Russia’s war on Ukraine. 18.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted assault operations in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Ivanivka, where Ukrainian troops repelled 4 attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations north of Serebryanka. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 11 Russian attacks in the areas of Vasyukivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on the achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. Russian offensive actions failed near Keramik, east of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, and south of Tonenke, where Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 23 attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, where Ukrainian forces repelled 21 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy carried out assault actions south of Vodyane but failed. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian troops conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Robotyne and west of Verbove, where Ukrainian forces repelled 3 attacks. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflict losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct counter-battery warfare, pushing the enemy away from coastal firing positions and inflicting damage on the enemy’s rear areas. Marine infantry units, together with other components of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, continue to hold positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River. Over the past day, they repelled 12 Russian attacks in this sector. Ukrainian Defense Forces are consolidating on captured positions and delivering fire strikes to the Russian occupiers.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, and advanced in certain sectors of the front.

General conclusion:

• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces carried out three times more ground strikes compared to the Lyman-Kupyansk direction.
• Russian forces operating near Bakhmut are experiencing a shortage of ammunition and optical equipment, resulting in weak counter-battery capabilities.
• Russian efforts to obstruct the “Odesa” OSG crossings along the Dnipro River failed to prevent the Ukrainian Defense Forces from deploying additional personnel and equipment to their bridgeheads.
• The command of the Russian “Dnieper” Operational Grouping is establishing a defense based on the “Surovikin Line” model.
• The deployment of A-50 aircraft by the enemy is an attempt to counter the deployment of the F16 fighters by the Ukrainian Air Force.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 67 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assault actions near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, and Bilohorivka. They advanced towards Tymkivka and are consolidating on the outskirts of the village, improving their tactical position near Torske. The enemy repelled attacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Synkivka, Zahoruykivka, and Bilohorivka. The Russian military is still regrouping in the direction of Kupyansk-Lyman and is not advancing.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces advanced southeast of Pivdenne, attacked near Klishchiivka, Zalizne, Rozdolivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka.
• Russian forces advanced near the Berkhivka reservoir towards Bohdanivka and unsuccessfully attacked near Vasyukivka and Ivanivske.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have slightly advanced in the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka, near Stepove, west of Krasnohorivka, towards Novokalynove and Ocheretyne, and in the area of the Avdiivka coking plant northwest of Avdiivka and the industrial zone. The enemy unsuccessfully attacked near Keramik, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, east of Novobakhmutivka, south of Tonenke, Maryinka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane.
• Combat engagements continue south of Severne, north of Krasnohorivka towards Novokalynove, near Stepove, the industrial zone, and the Avdiivka coking plant.
• Forces of the “Tavria” OSG attacked near Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Mykilske.
• Berdyansk direction: Russian forces advanced east of Urozhaine and conducted an unsuccessful assault near Staromayorske.
• Forces of the “Tavria” OSG repelled a Russian assault west of Novodonetske.
• Tokmak direction: Forces of the “Tavria” OSG made slight progress to the southwest of Robotyne, attacking Russian positions between Robotyne and Kopani, attempting to advance towards Novoprokopivka and Rivne. They repelled over 6 Russian assaults near Robotyne and west of Verbove.
• Russian forces launched counterattacks on the Robotyne – Novoprokopivka – Verbove line and secured new positions near Novoprokopivka.
• Kherson direction: battles are ongoing near Poyma, Pishchanivka, and Krynky. Forces of the “Odesa” OSG maintain positions in the center of Krynky, controlling a 10 km2 area around the village. They repelled 6 Russian attacks on the eastern bank.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces are attempting to cross the river on the Poyma – Krynky line and transferring military equipment and personnel to Ukrainian positions on the eastern bank.
• Forces of the “Odesa” OSG on the eastern bank conduct sabotage, raids, and reconnaissance operations, including monitoring Russian positions to gather intelligence on Russian logistical support and ammunition storage locations.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there was 1 Russian ship on combat duty in the Black Sea; there was 1 enemy ship in the Azov Sea and 2 in the Mediterranean Sea, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total salvo of the sea launched cruise missiles is 8 missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:

• Units of the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army of the Eastern Military District operate near Vuhledar.
• On November 10, in the Hola Prystan district of Kherson Oblast, the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army suffered significant losses from the Ukrainian artillery shelling.
• The Russian Aerospace Forces started using the A-50 early warning and control aircraft to identify targets for their S-400 air defense systems.
• Units of the Russian 247th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division received and began using remotely controlled machine gun platforms for PKT machine guns near Verbove.

Escalation indicators:

• Israel seeks  global deliveries of large quantities of 155mm artillery shells thus slowing down the delivery of artillery shells to Ukraine.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive, capable of disrupting the Defense Forces resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
• The “Tavriya” OSG has two viable routes for breaching towards Tokmak: either through Novoprokopivka – Solodka Balka – Chervonohirka or through Myrne – crossing the first position of the primary defense line in the area of Peremozhne – Ternuvate – Stepove, and further, through positions along the Novohorivka – Chystopillia line in the direction of Pokrovske.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 18.11.23 

Personnel – almost 317,380  people (+620);

Tanks – 5,422 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 10,141 (+9);

Artillery systems – 7, 726 (+14);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 896 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 586 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,091 (+14);

Aircraft – 323 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,726 (+17);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,563 (0);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 140 towns and villages and 83 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. In Donetsk Oblast, three people were injured, and in Kherson Oblast, three civilians were injured and one killed. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night of November 18, Ukraine was attacked by several waves of Shahed-type attack UAVs. The Air Forces successfully shot down 29 out of 38 attack drones. An energy infrastructure facility was hit in Odesa District, resulting in one employee being injured and hospitalized. Power supplies were cut to 2 thousand residents. An oil depot was also hit in Odesa Oblast.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, 283 children have been evacuated from the dangerous communities of Kupyansk district; 12 more minors still need to be evacuated.
• The bulk carrier Georgia S, flying the flag of Liberia and loaded with wheat, was heading from the port of Pivdenny to the port of Constanta when it sustained damage in open waters. The vessel likely hit a floating sea mine.

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