Russia’s war on Ukraine. 23.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted assault operations in the areas of Synkivka and east of Petropavlivka, where the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled three enemy attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy carried out assault actions near Siversk without success. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled five enemy attacks near Klishchiivka and east of Pivdenne. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment and consolidating their positions on the achieved front lines.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The enemy’s offensive actions were unsuccessful east of Novobakhmutivka, north of Lastochkine, Avdiivka, and Pervomaiske. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 30 attacks. On the Maryinka direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 18 enemy attacks in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault actions near Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy attempted to regain lost positions in the Robotyne area four times without success. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses on the Russian forces in personnel and equipment and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River, conduct counter-battery warfare, and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas. 

Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, northwest of Horlivka, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the east bank in Kherson Oblast. They advanced south of Synkivka.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces are increasingly using glide bombs, in particular FAB-500, KAB-500 and RPK-500 aerial bombs equipped with the UMPK kit, on the Lyman and Kherson directions.
• Iran is producing diverse precision-guided munitions, including Ghaem, Sadid, and Balaban guided bombs, along with long-range precision-guided bombs like Yasin, to be utilized as armament for UAVs, including Shahed-131/136, and plans to deliver them to the Russian Federation. These munitions are adaptable for deployment on Su-25 aircraft.
• Russian forces have halted the use of cruise and ballistic missiles and have started employing guided KAB bombs, as well as Kh-59 and Kh-31 missiles, for strikes on Ukraine.
• Over the past day, there has been a surge of 25-30% in Russian artillery and airstrikes targeting Ukrainian positions on the northern and southern flanks of Avdiivka.
• Current weather conditions do not affect the pace of combat operations on the Avdiivka direction. The reduction of foliage due to cold weather in this area improves visibility for defenders, enabling early detection of the enemy.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 74 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have limited progress to the east of Synkivka and in the area of Serebryansk Forest. The enemy unsuccessfully attacked near Ivanivka, northeast and east of Petropavlivka, and in the direction of Siversk. 
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces launched attacks near Kupyansk, south of Kreminna, Dibrova, and Torske.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces continued attacks near Bakhmut and assaults on Ukrainian positions near Klishchiivka, on tactical heights near Klishchiivka, near Khromove, and Bohdanivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian assault near Pivdenne and northwest of Horlivka and significantly intensified offensive operations near Avdiivka. They conducted a successful sudden attack, swiftly securing control of five buildings in the industrial zone on the southeast outskirts of Avdiivka and achieved success near Stepove.
• The “Tavriya” OSG troops repelled Russian counterattacks northwest of Horlivka in the Pivdenne area, 22 unsuccessful assaults to the east of Novobakhmutivka, north of Lastochkine, near Avdiivka, Severne, Pervomaiske, and 18 assaults near Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. They counterattacked near Stepove.
• Berdyansk direction: Russian units repelled a Ukrainian attack near Pryiutne and attempted to advance near Urozhaine. They counterattacked in the direction of Pryiutne and Staromayorske.
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks west of Staromayorske.
• Tokmak direction: Russian forces repelled 3 Ukrainian attacks north of Novoprokopivka, west of Verbove, near Robotyne. They launched an unsuccessful assault on Ukrainian positions near Robotyne and Kamianske.
• The “Tavriya” OSG troops continued to attack the Robotyne – Verbove line, near Novofedorivka.
• Kherson direction: The “Odesa” OSG forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Kherson Oblast, they maintained defend in Krynky, and launched attacks near Poyma, Pishchanivka, Pidstepne, Antonivsk Highway, and the railway bridge.
• Russian forces are advancing toward Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational zone, there were 2 enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, 1 enemy ship in the Azov Sea, and 1 enemy ship in the Mediterranean Sea.

Change in enemy disposition:

• In the vicinity of Raigorodka, the relocation of the motorized infantry battalion of the 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment (from the 47th Tank Division of 1st Tank Army) from the reserve of the Russian “Zapad(West)” Operational grouping has been completed. The unit was part of the group “Kursk”, responsible for safeguarding the state border. It was reinforced with mobilized personnel and underwent a month-long course of combat training and coordination. It took over the sector, replacing the reconnaissance company of the 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment. 
• Units of the 119th and 137th Air Assault Regiments of the 106th Air Assault Division operate in the Bakhmut direction.
• To the west of Novodonetsk, the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the Russian Eastern Military District is engaging in combat actions. 
• The 337th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 104th Airborne Assault Division is currently relocating to the Prydniprovsk direction. The airborne assault battalion of this regiment is also being relocated through Crimea. Toward the “Rostov-Zapadny (West)” railway station, the D-30 Howitzer division of the 1180th Artillery Regiment of the 104th Airborne Assault Division is transported by rail. The 328th Airborne Assault Regiment has been deployed into operation southeast of Krynka.
• The command of the enemy’s “Dniepr” Operational group has started the withdrawal of several units from the 810th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from the Krynka area. These units will be relocated to an area west of Oleshky.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive, capable of disrupting the Defense Force’s resource allocation for counteroffensive operations remains improbable.
• The adversary’s military command intends to deploy units from the 35th, 55th, and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army within the “Center” operational grouping, along with the 67th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Combined Arms Army, to launch an offensive near Nevske, Terny, and Yampolivka.
• The “Tavriya” OSG has two viable routes for breaching towards Tokmak: either through Novoprokopivka – Solodka Balka – Chervonohirka or through Myrne – crossing the first position of the primary defense line in the area of Peremozhne – Ternuvate – Stepove, and further, through positions along the Novohorivka – Chystopillia line in the direction of Pokrovske.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 23.11.23  

Personnel – almost 321,800 people (+1,130); 

Tanks – 5,466 (+20); 

Armored combat vehicles – 10,224 (+36); 

Artillery systems – 7,802 (+33);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 902 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 591 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,198 (+39);

Aircraft – 323 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,799 (+15);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,564 (0);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 112 towns and villages and 47 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Three civilians were reported killed and three more injured in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the morning of November 22 in Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, the Russian occupation forces employed a drone to carry out a lethal attack on a 70-year-old cyclist who was riding down the street, as reported by Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration.
• Since February 24, 2022, the National Police of Ukraine has received over 20,000 complaints concerning approximately 23,000 missing children.
• The construction of an underground school in Kharkiv, where an additional 900 children will attend in-person classes, is currently in progress. The existing subway school, established earlier, has experienced a significant increase in the number of students, surpassing 1,860 since the beginning of the year. Consequently, the school is facing a gradual shortage of capacity.
• Between November 17-21, in the occupied village of Chaplynka, Kherson Oblast, the Russian occupation authorities carried out a sweep to verify the possession of Russian passports among local residents and compile lists of men of draft age, the spokesman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Andriy Kovalev reported.
• According to an investigation by the Russian opposition publication “Vazhnye Istorii,” Sergey Mironov, the head of the Russian “Just Russia – For Truth” party, clandestinely adopted a 10-month-old girl who was kidnapped during the occupation of the Urainian Kherson by Russian troops. The “adoption” reportedly involved changing her name and citizenship.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent