Russia’s war on Ukraine. 27.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Synkivka and Novoselivske, where the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attempted assault operations near the Serebryansk forestry but did not succeed. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 10 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and east of Pivnichne. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment and consolidating their positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy, with aviation support, persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces maintain a steadfast defense, inflicting losses on the Russian forces. The enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions east of Novobakhmutivka, south of Novokalynove, Severne, Stepove, Avdiivka, and Pervomaiske. Ukrainian troops repelled 30 attacks in this sector. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy, with aviation support, conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the Maryinka and Novomykhailivka areas. The Ukrainian troops repelled 7 attacks in this sector. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy did not conduct offensive (assault) actions. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Russian forces carried out unsuccessful assault operations west of Verbove. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operations on the Melitopol direction, causing losses to the occupation forces in personnel and equipment and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro, conduct counter-battery warfare, and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear targets. 

Russian forces attacked along the Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and slightly advanced in certain sectors.

General conclusion:

• The capture of the Avdiivka industrial zone will not enhance subsequent offensive maneuvers for Russian forces. They would be required to extend offensive to the other flanks of Avdiivka or mobilize additional personnel to attain rapid and conclusive outcomes.
• The recent progress of the Russian Armed Forces in the Avdiivka direction during the past week doesn’t pose a direct threat to the Defense Forces and, for the most part, doesn’t significantly affect the enemy’s objective of capturing Avdiivka but rather serves to broaden the front line.
• Over the past week, Russian forces conducted attacks near Novomykhailivka with the operational goal of reaching Vuhledar.
• The adversary’s logistic routes on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast are constantly under the threat of strikes by the “Odesa” OSG. The adversary’s “Dniepr” Operational Group capabilities to counter such attacks are limited.
• The “Dnieper” Operational Group defends the operational zone along the front, spanning approximately 250-260 km (from Pokrovske to Mykhailivka).

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 63 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces made slight progress southwest of Pershotravneve and repelled Ukrainian attacks near Synkivka, Ivanivka, and the Serebryansk forest area. They unsuccessfully attempted to advance to the northeast and east of Kupyansk and intensified the use of FPV drones near Synkivka in an attempt to advance towards Kupyansk.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Novoselivske, and the Serebryansk forest, where they seized the tactical initiative, taking advantage of the repositioning of Russian forces.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces made slight progress near Bakhmut, attacked near Klishchiivka, and captured several strongpoints. They repelled Ukrainian attacks near Pivdenne and Shumy. The enemy advanced to the northeast of Klishchiivka, toward Bohdanivka, near the railway in the Andriivka area.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Andriivka and Klishchiivka. They maintained control over critical heights around the village and launched an attack to the northwest of Horlivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked to the northwest of Horlivka, made slight progress near Novokalynove, to the northwest of Krasnohorivka, and in the eastern part of the industrial zone on the southeast outskirts of Avdiivka. They secured positions near the railway adjacent to the Avdiivka coke and chemical plant. The enemy also made unsuccessful attack attempts near Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and Shevchenkove.
• The “Tavria” OSG forces effectively repelled all Russian attacks on the Avdiivka coke and chemical plant, near Stepove, to the east of Novobakhmutivka, to the south of Novokalynove, near Severne, Stepove, Avdiivka, and Pervomaiske. The Ukrainian Defense Forces were unable to regain lost positions in the industrial zone on the southeast outskirts of Avdiivka after a counterattack in that area.
• Berdyansk direction: Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked east of Staromayorske and south of Zolota Nyva.
• Tokmak direction: the “Tavria” OSG forces launched attacks on Robotyne and Verbove with small infantry groups. They advanced half a kilometer towards Novofedorivka and continued the offensive towards Kopani.
• Russian forces conducted a series of counterattacks from the Kopani – Robotyne – Novoprokopivka – Verbove line. They advanced near Verbove and had tactical success near Novoprokopivka, but intense rain interrupted active engagements.
• On the Kherson direction, the units of the “Odesa” OSG maintain positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, although Russian forces displaced Ukrainian units from the forested areas near Krynky and entered the western outskirts of the village.
• Assault groups of the Russian 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked the advanced positions of the “Odesa” OSG units north of Pidstepne, while the 881st Airborne Assault Regiment of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade attacked in the direction of Korsunka – Krynka but were compelled to retreat.
• The adversary’s “Dnieper” Operational grouping consists of 9 brigades, 18 regiments, 9 separate battalions, 5 detachments (or equivalent units). The strength of this grouping is 69,700 personnel, 406 tanks, 948 armored personnel carriers, 573 artillery pieces, MRLS, and 8 OTMC launchers. 
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea naval operational zone, one enemy ship was on combat duty in the Mediterranean Sea.

Change in enemy disposition:

• Near Robotyne, the 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops and the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Army are deployed.
• On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the 108th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division and the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army are engaged.
• The operational deployment of the 104th Airborne Assault Division is ongoing: the 328th Airborne Assault Regiment is in combat east of Kozachi Laheri, while the 337th Airborne Assault Regiment is deployed in the area of Velyki Kopani – Abrykosivka – Tarasivka – Dobrosillia.
• To the east and north of Chelburda, a battalion from the 7th Military Base is deployed

Possible operation situation developments: 

• Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive, capable of disrupting the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
• The “Tavriya” OSG has two viable routes for breaching towards Tokmak: either through Novoprokopivka – Solodka Balka – Chervonohirka or through Myrne – crossing the first position of the primary defense line in the area of Peremozhne – Ternuvate – Stepove, and further, through positions along the Novohorivka – Chystopillia line in the direction of Pokrovske.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG troops will maneuver in the area of Horlivka, posing a threat on the southern flank of the Bakhmut operational direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 27.11.23  

Personnel – almost 325,580 people (+750); 

Tanks – 5,520 (+7); 

Armored combat vehicles – 10,282 (+3); 

Artillery systems – 7,875 (+1);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 907;

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 597 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,299 (+11);

Aircraft – 323 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,905 (+4);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,565 (0);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 90 towns and villages and 30 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Two civilians were reported injured in Donetsk and Kherson Oblasts. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• In the liberated Kherson Oblast, 629 children with their families have been evacuated from 23 designated villages within a month. The Kherson district remains an area with the highest concentration of children still residing in the hazardous zone.
• Occupation administrations in temporarily occupied territories have been ordered to create updated lists of children without guardians for their potential deportation to the Russian Federation. The process is overseen by Maria Lvova-Belova, as reported by the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. The Center stresses that Russia refuses to return the children to Ukraine even if they have relatives in Ukraine, simplifying their adoption by Russian citizens instead.

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