Russia’s war on Ukraine. 17.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted assault operations in the areas of Synkivka and Petropavlivka, where Ukrainian troops repelled four attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Bilohorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, Russian troops launched assaults near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. Ukrainian troops repelled 18 attacks in this sector. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on the achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Russian forces’ offensive actions failed east of Stepove, Avdiivka, and Pervomaiske. Ukrainian troops repelled 17 attacks in this area. On the Maryinka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 19 Russian attacks in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian troops conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Robotyne and west of Verbove, where Ukrainian forces repelled 6 attacks. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflict losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct counter-battery warfare, pushing the enemy away from coastal firing positions and inflicting damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, In the area of Robotyne, to the northeast of Vasylivka, and advanced in the Avdiivka area.

General conclusion:

• The Russian Aerospace Forces changed the timing of air strikes on November 16, deviating from the usual pattern by conducting strikes at approximately 9:30 in the morning. Previously airstrikes typically occurred in the regular time frame of around 22:00 to 3:00-4:00 in the morning.
• The Russian authorities are enhancing air defense systems over the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 72 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the forces of the Russian 1st Tank Army captured positions near Ivanivka, and units of the 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade seized Ukrainian positions on the Siversk direction. The enemy repelled Ukrainian attacks near Synkivka, Zahoruykivka, and near Dibrova.
• The forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG repelled Russian attacks near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, and Nadiya. Battles continue near Tymkivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian forces continued assault operations south of Bakhmut. They advanced southeast of Andriivka, attacked southwest of the Mayorske concrete plant ruins, and repelled 24 Russian attacks near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
• Russian troops repelled Ukrainian attacks near Bakhmut and Klishchiivka, making incremental advances “meter by meter” from the Berkhivka reservoir towards Bohdanivka, and regained previously lost positions along the railway tracks near Andriivka and Klishchiivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces slightly advanced to the north of the Avdiivka coking plant, to the northwest of Avdiivka, capturing several positions near the plant and the 230 “Terikon” height. They also advanced to the northwest of Krasnohorivka towards Berdychi, pushing towards the industrial zone of Avdiivka along the Yasynuvata road. They attacked near Severne, unsuccessfully attacked near Novokalynove, Avdiivka, Maryinka, and to the east of Stepove and Pervomaiske. Ukrainian forces repelled attacks near Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction, the “Tavriya” OSG forces are repelling Russian attacks to the west of Novodonetske and have regained several positions in that area.
• Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Staromayorske, Prechystivka, and Novodarivka. Units of the 336th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Baltic Fleet are operating in the area between Hulyaipole and Velyka Novosilka.
• Tokmak direction: Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions directly west of Robotyne, west of Verbove. They made marginal advance to the northeast of Vasylivka,  500-600 meters near Pyatykhatky.
• The “Tavria” OSG forces  attempted to advance near Kopani, Rivne, Novoprokopivka, and Verbove, in the direction of Novofedorivka. They achieved success towards Novopokrivka.
• Kherson direction, the “Odesa” OSG forces continued larger-than-usual operations on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast and advanced near Krynky.
• Russian forces launched strikes on Ukrainian positions in the northeastern part of Krynky. Battles are ongoing near Poyma, Pishchanivka, and Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 2 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, including 1 cruise missile carrier; there was 1 enemy ship in the Azov Sea and 2 in the Mediterranean Sea, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total salvo of the sea launched cruise missiles is 16 missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:

• The Russian forces have established a military base in Mangush, which includes a fuel depot, at least 10 combat armored vehicles, four air defense systems, a command post, and a headquarters.

Escalation indicators:

• The quantity of the sea-launched cruise missiles on combat duty has been doubled. The adversary has concentrated over 800 missiles in Crimea, including “Kalibr” and “Oniks” missiles, indicating the intention to deploy them against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the winter of 2023.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive, capable of disrupting the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
• Over the next week, the adversary’s tactical group attacks from the areas of Korsunka and Kozachi Lagery along the riverside road Oleshky – Nova Kakhovka can be expected, with a general direction towards Krynky.
• The “Tavriya” OSG has two viable routes for breaching towards Tokmak: either through Novoprokopivka – Solodka Balka – Chervonohirka or through Myrne – crossing the first position of the primary defense line in the area of Peremozhne – Ternuvate – Stepove, and further, through positions along the Novohorivka – Chystopillia line in the direction of Pokrovske.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 17.11.23

Personnel – almost 316,760  people (+1140);

Tanks 5,415 (+27);

Armored combat vehicles – 10,132 (+11);

Artillery systems – 7,712 (+29);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 895 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 585 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,077 (+17);

Aircraft – 323 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,709 (+20);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,563 (0);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 108 towns and villages and 31 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 9 people are reported dead and 8 people are reported injured in Kherson Oblast. 1 person was injured in Khmelnytskyi Oblast and two in Donetsk Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 10 “Shahed” combat drones during the night on November 17, 9 enemy drones were successfully destroyed.
• The Commission on Determining the Fact of Deprivation of Personal Freedom as a Result of Armed Aggression by Russia against Ukraine has already confirmed the captivity of 4,337 individuals, including 3,574 military personnel and 763 civilians.
• More than 2,400 Ukrainian children aged 6 to 17 were illegally taken to Belarus since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a Yale University study found
• Russian forces have carried out a “passport raid” in the occupied Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, as reported by the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. During this operation, the occupiers surveyed buildings to collect passport applications. Residents had their fingerprints taken, and men were issued summons for “data clarification” to fake military enlistment offices, the Center said.
• The [Russian] occupiers continue to violate the technical requirements for operating equipment at the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, primarily on energy units 2, 4, and 6, as reported by the National Nuclear Energy Generating Company “Energoatom.” This increases the likelihood of a nuclear accident.Top of Form

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