Russia’s war on Ukraine. 19.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted assault operations near Synkivka and east of Petropavlivka, where the Defense Forces repelled 7 attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy carried out assault actions in the Torske area without success. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 8 enemy attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on the achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces maintain a resilient defense, inflicting losses on the enemy. The enemy’s offensive actions east of Keramik, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, and Avdiivka were unsuccessful. The Defense Forces repelled 26 enemy attacks in this area. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assaults in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. Ukrainian troops repelled 22 attacks in this sector. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy carried out unsuccessful assault actions near Staromayorske, where the Defense Forces repelled 3 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy conducted assault actions near Robotyne, Novoprokopivka, and west of Verbove without success. The Defense Forces continue the offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, causing losses to Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct counter-battery warfare, pushing the enemy away from coastal firing positions and inflicting damage on the enemy’s rear areas. The Defense Forces continue to hold positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River.

Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove line, near Bakhmut and  Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, and advanced in the areas of Avdiivka and Donetsk.

General conclusion: 

• On the Kupyansk direction, the adversary’s command is undergoing another force and resource regrouping for the continuation of offensive actions.
• Due to adverse weather conditions, Russian forces are reducing the use of armored vehicles on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line.
• Previous enemy attempts to breach Kupyansk from the north and west have not yielded any significant results. Synkivka remains under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, and the enemy has failed to reach the Ivanivka–Kyslivka line or break through to the R07 highway from the side of Pershotravneve.
• The adversary is focusing its principal efforts in the tactical zone on the Kupyansk direction, in the vicinity of Pershotravneve.
• In the Lyman Pershyi – Synkivka sector, adversary forces from the 1427th and 1843rd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Territorial Troops are positioned as a reinforcement echelon behind the 138th and 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades.
• In the last two days, Russian forces on the Avdiivka direction have not employed heavy military equipment, reduced the use of aviation, and increasingly rely on infantry.
• Predominantly, military operations on the Berdyansk direction involves UAVs and corresponding counter-drone measures.
• Russian assault units “Shtorm” and “Shtorm-Z” persist in sustaining substantial casualties, with certain units maintaining merely 10-15% of their original strength. Roughly one-third of all Russian prisoners of war consist of former convicts from the “Shtorm-Z” units.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 71 combat engagements on various fronts. 
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces launched unsuccessful attacks near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, towards Lyman near Torske, and to the north of Serebryanka. They effectively consolidated positions near Tymkivka. Two assault groups from the 138th and 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades (up to a platoon without armored vehicles) attacked in the direction of Lyman Pershyi–Synkivka, displacing the forward units of the “Khortytsia” OSG from two platoon strongholds. The artillery fire of the Defense Forces thwarted their attempt to advance further. Southwest of Pershotravneve, a platoon with two BMPs from the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army attempted to break through towards Pishchane and the P07 road but encountered fire and withdrew. Two assault groups from the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Combined Arms Army, supported by mortar fire, attempted reconnaissance by combat to the southwest of Dibrova in the direction of the power substation. The attempt was repelled by the fire of the forward units of the “Khortytsia” OSG. Several assault groups from the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division attempted to covertly approach Torske north of the Kreminna – Zarichne road but were detected and repelled.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces attacked near Synkivka, Dibrova, and Grekivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces continued their advance to the north and south of Bakhmut, attacking the outskirts of Klishchiivka and displacing Ukrainian units from positions near Bohdanivka.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled Russian assaults near Vasyukivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka, but lost control over the Klishchiivka railway station.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces made slight progress to the north of the Avdiivka coking plant and in the industrial zone on the southeast outskirts of Avdiivka. They also advanced west and southwest of Donetsk towards Maryinka, capturing several positions near the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant. They continue their advance to the south of the 230 “Terikon” height, making progress near the railway to the north of Avdiivka, and consolidating control over positions near Stepove. The enemy launched assaults on Severne, advanced toward Tonenke, and achieved limited territorial gains in the northwest part of Maryinka.

• Battles are primarily concentrated in the direction of Ocheretyne, Novokalynove, and the Avdiivka coking plant.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks east of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, south of Tonenke, near Keramik, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and south of Vodyane.
• Berdyansk direction: Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Urozhaine and unsuccessfully attacked near Staromayorske.
• Tokmak direction: the “Tavriya” OSG forces continued offensive operations on the Melitopol direction, attacking near Novoprokopivka, Verbove, and between Novofedorivka and Verbove.
• Russian forces repelled four Ukrainian attacks near Robotyne. Russian attacks in this area were unsuccessful. Their attempts to advance near Novoprokopivka also ended without success.
• Kherson direction: the “Odesa” OSG forces repelled 12 enemy attacks. They maintain  positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River. With artillery support, they launched attacks near Poyma, Pishchanivka, and Krynky while continuing to deploy additional personnel to the east bank.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational zone, 2 enemy ships, including 1 carrier of cruise missiles, were on combat duty in the Mediterranean Sea. The total salvo of cruise missiles is 8 rockets.

Change in enemy disposition:

• To escalate its efforts on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy’s “Zapad” Operational Grouping command has deployed its core forces of the 11th Army Corps – the 18th Motorized Rifle Division, in addition to the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment. Specifically, the 79th Motorized Rifle Regiment has taken its position in the second echelon of the 6th Army. Units of the 11th Tank Regiment have commenced their advance towards Pershotravneve.
• The adversary is shifting units from the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps of the Russian Baltic Fleet, including a motorized rifle company from the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment, in the Pershotravneve area. South of the village, an assault company from the “Shtorm” detachment of the 11th Tank Regiment has concentrated.
• Along the Kuzemivka–Kolomyichikha line, the adversary is consolidating the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army. Units of the 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment from the Operational Group “Kursk” will take its (brigade’s) positions in the Raigorodka area.
• The 36th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division, 25th Combined Arms Army, is maneuvering forward from Chervonopopivka, positioning itself closer to the front line in preparation for an attack toward Makiyivka.
• In the Holikove area, the enemy command is reorganizing units from the composition of the 488th and 283rd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army, which suffered losses in previous battles. They are gearing up for an advance towards Nevske and Makiivka. Units are being replenished with anti-tank means from the resources of the 59th Tank Regiment.

Escalation indicators:

• Russian forces have started using multi-purpose cluster munitions “Scalpel” in Ukraine.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive capable of disrupting the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations remains improbable.
• The “Tavriya” OSG has two viable routes for breaching towards Tokmak: either through Novoprokopivka – Solodka Balka – Chervonohirka or through Myrne – crossing the first position of the primary defense line in the area of Peremozhne – Ternuvate – Stepove, and further, through positions along the Novohorivka – Chystopillia line in the direction of Pokrovske.
• On the Lyman direction, there are growing indications that the adversary will imminently launch another endeavor to displace the Defense Forces units beyond the Chornyi Zherebets River in its lower reaches.
• The adversary’s military command intends to deploy units from the 35th, 55th, and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army within the “Center” operational grouping, along with the 67th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Combined Arms Army, to launch an offensive near Nevske, Terny, and Yampolivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 19.11.23 

Personnel – almost 318,570 people (+1,190); 

Tanks – 5,435 (+13); 

Armored combat vehicles – 10,166 (+25); 

Artillery systems – 7,744 (+18);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 898 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 588 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,120 (+29);

Aircraft – 323 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,755 (+29);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,563 (0);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian+general

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 128 towns and villages and 89 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Two civilians were reported injured in Donetsk Oblast and two in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified. 
• Overall, during the night of November 19, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 15 out of 20 Shahed-136/131 attack UAVs over Ukraine, including downing 10 UAVs over Kyiv Oblast, and one over Cherkasy Oblast. 
• For the second consecutive night, Russian forces conducted a UAV assault on Kyiv Oblast. The air raid lasted for almost 5 hours. An infrastructure target sustained damage. Preliminary reports indicate no casualties or injuries, and the resulting fire has been extinguished.
• Russian artillery shelling of Kherson in the middle of the day on November 19 resulted in 5 people being injured, including a 3 year old girl. The girl is currently in the intensive care unit.
• Bohdan Yermokhin, who was deported from Mariupol to the Russian Federation and had received a summons in Russia, has returned to Ukraine, the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets, reported. The return resulted from collaboration of the Ombudsman’s office with Qatar, UNICEF, and the Embassy of Ukraine in Belarus, following negotiations with the Russian side.

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