Russia’s war on Ukraine. 30.11.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted assault operations near Synkivka, Petropavlivka and Stelmakhivka, where Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 attacks. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 24 attacks in the area of Serebryansk Forest and east of Terny, Yampolivka, Torske. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations near Ivanivske and Andriivka, where Ukrainian troops repelled 4 attacks. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on the achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy with air support persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Stepove, Novokalynove, east of Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, south of Tonenke, Severne and Pervomaiske. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 22 attacks in this sector. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy, with air support, conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka, where the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks south of Prechystivka. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian forces made five unsuccessful attempts to reclaim the lost position in the Robotyne area. The Ukrainian troops also repelled 9 enemy attacks southwest of Verbove. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflict losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River and to conduct counter-battery warfare and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces continued offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast but failed to advance.

General conclusion:

• Adversary’s 25th Combined Arms Army forces are conducting attacks on Terny, Yampolivka, and Dronivka with the objective of eliminating the “Khortytsia” OSG forces’ foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River.
• The situation around Bakhmut has escalated for the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The Russian command is executing a maneuver plan to flank and breach the Ukrainian grouping conducting combat operations south of the city.
• The actions of the 331st Parachute Airborne Regiment of the 98th Parachute Airborne Division pose a significant threat, as it managed to dislodge advanced units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from one platoon-based strongpoint and two positions north of Bohdanivka. Simultaneously, the 217th Parachute Airborne Regiment of the same division displaced Ukrainian units from six positions north of Khromove.
• The adversary’s 98th Parachute Airborne Division is attempting to break through between Bohdanivka and Khromove into the tactical depth of the “Khortytsia” OSG defense towards Chasiv Yar. This will create a northern flank threat to the Ukrainian Defense Forces units operating in the Ivanivske and Klishchiivka areas.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG’s plan in the Soledar area to bypass Bakhmut from the south is showing signs of faltering.
• Russian activity near Avdiivka has significantly increased, with Russian forces employing armored vehicles more extensively compared to early November.
• Russian forces are focused on seizing tactically advantageous positions in the Robotyne area and do not intend to launch major counterattacks.
• Russian troops are routing  their UAVs over riverbeds and highways to avoid Ukrainian mobile fire groups.
• The apparent inability the Russian “Dniepr” Operational Grouping command to create a consolidated command structure for its troops defending on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast undermines the morale and combat capabilities of the enemy’s forces.
• The “Dniepr” Operational Grouping is increasingly composed of military units and subunits of various subordination, frequently defeated in previous battles or newly formed, contributing to command and control chaos.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 101 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops conducted unsuccessful assaults to the northeast of Petropavlivka and near Synkivka and Stelmakhivka, in the area of Serebryansk Forest, Torske, Yampolivka, to the east of Terny. The “Khortytsia” OSG forces counterattacked near Terny and the Zhuravka ravine.
• The enemy advanced to Synkivka near Zahoruykivka and Tymkivka, captured several strongholds to the south and southwest of Lyman Pershyi. They attacked to the south of the Zhuravka ravine, counterattacked in the Chervonopopivka area and repelled Ukrainian attacks near Lyman Pershyi, Synkivka, Yampolivka, and Serebryansk Forest. Units of the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Terny; the 31st and 37th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Combined Arms Army advanced towards Yampolivka and displaced the Ukrainian Defense Forces units from one of the positions; the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division continued attacks southwest of Dibrova in the Serebryansk Forest, towards Dronivka, but failed to advance.
• On the Bakhmut direction, units of the 98th Airborne Division captured Khromove and advanced in the area of Berkhivka Reservoir. The enemy unsuccessfully attacked near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. Battles are ongoing to the northwest and southwest of Bakhmut. The 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps attacked Ivanivske and seized one stronghold. The 4th and 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades attacked in the directions of Bakhmut – Klishchiivka and Zaitseve – Klishchiivka, displacing the Ukrainian Defense Forces units from five positions.
• The Russian 4^th and 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, and the 83rd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade persistently, albeit unsuccessfully, attempt to push the forward units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from Kurdyumivka northwards towards Andriivka. They are clearly acting in coordination with units of the 98th Airborne Division, which is advancing north of Bakhmut in the areas of Berkhivka and Yahidne.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced 300-500 meters towards Novokalynove and near Stepove, capturing several Ukrainian positions near Severne. They are attempting to seize the Avdiivka coking plant, consolidating their positions in the industrial zone to the southeast of Avdiivka. The situation is highly complex in this area, with Ukrainian UAVs and constant mortar fire making it difficult for Russian forces to maneuver through the territory. The enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, to the east of Novobakhmutivka, and to the south of Tonenke, in the areas of Krasnohorivka and Maryinka, near Novomykhailivka and Vodyane.
• Berdyansk direction, The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled several Russian assaults to the south of Prechystivka and to the southwest of Staromayorske.
• Tokmak direction: the “Tavriya” OSG forces continued their offensive operations on the Melitopol direction, launching attacks to the west of Robotyne, near Novoprokopivka, and to the northwest of Verbove. They successfully repelled over 9 Russian assaults near Robotyne and to the west of Verbove.
• Units of the Russian 247th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division counterattacked near Verbove. Russian forces captured several Ukrainian positions near Robotyne, and counterattacked along the Kopani – Robotyne – Novoprokopivka – Verbove line. Units of the 70th, 291st Motorized Rifle Regiments, and the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Army advanced up to 800 meters on several sectors near Kopani and Robotyne.
• Kherson direction, the “Odesa” OSG forces advanced to the southwest of Krynky and established positions in the adjacent wooded area. Battles continue in the vicinity of Krynky, with Russian aviation and artillery delivering powerful strikes in the area. Ukrainian forces persist in deploying new assault groups to the left bank, with their grouping near Krynky involving approximately 300 to 400 Ukrainian soldiers.
• Units of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, operating near Krynky, refrain from launching assaults on Ukrainian positions due to a lack of weapons, poor artillery coordination, absence of tactical reconnaissance, inadequate communication, and a lack of information regarding the location of Russian minefields.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 3 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, including 3 cruise missile carriers; and 2 Russian ships were on combat duty in the Mediterranean Sea. The total salvo is 16 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• In December, the 19th Tank Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Combined Arms Army is expected to receive six T-90M tanks. Currently, the regiment has 46 tanks (T-72 of various modifications), 9 armored combat vehicles, 24 guns, and 4 multiple rocket launchers, which in terms of combat potential corresponds to a BTG.
• The 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps has completed restoring its readiness and has 24 tanks, 98 armored combat vehicles, 34 guns, 30 mortars, and 17 multiple rocket launchers, constituting 75-85% of its combat potential.
• The enemy is forming 1 tank battalion each within the composition of the 19th and 20th Motorized Rifle Divisions, drawing from the reserves of the 1061st Logistical Support Center (Rostov-on-Don) and the 904th Center for Mobilization Deployment Support (Kamensk-Shakhtinsky). The readiness deadline is April 1, 2024. This state of affairs indicates the enemy’s limited capabilities to form large military units.
• The 28th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th Combined Arms Army operates in Pishchanivka.
• Units of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the 177th Separate Marines Regiment of the Russian Caspian Fleet, deployed to the Kherson direction, suffered significant losses during battles in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the summer of 2023.
• Likely, units of the 80th Separate Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Russian Northern Fleet operate on the left bank of Kherson Oblast.
• In early October, part of the forces of the 41st Combined Arms Army was redeployed from the Kupyansk direction to Kherson Oblast.
• Most units of the 7th Airborne Assault Division defend in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, the 171st Separate Airborne Assault Battalion, the 97th Airborne Assault Regiment, and the 104th Separate Tank Battalion of the 7th Airborne Assault Division operate on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast.
• Units of the 49th Combined Arms Army have been operating on the Kherson direction since Ukraine liberated Kherson in November 2022, although the Russian command has redeployed at least one brigade to Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• The newly formed 70th Motorized Rifle Division and the 22nd Army Corps of the 18th Combined Arms Army are operating on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast

Escalation indicators:

• The adversary has resumed offensive actions on the Lyman direction and intensified efforts in the vicinity of Bakhmut.

Possible operation situation developments:

• In the near future, it is anticipated that the adversary will launch an offensive in the direction of Torske and Zarichne, with the objective of cutting off the Torske – Zarichne – Yampolivka road.
• The enemy will engage the 19th Tank Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Combined Arms Army in the directions of Yampolivka, Terny, or Torske. To build on gains, the 20th Combined Arms Army forces will attempt to attack towards Makiyivka and Nevske with the goal of squeezing the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River from north to south.
• The enemy’s military command will continue to focus on encircling Avdiivka, improving its operational position in the Bakhmut area, and attempting to advance towards Kupyansk in the vicinity of Synkivka. Defensive operations will be sustained on the other fronts.
• Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive, capable of disrupting the Defense Forces resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.11.23 

Personnel – almost 328,760  people (+1180);

Tanks – 5,551 (+13);

Armored combat vehicles – 10,340 (+28);

Artillery systems – 7,909 (+1);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 910 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 600 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,361 (+13);

Aircraft – 323 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,954 (+10);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,567 (0);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 112 towns and villages and 70 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the night of November 30, Russia attacked Ukraine with 20 assault “Shakhed” UAVs and 8 S-300 missiles. The Ukrainian air defense forces successfully destroyed 14 drones.
• During the night of November 30, Russian occupiers launched six missiles at Pokrovske, Novohrodivka, and Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast. The attacks resulted in at least 10 injuries, one confirmed fatality, and four individuals are still being searched for under the debris.
• During the night of November 30, Russian military attacked Daryivka in Kherson Oblast, causing damage to about ten residential houses, a kindergarten, and a hospital. The attack resulted in four people being injured.
• On the night of November 29, the IAEA experts in Ukraine recorded explosions near two nuclear power plants – the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant.
• The 1-year-old Marharyta Prokopenko, who was taken to Russia during the Russian occupation of Kherson, has a 6-year-old sister and a 3-year-old brother. The whereabouts of the boy are currently unknown, according to the ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets. He said that Marharyta was adopted by 70-year-old politician and leader of the “Just Russia” party, Sergei Mironov, and his 55-year-old wife Inna Varlamova. The child’s name and citizenship have been changed, and she is now Marina Mironova.
• Russian occupation authorities have brought in over 100,000 migrants from Central Asia to the occupied territories of Ukraine with the aim of replacing the local population. Currently, most of the migrants are employed in construction, but there are plans to mobilize them in exchange for citizenship in the future, as reported by the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
• In the past day, on the Tavriya direction, 4 occupiers surrendered to the Ukrainian forces, bringing the total to over 60 invaders who have done so in the last 20 days, according to Alexander Tarnavsky, the commander of the “Tavriya” OSG.

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