Russia’s war on Ukraine. 12.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault action in the area of Synkivka, Ivanivka, Stelmakhivka and Nadiya where Ukrainian Armed forces repelled 7 Russian attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assaults with the support of aviation near Serebryansk forestry. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 10 enemy attacks near Khromove, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in their attempts to encircle Avdiivka employing aviation. Ukrainian troops steadfastly hold the defense and inflict losses on the enemy. The enemy’s offensive actions in the areas of Avdiivka, Severne, Tonenke and Pervomaiske, where the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 18 attacks, failed. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted assault actions with support of the aviation in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. Ukrainian troops repelled 22 attacks in this area. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy carried out unsuccessful assaults with the support of aviation near Vuhledar, Zolota Nyva and Staromayorske. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhya direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault actions with the support of the aviation near Robotyne. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflict losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct counter-battery warfare and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the western parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They made progress in the Avdiivka area.

General conclusion:

• The main objective of the Russian Armed Forces on the Kupyansk-Lyman direction is to capture the city of Kupyansk.
• The Russian tactic of storming Ukrainian fortifications in the forested area of Donbas will not lead to their wider operational breakthrough anywhere on the front.
• Russian Armed Forces lack the capacity to train sufficient personnel for a front-scale offensive operation required for a significant advance in Ukraine.
• The employment of Russian Special Purpose units as conventional assault infantry under the direction of the general army command causes them damage and unjustified losses;
• The decision to deploy units of the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade instead of the 70th, 291st and 201st Motorized Rifle Regiments on the Tokmak direction did not prove advantageous for the adversary.
• The enemy failed to restore the defense along the first position west of Verbove and east of Novoprokopivka.
• The enemy command has so far refrained from deploying its main forces of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Army and units of the 7th Air Assault Division, which have been transferred to the Kherson direction, to the first position of its main defense line along the Oleshky – Nova Kakhovka riverside road.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 80 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked northeast of Petropavlivka, near Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Stelmakhivka, near Nadia, Novoyehorivka, Nevske, Serebryansk forestry.
• Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Synkivka, Zahoruykivka, Dibrova, and Grekivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the troops of the “Khortytsia” OSG repulsed Russian assaults near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. Russian troops unsuccessfully tried to recapture positions near the railway near Klishchiivka and to capture the dominant tactical heights near Klishchiivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian troops advanced to the eastern outskirts of Stepove and secured their positions across the railway track southeast of the village, in the wooded area to the north, and south of Avdiivka in the area of the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant. They attacked with the support of aviation near Maryinka, Novomykhailivka and Vuhledar.
• Troops of the “Tavriya” OSG repelled Russian attacks to the east of Novokalynove, Stepove, Avdiivka, Severne, Pervomaiske and south of Tonenke. They conducted several local counterattacks near Avdiivka, from Novokalynove towards Krasnohorivka, and northeast of Vodyane.
• Berdyansk direction: the enemy conducted several unsuccessful assaults near Zolota Nyva and Staromayorske.
• Russian troops attacked in the vicinity of Staromayorske and Novodonetske, but failed to advance.
• Tokmak direction: the troops of the “Tavriya” OSG attacked along the H08 road and came close to the western and southwestern outskirts of Novopokrivka. They advanced to the northwest of Verbove, and forced the Russian troops to withdraw from the 140 height in Verbove.
• Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked in the vicinity of Robotyne, made minor progress to the northwest of Verbove, and captured Ukrainian prisoners of war in the area. The enemy’s 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade was forced to leave its advanced positions west of Robotyne. In the crucial sector in the area of Novoprokopivka and east of it, the enemy also had to withdraw to their fortified positions on the first position of their main defense line, particularly, in the area of two key heights, 160 and 170, following a series of counterattacks.
• The enemy grouping in this direction is predominantly composed of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army, reinforced by units of the 7th, 76th Air Assault Division and 44th Airborne Division. There is a clear trend of the growing number of mobilized conscripts instead of professional military personnel, resulting in irrevocable losses (KIA).
• Kherson direction: troops of the “Odesa” OSG attacked near Poyma and Pishchanivka and partially succeeded in the wooded areas south of Krynky, where combat engagements  continue.
• Russian troops struck Ukrainian units in the north-eastern part of Bilohrudy Island.
• The enemy operates against the strongholds of the “Odesa” OSG on the left bank of the Dnipro River with limited forces, including the 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army, the 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade, the 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade of the 22nd Army Corps of the 18th Army, the 24th and 26th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Army, 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 40th Army Corps, 171st Separate Airborne Assault Battalion of the 7th Separate Airborne Assault Division, 177th Separate Marines Regiment of the Caspian Fleet. The 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet is concentrated in the Korsunka area.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there was 1 Russian ship on combat duty in the Black Sea; there was 1 enemy ship in the Azov Sea and 2 in the Mediterranean Sea, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total salvo of the sea launched cruise missiles is 8 missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:

• Units of the 137th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division and the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division operate near Bakhmut.
• The 70th Motorized Rifle Division is concentrated in the area of Klyny – Druzhne – Skadovka – Petropavlivka, around the villages of Tarasivka and Brylivka (28th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 17th Tank Regiment and 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment). The 171st Separate Airborne Assault Battalion of the 7th Air Assault Division is engaged in the Poyma – Antonivskyi direction. The 104th Tank Battalion, the 162nd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 7th Air Assault Division and the division’s headquarters are probably concentrated in the area of Marchenko – Chorna Dolyna – Magdalynivka – Morozivka.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian military command will intensify its efforts in the Avdiivka direction, primarily in the area of Stepove and the Avdiivka coke-chemical plant, with the aim of encircling Avdiivka.
• The command of the enemy’s “Dniepr” Operational Grouping will seek tactical solutions to counter the expansion of the “Odesa” OSG bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
• Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and their capacity to launch a large-scale offensive, which could impede the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
• In the near future, we should expect intensive Russian attempts, if not to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgeheads, at least to block, isolate and reduce them. Primarily, the enemy will try to disrupt the logistical support routes for the advanced units of the “Odesa” OSG on the left bank.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.11.23

Personnel – almost 311,750   people (+1,100);

Tanks – 5,349 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 10,073 (+32);

Artillery systems – 7,559 (+32);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 881 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 580 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 9,944 (+19);

Aircraft – 322 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,632 (+12);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,560 (+1);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 110 towns and villages and 41 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• The Russian forces seriously damaged the regional library in Kherson by shelling. Authorities report severe damage to the building, and a fire broke out, taking 1.5 hours to extinguish.
• On November 11, three civilians were killed in Donetsk Oblast. The overall  number of civilian casualties in the region (excluding the occupied Volnovakha and Mariupol) has increased to 1,769 deaths and 4,294 injuries.
• During the occupation of Kherson Oblast, the Russian military deliberately killed 216 civilians. Additionally,  more than 800 people died as a result of Russian shelling after the liberation of the Right Bank, Kherson Oblast Prosecutor reported.
• The occupation authorities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast open more “administrative services centers” which continue to issue Russian passports. In Melitopol, two additional shops in different areas of the city were seized for the purpose of establishing administrative offices to process and distribute these documents, as reported by Ivan Fedorov, the legally elected mayor of Melitopol.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent