Russia’s war on Ukraine. 22.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted assault operations in the areas of Synkivka and east of Petropavlivka, where the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled three enemy attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy carried out unsuccessful assault actions near Siversk. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled five Russian attacks near Klishchiivka and east of Pivdenne. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on the achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. Russian offensive actions east of Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Severne, and Pervomaiske failed. The Ukrainian defense forces repelled 13 attacks on this sector. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. Ukrainian troops repelled 18 attacks in this area. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the Russian forces attempted assault operations near Staromayorske but did not succeed. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy carried out unsuccessful assault actions in the areas of Robotyne and Kamianske. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflict losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, the Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct counter-battery warfare, pushing the enemy away from coastal firing positions and inflicting damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces continued their offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and slightly advanced in certain sectors of the front.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces continue their advance on the Kupyansk direction, despite the snow and freezing temperatures. The number of attacks has decreased due to the weather conditions; however, Russian forces will not fully cease their offensive operations.
• Adverse weather conditions pose challenges for both Russian and Ukrainian forces in deploying UAVs, hindering their use for artillery fire correction across the entire front.
• The poor road condition impede the movement of military vehicles, yet both Ukrainian and Russian forces persist in maneuvering and conducting operations on all fronts.
• Russian forces are increasing the use of glide bombs on the Lyman direction.
• Russian forces are increasingly deploying armored vehicles for assaults southeast of Avdiivka, where there is asphalt, and continue employing infantry for advances on flanks where there is dirt terrain.
• The density of enemy forces and assets of the Russian “Dniepr” Operational Grouping in Kherson Oblast is 2 tanks, 2 artillery pieces, and 4 Armored Combat Vehicles per 1 kilometer of the front, posing challenges for their concentration/massing on selected directions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 48 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Synkivka, east of Petropavlivka, and near Siversk. “Akhmat” Chechen units operate in the wooded area near Kreminna and in other locations on the Lyman direction.
• Russian forces are deploying reserves and regrouping on the Lyman direction to intensify the pace of their advance towards Lyman Pershyi – Synkivka, Pershotravneve – Height 231, Kuzemivka – Berestove, towards the Kyslivka – Ivanivka line to accelerate the advance to the outskirts of Kupyansk.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG troops advanced in the area of Zahoruykivka, near Kreminna, Kuzmyne, and in the area of Serebryansk Forest.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG troops continued assault operations south of Bakhmut, attacked near Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka, repelled Russian attacks east of Pivdenne.
• Russian forces advanced near Berkhivka reservoir and in Klishchiivka. On the Horlivka direction, the Russian 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Army are in a defense stance.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced to the north of Krasnohorivka, in Stepove, in the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka. Battles are ongoing near the Avdiivka coking plant in the northeast, near Novokalynove.
• The enemy continues to build up efforts in the direction of Oleksandrivka – Novomykhailivka. It has deployed the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army to the operation for this purpose.
• Overall, on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy grouping consists of the 114^th and 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Combined Arms Army, the 15th and 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 2nd Army Corps. They are advancing in the direction of Krasnohorivka – Stepove, Height 230 – Avdiivka coking plant, Kamyanka – sand quarry, and Krasnohorivka – Novokalynove/Keramik.
• The “Tavriya” OSG troops repelled Russian attacks east of Novobakhmutivka, near Stepove, Avdiivka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, and attacked near the “Yasynuvata-2” railway station.
• Berdyansk direction, the “Tavriya” OSG troops attacked to the northwest of Pryiutne.
• Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked to the west of Staromayorske, to the north of Pryiutne, and near Urozhaine. Positional battles are ongoing near Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
• Tokmak direction: Forces of the “Tavriya” OSG attacked to the east of Robotyne, near Verbove and Novoprokopivka.
• Units of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army repelled Ukrainian attacks near Robotyne and Novoprokopivka. Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Kamianske and to the northwest of Verbove. They advanced towards Novofedorivka, near Robotyne, Novoprokopivka, and Verbove.
• Kherson direction, the “Odesa” OSG forces attacked from Krynky and entered the wooded area near the village, continuing to hold positions in Krynky, near the Antonivka automobile bridge, and the small railway bridge.
• Over the past few days, the enemy has managed to slightly narrow the foothold of the “Odesa” OSG in the Krynky area, primarily the flanks. Russian forces have advanced to the northeast of Krynky. North of Pidstepne, the forward units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to maintain control over the territory of the solar power plant and the adjacent area. Separate small infantry groups of the “Odesa” OSG managed to cross the Konka River towards Oleshky and are already located between it and the Chayka River west of the city.
• The enemy deployed into operation units from the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, 177th Separate Marines Unit of the Caspian Fleet, and the 328th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 104th Air Assault Division. This grouping is constantly reinforced by units of “Storm-Z” from the side of Korsunka. Despite significant losses in weapons and military equipment, the enemy’s forward units persistently engage in offensive actions, primarily along the riverside road from Oleshky to Nova Kakhovka, from the side of Kozachi Laheri and Korsunka. This impedes the “Odesa” OSG from expanding its foothold, especially towards the T2206 road and the wooded area in front of it.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 5 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea; there were 2 enemy ships in the Mediterranean Sea, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total salvo of the sea launched cruise missiles is 8 missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:

• The enemy has moved an additional motorized rifle battalion from the 153rd Tank Regiment (the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army) to the sector northeast of Lyman Pershyi. They are increasing the density of mine barriers from Lyman Pershyi to Vilshana. The operational deployment of the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the area of Kuzemivka – Storozhivka – Pidkuychansk – Kryvoshiivka is ongoing. The 288th Artillery Brigade of the 1st Tank Army is also deploying to the same area. North of Kuzemivka, at least 2 “Storm” assault companies of the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps have been transferred. To counter Ukrainian Defense Forces’ UAVs, 2 “Sapphire” EW complexes from the 16th EW Separate Brigade have been deployed.in the Masyutivka – Horobyivka – Vilshana – Lyman Pershyi area.
• The deployment of the 1436th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops is being completed in Horlivka. It will be deployed into the operation in the defense sector of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps. The regiment consists of 2 motorized rifle battalions and a tank battalion, and its command post is deployed in Horlivka.
• The ongoing repositioning of the 90th Tank Division from the Lyman direction to the Avdiivka direction is in progress. The replacement of units from the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90^th Tank Division with units from the 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment has started.
• On the Kherson direction, units of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet are in action.
• On the Tokmak direction, the enemy’s command has reintroduced the 56th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division north of Verbove.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive, capable of disrupting the Defense Forces resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
• On the Lyman direction, there are growing indications that the adversary will imminently launch another endeavor to displace the Defense Forces units beyond the Chornyi Zherebets River in its lower reaches.
• The Russian 20th Combined Arms Army includes two full-fledged motorized rifle divisions (the 3rd and 144th). Together with the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Army, the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 11th Separate Tank Brigade, it is fully capable of forming a strike group on the Lyman direction for an offensive towards Kreminna – Zarichne.
• The adversary’s military command intends to deploy units from the 35th, 55th, and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army within the “Center” operational grouping, along with the 67th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Combined Arms Army, to launch an offensive near Nevske, Terny, and Yampolivka.
• The “Tavriya” OSG has two viable routes for breaching towards Tokmak: either through Novoprokopivka – Solodka Balka – Chervonohirka or through Myrne – crossing the first position of the primary defense line in the area of Peremozhne – Ternuvate – Stepove, and further, through positions along the Novohorivka – Chystopillia line in the direction of Pokrovske.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 22.11.23 

Personnel – almost 320,670 people (+850);

Tanks 5,446 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 10,188 (+14);

Artillery systems – 7,769 (+17);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 899 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 589 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,159 (+25);

Aircraft – 323 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,784 (+13);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,564 (0);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 123 towns and villages and 102 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. One civilian was reported dead and 7 were reported injured in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the night of November 22, Ukrainian air defense destroyed all 14 Russian “Shahed-131/136” drones and one X-22 cruise missile launched at Ukraine.
• On November 22, “Ukrenergo” has recorded a deficit of electricity in Ukraine’s energy system. The “Ukrenergo” dispatch center anticipates that the deficit may increase in the evening hours due to increased consumption caused by cold weather, increased accident rates at power plant units, and insufficient volumes of electricity imports from the EU.
• According to the UN, one in five families in Ukraine faces food shortages due to the war.  The situation is particularly dire for over 900 thousand people residing within 30 kilometers of the front line.
• In Kherson Oblast, around 220 children still need to be evacuated from hazardous areas. 573 children with their families have been evacuated after October 24.

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