Russia’s war on Ukraine. 04.12.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 Russian attacks in the area of Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 enemy attacks in the area of Serebryansk Forest. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 16 enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on the achieved positions

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in holding back the enemy, which is making repeated attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 21 enemy attacks in areas east of Novokalynove and Novobakhmutivka, as well as in the areas of Stepove, Avdiivka, Severne, and Pervomaiske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to impede the enemy in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, where the Ukrainian troops repelled 8 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled one Russian attack in the area of Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Ukrainian troops repelled 3 enemy attacks in the area of Novopokrivka while Russian occupiers attempted to reclaim the lost position in the area south of Robotyne. On the Melitopol direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue active operations, inflicting losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River and to conduct counter-battery warfare and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces continued offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, west of Donetsk, on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They advanced in the Avdiivka area.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces conduct reconnaissance and regrouping to resume assault operations near the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka.
• In the third wave of the Avdiivka assault, Russian troops opened two additional attack directions on the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka and from Spartak (4 km south of Avdiivka) to divert Ukrainian forces.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 68 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG troops repelled Russian attacks to the northeast of Petropavlivka, near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Stelmakhivka, and Serebryansk Forest, and advanced west of Dibrova.
• Russian forces advanced toward Ivanivka, near Torske, and in the area of Serebryansk Forest. They repelled Ukrainian attacks near Synkivka, Yampolivka, and Torske, continuing their assault near Kyslivka but have not achieved significant progress in recent months. The 13th detachment of the BARS “Russian Legion” attacked to the south of Dibrova.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG troops continued their assault to the south of Bakhmut, attacking near Klishchiivka.
• Russian forces advanced to the south of Berkhivka Reservoir, towards Ivanivske, east of Klishchiivka, and near Andriivka. They unsuccessfully attacked near Bohdanivka, from Dubovo-Vasylivka towards Hryhorivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced to the west of the railway north of Stepove by 300 meters, to the southwest of Pervomaiske, to the south of Novokalynove, to the west of Krasnohorivka, on the northern flank of Avdiivka, near Pervomaiske and Severne. They unsuccessfully attacked to the east of Novobakhmutivka, to the south of Tonenke, near Avdiivka, from the side of Kamyanka near the industrial zone southwest of Avdiivka, near Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and southeast of Vuhledar.
• Russian forces are displacing the “Tavriya” OSG troops from the outskirts of Maryinka, almost taking control of the village, but still failed to overcome the prepared Ukrainian defense in the area.
• Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Maryinka.
• Berdyansk direction, The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled a Russian assault near Staromayorske.
• Tokmak direction: the “Tavriya” OSG forces continued their offensive actions on the Melitopol direction. Combat engagements continue  north of Verbove.
• Russian forces repelled 14 Ukrainian attacks to the south of Robotyne, north of Verbove, and near Novoprokopivka. They maintained positions near Robotyne and making advances in this area.
• Kherson direction: taking advantage of the severe weather conditions, the enemy command carried out some regrouping of its forces and assets on designated fronts along the Dnipro direction.
• Based on its observed movements, the command of the Russian “Dniepr” Operational Grouping is focusing its main efforts against the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ bridgehead in the area of Krynky.
• Specifically, it has deployed its assault tactical group, operating on this front, in a two-tiered combat formation as follows:
• In the first echelon
  • Up to 2 motorized rifle battalions from the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division
  • Up to 2 motorized rifle battalions from the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 40th Army Corps
  • Marines battalion from the 61st Separate Marines Brigade
  • Airborne assault battalion from the 810th Separate Marines Brigade
• In the second echelon
  • The 328th Air Assault Regiment from the 104th Air Assault Division, up to 2 air assault battalions
  • The 337th Air Assault Regiment from the 104th Air Assault Division – at least 1 air assault battalion.
• Artillery support for the enemy tactical group operating towards Krynky, in addition to the regular artillery units of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade and 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, is provided by the following units:
  • the 277th Artillery Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army
  • the 1180th Artillery Regiment of the 104th Air Assault Division
  • Combined Artillery Tactical Group of the 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division
• Furthermore, it is noteworthy that the command of the Russian “Dniepr” Operational Grouping, has seemingly ALREADY engaged the main forces of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division in the first line – the 24th, 26th, and 28th Motorized Rifle Regiments (excluding one Motorized Rifle Battalion) and at least one tank battalion from the 17th Tank Regiment of this division. A similar trend is observed with the 104th Air Assault Division, as units and detachments are being relocated to reinforce the “Dniepr” Operational Grouping from the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea.
• As of the morning of December 2, 2023, the units of its 24th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division have been deployed in the western part of Oleshky (as the enemy’s command perceives a potential threat in the actions of the advanced units of the Ukrainian forces from the Konka and Chaika estuaries).
• The enemy engaged the units of its 28th Motorized Rifle Regiment north of Pidstepne, towards the solar power station, intending to unblock the riverside Oleshky – Nova Kakhovka road in this section.
• The Russian 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment appears to be providing ongoing support to the marines in their attempts to advance towards Krynky.
• The decision of the Russian “Dniepr” OG command regarding the withdrawal of the 177th Separate Marines Regiment units, which sustained substantial losses in the Krynky battles, and the 171st Separate Air Assault Battalion of the 7th Air Assault Division, is yet to be determined.
• According to available information, these units have not been assigned to either the tactical or operational reserve. It is probable that the 177th Separate Marines Regiment has indeed been repositioned to the rear area; there is indication the relocation of the 3rd Marines Battalion of this regiment to the Prymorske area, with its positions assumed by units of the 337th Air Assault Regiment of the 104th Air Assault Division. The 171st Separate Airborne Assault Battalion, based on available information, has been moved to the eastern outskirts of Oleshky.
• Hence, the command of the enemy’s “Dniepr” Operational Grouping has positioned and deployed the following forces and assets on the most crucial (with the most threat for them) section of the main defense line on the Dnipro operational direction (Kherson operational region):
  • the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Combined Arms Army, almost in full  [combat capability]- (24th, 26th, and 28th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the division and the 1st Tank Battalion from the 17th Tank Regiment) of the 18th Combined Arms Army
  • the 104th Air Assault Division, operating with the forces of the 328th and 337th Air Assault Regiment
  • the 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade of the 22nd Army Corps of the 18th Combined Arms Army, almost in full [combat capability]
  • the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from the 40th Army Corps, at least 2 Motorized Rifle Battalions
  • the 404th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops
  • the 171st Separate Air Assault Battalion of the 7th Air Assault Division
  • the 810th Separate Marines Brigade from the Russian Black Sea Fleet, at least 2 battalions.
  • the 61st Separate Marines Brigade from the Russian Northern Fleet, up to a battalion.
• There are also two “BARS” battalions (BARS-Kherson, recruited from local collaborators, and a BARS-4), along with a couple of platoons of “Storm-Z” type, manned with individuals from prisons in Russia.
• Considering the aforementioned details, it is apparent that, concerning the material and technical support for its forces operating on the Dnipro direction, the adversary places critical importance on two communication routes—those passing through Radensk and Nova Mayachka on either side of the Oleshky Sands National Park.
• The adversary has made five attempts to attack and conduct assault operations over the past three days on the Dnipro direction, mainly in the area of Krynky, involving units from the 810th Separate Marines Brigade and the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.
• Attempts by small Russian infantry groups (presumably from its 28th Motorized Rifle Regiment) to displace Ukrainian forward units from the riverside road and advance towards Poyma and the railway bridge over the Konka River were also recorded.
• Additionally, over the past three days, the following enemy’s activities have been observed:
  • Personnel rotation of the enemy forward units occupying positions on the islands of Velykyi Potiomkin, Bilohrudyi, Nestryha, Kozachyy, Zabych, as well as the movement of certain  enemy material and equipment to these locations
  • Continued engineering and fortification works to build fortified positions (line of platoon and company strongholds) along the Hladkivka – Mali Kopani – Pody – Kostogryzove line (along the Tavriyske – Radensk road).
• As of the morning of December 2, 2023, the tactical and operational reserve of the “Dniepr” Operational Grouping included the following forces:
  • the 214th Tank Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops
  • the 1183rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops – 2 battalions
  • the 1044th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops, 104th Air Assault Division – 1 battalion
  • the 134th Separate Tank Battalion of the 104th Air Assault Division
  • the 810th Separate Marines Brigade – 1 Marines Battalion
  • the 17th Tank Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division – up to 2 tank battalions, 1 Motorized Rifle Battalion
  • the 1691st, 1854th, 1822nd, and 1616th Separate Motorized Rifle Battalions of the Russian Territorial Troops.
• In this regard, at least two main features [of the enemy action on this front] can be highlighted:
  • the majority of the “Dniepr” Operational Grouping’s tank forces are held in reserve under the command of General Teplinsky
  • the reserve component of the “Dniepr” Operational Grouping mainly consists of formations from the Russian Territorial Troops, ( i.e. predominantly manned with mobilized personnel). Most of the combat ready or professional units have been already  actively deployed, either on the frontlines or in close proximity to them.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, The enemy naval group currently on duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 5 ships;
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• A video, published on December 3, supposedly shows elements of the 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Army Corps of the so called “Luhansk People’s Republic” or “LNR”), operating near Berestove (30 km south of Kreminna).
• 36th Combined Arms Army are engaged in combat actions in Urozhaine.

