Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 02.12.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted assault operations in the areas of Synkivka and Stelmakhivka, where the Defense Forces repelled 13 attacks. On the Lyman direction, the enemy conducted assault operations in the Serebryansk forestry area, where the Defense Forces repelled 8 attacks. On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy conducted assault operations in the areas of Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 21 attacks in this sector. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the enemy persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces steadfastly hold their defense, inflicting losses on the occupiers. The enemy’s offensive actions south of Novokalynove, Stepove, Avdiivka, Severne, and Pervomaiske were unsuccessful, with the Defense Forces repelling 21 attacks. On the Maryinka direction, the enemy, with aviation support, conducted unsuccessful assault operations in the area of Novomykhailivka. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive (assault) actions. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted offensive (assault) actions 8 times to restore the lost position in the Robotyne area and west of Verbove. The Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 4 more attacks. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue the offensive operation on the Melitopol direction, inflicting losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment and exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro, conduct counter-battery warfare, and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas. 

Russian forces continued offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and advanced in some sectors.  

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces have intensified operations across the entire eastern front.
  • The adversary has slightly reduced the intensity of shelling on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. Russian forces are regrouping on the Lyman direction.
  • The enemy is attempting to advance from the north and south towards Orlivka, Lastochkine, Severne, Tonenke and compel the “Tavriya” OSG forces to withdraw from the town under the threat of encirclement.
  • The replacement of the adversary’s marine units with the units of the Airborne Forces in the vicinity of Krynky is aimed at improving control over the forces of the Russian “Dniepr” operational grouping, which are currently attempting to displace Ukrainian units from Krynky and the northern part of the wooded terrain south of the village.
  • Commander Teplynsky of the “Dniepr” operational grouping purposefully consolidates marine and airborne forces in proximity to the stronghold of the “Odesa” OSG on the left bank. He deems these forces as the most combat-ready within his grouping, expressing greater confidence in their moral, psychological, and combat attributes when compared to other units under his command.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 84 combat engagements on various fronts. 
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced southeast of Vilshana, attacked near Lyman Pershyi, and in the Serebryansk forestry area. They repelled attacks by the Defense Forces near Yampolivka. Intense battles continue near Synkivka.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled Russian assaults near Synkivka, northeast of Petropavlivka, near Stelmakhivka, Torske, and Serebryansk forestry.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces are advancing southwest of Bakhmut in the areas of Klishchiivka and Andriivka, progressing towards Bohdanivka from Khromove and Berkhivka. They have entrenched themselves on the northern and southeast outskirts of Bohdanivka, engaging in battles along the T0506 highway north of Khromove and the T0504 highway south of Khromove. They unsuccessfully attacked near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Avdiivka, where the enemy is attempting to encircle the Avdiivka defensive area. Units of the Russian 132nd and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 1st Army Corps attacked in the directions of Krasnohorivka – Novokalynove and Krasnohorivka – Stepove. Units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army attacked in the directions of Vesele – Pishchanyi Quarry and Height 204.6 – Avdiivka Coking Plant. Units of the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army, the 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps, supported by units of the 87th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps, attacked in the directions of Kashtanove – Avdiivka, Mineralne – Avdiivka, and Spartak – Avdiivka. Units of the enemy’s 1st and 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades attacked in the directions of Vodyane – Avdiivka and Vodyane – Tonenke. Units of the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army attacked in the directions of Pisky – Pervomaiske and Vodyane – Netaylove. The adversary did not achieve success on any of the fronts.
  • Units of the “Tavriya” OSG, through sudden counterattacks, compelled the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army to abandon two positions and withdraw northeast from Stepove. They also displaced the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps from positions south of Novokalynove. The 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps retreated from two forward positions.
  • Over the last two days, the forward units of the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, part of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division within the 8th Army, and the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps achieved partial success in the Maryinka area. They advanced along the Kashtanova and Ivan Franko streets on both sides of the Osykova River by approximately 200-300 meters.
  • The enemy military command has deployed the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army toward Oleksandrivka – Novomykhailivka.
  • The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps of the 5th Army continues its unsuccessful attempts to launch attacks in the directions of Solodke – Novomykhailivka and Slavne – Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction: Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaging in reciprocal artillery fire, awaiting the freezing of mud to resume attacks.
  • Tokmak direction: Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to storm the “Tavriya” OSG positions near Robotyne and  west of Verbove. The enemy seeks to increase pressure on Ukrainian positions on the western outskirts of Robotyne, conducting intensive counterattacks along the entire Kopani-Robotyne-Novoprokopivka-Verbove line. They have captured positions in forested areas near Verbove. Weather conditions and the intense impact of Ukrainian artillery and strike UAVs have severely complicated the enemy’s logistics north of Verbove.
  • Kherson direction: Another enemy attempt with the forces of a battalion of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade and units of the 328th Airborne Assault Regiment from the 104th Motorized Rifle Division to displace the advanced units of the “Odesa” OSG from the bridgehead in the area of Krynky, resulted in failure.
  • The disorder in the enemy’s combat formations on this front is causing frequent incidents almost daily, including self-triggered detonations of their own mine-explosive barriers, instances of “friendly fire” casualties, and uncoordinated attacks by different units.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 4 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea; 1 Russian ship was on combat duty in the Sea of Azov and 2 ships – in the Mediterranean Sea. 

