Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 29.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Synkivka and Petropavlivka, where the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 attacks. On the Lyman direction, the Defense Forces successfully repelled 4 attacks near Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted assault operations in the areas of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Pivnichne. Ukrainian troops repelled 16 Russian attacks in this area. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on the achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Russian offensive actions east of Novokalynove, Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke and Pervomaiske were unsuccessful.  The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 27 attacks in this sector. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 17 Russian attacks in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault actions south-west of Staromayorske and Vodyane. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault actions west of Verbove and Robotyne. The Ukrainian troops repelled 9 enemy attacks. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflict losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River and to conduct counter-battery warfare and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces continued offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and have advanced in the areas of Kupyansk and Avdiivka.

General conclusion:

  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces are advancing with small infantry groups, compelled by substantial losses in combat vehicles.
  • Russian forces in the Maryinka area lack sufficient air defense and electronic warfare capabilities, encountering adept counteraction on their positions from the “Tavriya” OSG, compelling them to engage in continuous maneuvering.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 87 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced to the north of Synkivka and to the west of Pershotravneve. They persisted in the offensive in the Orlianka area but made no significant progress. Typically, Russian forces conduct assault operations with infantry groups ranging from 10 to 30 servicemen without the support of armored vehicles. The command of the “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping is regrouping its forces, aiming to enhance command and control efficiency . The significance of this action is underscored by the fact that the regrouping is personally overseen by General Y. Nikitin, the commander of the 1st Tank Army.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled four Russian attacks near Synkivka and Petropavlivka, and over 12 Russian attacks near Stelmakhivka, Yampolivka, Terny, Torske, and Serebryansk Forest in the direction of Lyman. They also launched an attack in the Synkivka area.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces continued assault operations south of Bakhmut, and repelled Russian attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
  • Russian forces advanced into Khromove, the area around Berkhivka and achieved tactical success near Klishchiivka and Andriivka. However, their attempts to capture dominant heights to the northwest of Klishchiivka and near Khromove failed.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks to the northwest of Horlivka near Mayorske, advanced in the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka, and withdrew from the outskirts of Stepove to preserve personnel. They deployed 239 Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division. The 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division unsuccessfully attacked in the area of Heorhiivka. Similarly, the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division made an unsuccessful attack in the area of Novomykhailivka.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks to the northwest of Horlivka in the areas of Severne, east of Novobakhmutivka, northeast of Berdychi, near Avdiivka, Stepove, Opytne, Severne, Pervomaiske, to the south of Tonenke, and near Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction, Units of the 349th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division from the 5th Army attacked from the Pryiutne – Staromayorske line and captured the heights to the north of Staromayorske.
  • Tokmak direction: the “Tavriya” OSG forces achieved success to the west of Robotyne in the direction of Kopani. They also launched an attack to the west of Robotyne and near Novoprokopivka.
  • Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Verbove and Novopokrovka; their attempts to attack near Robotyne and Novoprokopivka were unsuccessful.
  • Kherson direction, the “Odesa” OSG forces launched an attack near Poyma and in the wooded area near Krynky.
  • Russian forces are attempting to displace Ukrainian forces from their positions on the eastern bank of the Kherson Oblast. The battles in Krynky are ongoing, with Russian forces concentrating significant manpower on the Poyma-Krynky line.
  • The enemy uses airfields in Dzhankoy and Strilkove (near the village of Strilkove on the Arabat Spit) to provide immediate fire support to its troops on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. Two Ka-52, two Mi-35, and two Mi-17 helicopters are stationed at these airfields.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 2 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, including 2 cruise missile carriers; and 2 Russian ships were on combat duty in the Mediterranean Sea. The total salvo is 8 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.
  • The following vessels are located at the Russian fleet bases:
    • Novoozerne base: small missile ships of project 1234 “Burya” and “Naberezhnye Chelny”;
    • Sevastopol base: missile frigate of project 11356R “Admiral Makarov”, patrol ship of project 1135 “Ladny”; missile corvettes of project 22800 “Zyklon”, project 12411 “Ivanovets”, project 12417 “Shuya”, project 1239 “Samum”, “Bora” (under repair at the 13th ship repair plant); small anti-submarine ship of project 1124M “Povorino”; medium reconnaissance ships of project  18280 “Ivan Khurs”, project 864 “Priazovye”, project 861 “Ekvator”; large landing ships of project 775 “Novocherkassk”, “Kaliningrad”, “Azov”, “Olenegorsky Gorniak” (under repair), of project 1171 “Nikolay Filchinkov”, naval minesweepers of project 266 “Kovrovets”, “Ivan Golubets”, basic minesweeper of project 12700 “Ivan Antonov”, 2 landing boats of project 21820 “Ataman Platov” and of project 11770, up to 6 anti-sabotage boats and up to 29 support vessels.The remaining forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, including 4 diesel-electric submarines, one of which is under repair, are based in Feodosia, Kerch, Tuapse, Novorossiysk, and Sochi.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • On the Kupyansk direction, the adversary is undergoing a regrouping. Specifically, a part of the forces and assets of the 18th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps is being withdrawn to a base area near Bilovodsk to restore combat readiness. Some units of the 79th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division will remain directly in the combat zone.
  • The deployment of the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army in the areas of Kuzemivka, Kryvoshiivka, and Storozhivka is almost completed. Additionally, the 1432nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops, previously part of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army, is undergoing concentration in the same area.
  • Units of the 137th Parachute Airborne Regiment are operating near Soledar.
  • Units of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the 61st Marine Brigade of the Russian Northern Fleet operate near Krynky.
  • The 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps, which suffered significant losses south of Bakhmut, received up to 40 BMP-1 and BMP-2 during the past week. The 27th Artillery Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps received 19 152mm self-propelled howitzers “Msta-B” and 152mm guns “Hyacinth-B,” as well as 7 122mm multiple rocket launchers “Grad.”
  • Units of the 51st, 119th, and 137th Parachute Airborne Regiments of the 106th Parachute Airborne Division received about 40 82mm and 120mm mortars.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The adversary’s military command is poised to persist in concentrating its efforts on encircling Avdiivka, improving its operational position in the Bakhmut area, and attempting to advance towards Kupyansk in the vicinity of Synkivka. Defensive operations will persist on  other fronts.
  • Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive, capable of disrupting the Defense Forces resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG has two viable routes for breaching towards Tokmak: either through Novoprokopivka – Solodka Balka – Chervonohirka or through Myrne – crossing the first position of the primary defense line in the area of Peremozhne – Ternuvate – Stepove, and further, through positions along the Novohorivka – Chystopillia line in the direction of Pokrovske.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG troops will maneuver in the area of Horlivka, posing a threat on the southern flank of the Bakhmut operational direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.11.23 

