Russia’s war on Ukraine. 25.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces with air support conducted assault operations in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka and Stelmakhivka, where Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 15 attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the area of the Serebryansk forestry. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 11 Russian attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on the achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy with air support persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Russian offensive actions east of Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, Severne and Pervomaiske were unsuccessful. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 30 attacks on this sector. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy with air support conducted assault operations in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, where Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Russian troops conducted no offensive(assault) operations. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy made seven unsuccessful attempts to regain the lost position near Robotyne and Novopokrivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflict losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River and to conduct counter-battery warfare and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces attacked along the Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and slightly advanced in certain sectors of the front.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces on the Bakhmut direction are prioritizing small-scale tactical gains, probing the front line, and conducting night strikes with UAVs.
• Russian troops have launched the “third wave” of the offensive as part of the Russian assault operation on the Avdiivka direction.
• In the Avdiivka area, enemy helicopters are compelled to operate at high altitudes to evade the air defense systems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• The tactical group of the Russian 18th Combined Arms Army is operating from the south of Krynky through the wooded terrain to the village’s south, from the side of Korsunka. Their objective is to impede the expansion of the Ukrainian foothold both in the eastern part of the village and in the area of the Pidstepnyi, Frolova, and Kaznachiyskiy Islands.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 74 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked to the northeast of Petropavlivka, near Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Stelmakhivka. They made slight progress to the east of Petropavlivka and conducted an unsuccessful attack from Orlianka.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces are advancing on the Svatove direction, launching attacks near Vilshana and Hryhorivka, with ongoing battles near Torske and in the area of Serebryansk Forest.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian troops continue advancing to the north of Klishchiivka. The enemy attacked in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Berkhivka reservoir, and the railway near Andriivka. Battles persisted near the railway to the north of Klishchiivka and on the heights west of the village.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces launched attacks to the northwest of Horlivka, near Mayorske, with combat clashes occurring near the waste heap northwest of Horlivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, The “Tavria” OSG forces counterattacked near Avdiivka to the southwest and west of Krasnohorivka.
• Russian troops advanced to the south of the Avdiivka coking plant, near the railway to the north and northwest of Krasnohorivka, close to the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka, Novobakhmutivka, Novokalynove, north of Lastochkyne, Stepove, Krasnohorivka, Pervomaiske, Opytne, Vodyane, Severne, Tonenke, towards Keramik, Berdychi, the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant to the south of Avdiivka, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka. They also conducted reconnaissance attacks near Stepove, Vodyane, and Severne, displacing Ukrainian forces from Stepove;  Ukrainian forces, however, still control a part of the village.
• Berdyansk direction, the adversary unsuccessfully stormed the “Tavriya” OSG positions near and to the southwest of Staromayorske, and attacked near Urozhaine.
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces launched attacks near Pryiutne, to the north of Pryiutne, and to the north of Novomayorske.
• Tokmak direction: The military units of the 7th Air Assault Division, in particular the 108th Air Assault Regiment, recaptured positions to the north of Verbove and are advancing to the southwest of Novopokrivka. The adversary unsuccessfully attempted to improve its positions near Robotyne and west of Verbove, repelling Ukrainian attacks.
• The “Tavriya” OSG forces took control over the westernmost trench approximately 1 km to the southwest of Robotyne and advanced further to the west. They made progress in the area of the T0408 Orikhiv – Tokmak road north of Novoprokopivka, between the outskirts of the aforementioned trench system and the northern outskirts of Novoprokopivka. They attacked Russian positions on the Robotyne – Verbove line.
• Kherson direction, the “Odesa” OSG forces intensified shelling in the wooded area near Krynky.
• Units from the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, and the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 40th Army Corps of the 18th Army counterattacked, displacing Ukrainian forces from their positions in the wooded areas near Krynky, where the units currently operate.
• In the area of Krynky, both sides have advanced, resulting in intense battles within the village, characterized by a frequent change in control. Fierce fighting continues along the Pishchanivka – Poyma line and on the Dachi – Oleshky direction. In the ongoing battles for Krynky, the adversary’s command is deploying “Storm-Z” assault with significant intensity. The enemy’s combat actions are supported by the firepower of the 227th Artillery Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army and the 8th Artillery Regiment of the 22nd Army Corps of the 18th Combined Arms Army.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 2 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea; there was 1 enemy ship in the Sea of Azov and 1 in the Mediterranean Sea, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 8 “Kalibr” missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Units of the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Baltic Fleet, including a unit equipped with the “Lancet” combat UAVs, operate near Vesele.
• Units of the 328th Air Assault Regiment of the 104th Air Assault Division, supported by a detachment from the 10th Separate SOF Brigade, operate from the southwest direction (from Kozachi Laheri village) towards Krynky.
• The command of the enemy “Dnieper” operational grouping has reinforcements in reserve for strengthening its formation in the Krynky area. Specifically, the 24th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, concentrated in the Radensk area, and the 33rd BARS detachment “Vasily Margelov”.
• The enemy has the 28th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 17th Tank Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, the 1044th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 214th Tank Regiment of the Russian Territorial Defense in the operational reserve.
• The 126th Separate Coastal Defence Brigade, the 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade of the 22nd Army Corps of the 18th Army, the 81st Separate Volunteer’s Brigade of Special Purpose “Medvedi,” and the 95th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 1st Army Corps operate in the area of Oleshky. The 1253^rd and 1044th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian Territorial Troops, and the “BARS” “Kherson” detachment can be swiftly moved to this direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive, capable of disrupting the Defense Forces resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
• The adversary’s military command intends to deploy units from the 35th, 55th, and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army within the “Center” operational grouping, along with the 67th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Combined Arms Army, to launch an offensive near Nevske, Terny, and Yampolivka.
• The “Tavriya” OSG has two viable routes for breaching towards Tokmak: either through Novoprokopivka – Solodka Balka – Chervonohirka or through Myrne – crossing the first position of the primary defense line in the area of Peremozhne – Ternuvate – Stepove, and further, through positions along the Novohorivka – Chystopillia line in the direction of Pokrovske.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 25.11.23 

Personnel – almost 323,760    people (+860);

Tanks 5,502 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 10,263 (+7);

Artillery systems – 7,851 (+18);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 905 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 596 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,259 (+29);

Aircraft – 323 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,808 (+8);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,565 (+1);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 117 towns and villages and 77 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the night of November 25, the enemy launched a record number of combat UAVs over Ukraine, specifically 75 “Shahed” drones, of which 74 were successfully intercepted and downed by Ukrainian air defense forces.
• On the night of November 25, the air raid alert in Kyiv lasted for 6 hours as Russia launched the biggest to date UAV attack on the city. Over 60 UAVs were downed over Kyiv. UAV debris fell in 5 districts of the city, injuring 5 people, including an 11 year old girl. A kindergarten caught fire and several buildings were damaged. The attack left 77 residential buildings and 120 institutions without electricity.
• Overnight, about a dozen Russian soldiers surrendered to the Ukrainian forces near Avdiivka, as confirmed by Oleksandr Shtupun, the spokesperson for the Unified Press Center of the Defense Forces of the Tavriya Direction.
• Only in the last two years, the Holodomor has been recognized as genocide by 17 parliaments, the European Parliament, and the PACE (Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe), whereas in all previous years, 15 countries had made such a recognition, the Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk said.

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