Possible operation situation developments:

• In the near future, it is anticipated that the adversary will launch an offensive in the direction of Torske and Zarichne, with the objective of cutting off the Torske – Zarichne – Yampolivka road.
• The enemy’s military command will continue to focus on encircling Avdiivka, improving its operational position in the Bakhmut area, and attempting to advance towards Kupyansk in the vicinity of Synkivka. Defensive operations will be sustained on the other fronts.
• Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive, capable of disrupting the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.
• In the near future, the command of the adversary’s “Dniepr” operational grouping plans to concentrate the 328th and 337th Airborne Assault Regiments of the 104th Airborne Assault Division near Krynky, replacing the units of the 177th Separate Marine Regiment of the Russian Caspian Fleet. As part of this rotation, one marine battalion from the 177th Separate Marine Regiment has already been replaced by an assault battalion of the 337th Airborne Assault Regiment.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.12.23 

Personnel – almost 332,810 people (+770);

Tanks 5,580 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 10,401 (+5);

Artillery systems – 7,961 (+12);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 913 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 602 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,451 (+19);

Aircraft – 323 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,017 (+12);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,569 (0);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 127 towns and villages and 30 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the morning of December 4, the Ukrainian Air Force reported the interception of 18 out of 23 “Shahed” UAVs and the missile launched by the Russian forces launched overnight. The remaining UAVs impacted civilian objects in the Kherson and Beryslav districts of Kherson Oblast and in Mykolaiv Oblast. An air raid alert was activated as far west as Zakarpattia Oblast during the night.
• The body of an 8-year-old girl has been retrieved from the rubble of a residential building in the city of Novohrodivka in Donetsk Oblast, hit by a Russian rocket overnight on November 30. The search for her parents is ongoing  The local authorities have declared a three-day mourning period in the community.
• Oleksandr Prokudin, the Chairman of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration, announced the successful return of a family with two children from the occupied territory to the Ukrainian-controlled area of Kherson Oblast. He emphasized that, since the start of 2023, a total of 158 children from Kherson Oblast have been successfully repatriated.
• In the areas of Luhansk Oblast currently under Russian occupation, there is a lack of vaccines for newborns, according to the Luhansk Oblast Military Administration. Specifically, there are delays in obtaining the tuberculosis vaccine, which can take several months. Additionally, the vaccine for whooping cough, diphtheria, and tetanus is completely unavailable in many cities within the so-called “LNR” territory.
• Since August 8, over 7 million tons of cargo have been shipped from the ports of Pivdenny, Odesa, and Chornomorsk, with nearly 5 million tons comprising products from Ukrainian farmers. First Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov stated that within this period,200 vessels departed the ports and 226 vessels entered through the established Ukrainian corridor, monitored by the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

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