Change in enemy disposition:

  • The Russian military command has redeployed units of the 98th and 106th Airborne Divisions from the Lyman direction to positions between Khromove and Bohdanivka to reinforce their forces in this area.
  • In the Avdiivka area, the enemy command has at its disposal the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army, the 239th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, the 9th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps of the Russian Baltic Fleet, the 10th Tank Regiment of the 1st Army Corps, and up to 6 motorized infantry/tank formations of the “regiment – battalion” level of the Russian Territorial Troops.

Escalation indicators: 

  • In the area of the Antonivskyi railway bridge, the adversary dropped at least three K-51 aerosol grenades (tear gas) from a UAV on the positions of Ukrainian units on the bridgehead.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • In the near future, it is anticipated that the adversary will launch an offensive in the direction of Torske and Zarichne, with the objective of cutting off the Torske – Zarichne – Yampolivka road.
  • The enemy’s military command will continue to focus on encircling Avdiivka, improving its operational position in the Bakhmut area, and attempting to advance towards Kupyansk in the vicinity of Synkivka. Defensive operations will be sustained on the other fronts.
  • Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive, capable of disrupting the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
  • In the near future, the command of the adversary’s “Dniepr” operational grouping plans to concentrate the 328th and 337th Airborne Assault Regiments of the 104th Airborne Assault Division near Krynky, replacing the units of the 177th Separate Marine Regiment of the Russian Caspian Fleet. As part of this rotation, one marine battalion from the 177th Separate Marine Regiment has already been replaced by an assault battalion of the 337th Airborne Assault Regiment.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.12.23  

Personnel – almost 331,110 people (+1,070); 

Tanks – 5,571 (+7); 

Armored combat vehicles – 10,385 (+13); 

Artillery systems – 7,941 (+10);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 913 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 602 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,410 (+11);

Aircraft – 323 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 5,994 (+18);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,568 (+1);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 99 towns and villages and 25 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. One person was reported killed and two injured in Donetsk Oblast, and one killed and one injured were reported in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • The Russian forces launched an attack on Odesa Oblast at night, deploying 11 Shahed UAVs from Cape Chauda (Crimea) and a guided aviation missile from the airspace of the temporarily occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrainian air defense successfully neutralized ten Shahed-136/131 UAVs, while the eleventh UAV struck an infrastructure object.
  • During the night of December 2, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant experienced its eighth blackout, marking the first occurrence since May 22, 2023. Rafael Grossi, the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), emphasized that this incident serves as another reminder of the precarious situation regarding nuclear safety and security at the plant, influenced by events far beyond the immediate location. 
  • Employees of the Kherson Art Museum, named after Oleksandr Shovkunenko, have identified four additional paintings that were unlawfully taken to Crimea by Russian forces during the occupation of the city.

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