Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 01.12.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy, with air support, conducted assault operations near Synkivka, northeast of Petropavlivka, and Stelmakhivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 attacks. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 6 enemy attacks. In the areas of Serebryansk forestry and Torske, the Defense Forces repelled 6 attacks. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted assault operations near Bohdanivka, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka, where Ukrainian forces repelled 24 attacks. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses to the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy, with air support, persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces steadfastly hold their defense, inflicting significant losses on the Russian troops. Enemy offensive actions near Stepove, Novokalynove, Avdiivka, Tonenke, Severne, and Pervomaiske were unsuccessful, with the Defense Forces repelling 20 attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy, with air support, conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. Ukrainian troops repelled 10 attacks in this sector. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy did not conduct offensive (assault) actions. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy made 11 unsuccessful attempts to regain the lost position near Robotyne. Ukrainian forces repelled 4 attacks west of Verbove. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro, conduct counter-battery warfare, and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas. 

Russian forces continued offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, they failed to advance.  

General conclusion:

  • The adversary has managed to halt the offensive actions of the “Khortytsia” OSG south of Bakhmut. Currently they persistently attacking its flank and rear from the northern direction, albeit without success. The combat engagements primarily involve infantry units without the deployment of armored vehicle.
  • Leveraging its advantage in manpower, the adversary imposes a tactic of infantry assaults on the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The infantry assaults backed by artillery and mortar fire, while refraining from the deployment of armored vehicles.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 82 combat engagements on various fronts. 
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG repelled 7 Russian attacks near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stelmakhivka, Yampolivka, Torske, and in the area of Serebryansk forestry.
  • Russian forces displaced Ukrainian forces from positions near Lyman Pershyi and reached the outskirts of Synkivka. They are attempting to break through the Ukrainian defense along the line of Tymkivka – Ivanivka – Kyslivka. They repelled Ukrainian attacks near Synkivka and near Yampolivka. 
  • The 254th Motorized Rifle Regiment (of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division, the 20th Army) dislodged Ukrainian units from six positions and one observation post to the east of Terny; south and southwest of Dibrova, units of the 31st and 37th Motorized Rifle Regiments (of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division, the 25th Army), supported by the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment (of the 90th Tank Division), displaced forward Ukrainian units from 5 positions and 1 observation post. The commander of the enemy’s 144th Motorized Rifle Division is deploying the assault “Storm-V” units (from the composition of the 488th and 283rd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the division) to the area west of Zhytlivka for subsequent operations in the direction of Terny.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces have advanced to the south of Berkhiv Reservoir and near Bohdanivka. They seized control of a section of the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar highway near Khromove. The 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade seized Khromove and advanced into the forested areas north and northwest of the village. The 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division displaced units of the “Khortytsia” OSG from 2 positions north of Bohdanivka; the 217th Airborne Regiment displaced Ukrainian forces from 3 positions northeast of Khromove, and the 83rd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade forced them out from 1 position north of Kurdyumivka.
  • The forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG repelled Russian attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka. They pushed units of the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division from 3 positions north of Khromove and the 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from 3 positions east of Klishchiivka.
  • In the area of Bakhmut, intense close-quarters infantry battles continue northwest and south of the city.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced to the west of the railway tracks near Stepove and in the vicinity of Novokalynove, to the north of the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka. They carried out unsuccessful ground strikes near Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, and Maryinka. Battles are ongoing near the Avdiivka coking plant and the adjacent slag heap, where the enemy is conducting aerial strikes with planning bombs from Su-35 aircraft.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Stepove, Novokalynove, Avdiivka, Severne, Pervomaiske, to the east of Novobakhmutivka, and Tonenke.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army captured Ukrainian positions southwest of Staromayorske. The enemy seized several Ukrainian positions on the Pryiutne – Staromayorske line.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks south of Prechystivka.
  • Tokmak direction: The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG continue offensive operations on the Melitopol direction. They repelled at least 14 Russian attacks near Robotyne and to the northwest and west of Verbove. 
  • Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks to the north of Verbove.
  • Kherson direction: The forces of the “Odesa” OSG maintain positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River; battles continue near Krynky. Russian aviation and artillery continue to deliver powerful strikes in this area.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 9 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, including 2 cruise missile carriers; 1 Russian ship was on combat duty in  the Sea of Azov and 2 ships – in the Mediterranean Sea. The total salvo was 8 “Kalibr” cruise missiles. 

Change in enemy disposition:

  • The adversary continues to supply the units and formations of the 25th Combined Arms Army on the Lyman direction with weapons and military equipment: the 11th Separate Tank Brigade received 7 T-90M tanks and no less than 4 T-80BV tanks.
  • The 9th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps of the Russian Baltic Fleet is deployed as part of the “Zapad” Operational grouping on the Kupyansk direction. However, one regiment from the division is deployed north of Bakhmut and, in conjunction with the 98th Airborne Division, is attempting to break through between Bohdanivka and Khromove in the direction of Chasiv Yar.
  • Following a month of combat in the Bakhmut region, the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps currently has 18 tanks, 86 armored combat vehicles, 11 artillery pieces, and 17 multiple rocket launchers.

Escalation indicators: 

  • A notable escalation is observed in the concentration of Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • In the near future, it is anticipated that the adversary will launch an offensive in the direction of Torske and Zarichne, with the objective of cutting off the Torske – Zarichne – Yampolivka road.
  • The enemy’s military command will continue to focus on encircling Avdiivka, improving its operational position in the Bakhmut area, and attempting to advance towards Kupyansk in the vicinity of Synkivka. Defensive operations will be sustained on the other fronts.
  • Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive, capable of disrupting the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.12.23  

Personnel – almost 330,040 people (+1,280); 

Tanks – 5,564 (+13); 

Armored combat vehicles – 10,372 (+32); 

Artillery systems – 7,931 (+22);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 912 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 602 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,399 (+38);

Aircraft – 323 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,976 (+22);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,567 (0);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 131 towns and villages and 62 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Three people were reported killed and 8 injured in Kherson Oblast, 1 person was reported injured in Kharkiv Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the night of December 1, the Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 25 Shahed-type combat drones and two Kh-59 guided aviation missiles. Eighteen drones and one missile were successfully destroyed. The Russian occupiers attacked with Shahed drones from two directions: Cape Chauda (occupied Crimea) and Prymorsko-Akhtarsk (Russian Federation). The missiles were launched from the airspace of the occupied Kherson Oblast.
  • In the 11 months of 2023, Russian forces have attacked towns and cities across 24 regions in Ukraine 59,000 times. This affected 11,000 civilians, leading to 2,000 casualties. The most targeted regions include Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv, as reported by Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko.
  • Serhiy Arefyev, a Ukrainian civilian abducted by Russian forces during the occupation of Kherson, has been sentenced to 11.6 years in a strict-regime colony by the occupation Kherson Oblast court operating in Crimea. The charges are related to “espionage.” Arefyev worked as a telecom engineer.
  • Approximately 75% of Ukrainians are gearing up for potential energy shortages in the winter. According to survey results by the sociological group “Rating,” residents of Kyiv and individuals in the younger and middle age brackets, typically more affluent, are particularly proactive in preparing for potential energy supply issues.
  • Due to Russian aggression in Ukraine, 863 cultural heritage sites have been destroyed or damaged, according to the press service of the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy of Ukraine.

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