Personnel – almost 327,580 people (+1140);

Tanks – 5,538 (+15);

Armored combat vehicles – 10,312 (+27);

Artillery systems – 7,908 (+32);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 910 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 600 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,348 (+46);

Aircraft – 323 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,944 (+39);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,567 (+2);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general:

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 146 towns and villages and 119 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Overnight on November 29, Russian forces launched an attack on Ukraine employing 21 combat drones of the “Shahed” type and three guided aviation missiles Kh-59. All the drones and two missiles were effectively intercepted and destroyed.
  • On November 28, Russian kamikaze drone targeted a humanitarian aid truck delivering aid in Zaporizhzhya Oblast, resulting in killing one person, and injuring two, as reported by the Zaporizhzhia Oblast police.
  • As of the morning of November 29, 511 Ukrainian children have died, and 1,148 have been wounded due to the full-scale aggression of the Russian Federation.
  • As of the morning of November 29, 368 towns and villages in 9 regions of Ukraine were without electricity. The most challenging situation is reported in the Odesa, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Ukrenergo warns of the potential for blackouts as the consumption of electrical energy is rapidly increasing.
  • Grain from southern Ukraine is being illicitly transported to ports in Syria and Iran through the ports of temporarily occupied Crimea. The dry cargo ships “Zafar” and “Matros Koshka” are notably involved in the transportation of stolen agricultural products, as reported by the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
  • 78% of surveyed Ukrainian citizens are willing to vote in favor of joining the European Union, and 77% will support joining NATO if a corresponding referendum is conducted, the nationwide survey on “The Dynamics of Ukrainians’ Attitudes Toward International Alliances,” conducted by the sociological group “Rating” on November 22-23 revealed.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent