Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 06.12.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 8 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka and Novoselivske. On the Lyman direction, the Defense Forces thwarted 26 enemy attacks in the areas of Serebryansk Forest, Bilohorivka, Terny, Spirne, Vesele, and Rozdolivka. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 10 enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue offensive actions south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment while consolidating positions at achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian troops continue to restrain the enemy, which persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting significant losses on the enemy. The Defense Forces successfully repelled 25 enemy attacks in the areas east of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, northeast of Berdychi, Avdiivka, Severne, and Pervomaiske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to restrain the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Pobeda, and Novomykhailivka, successfully repelling 18 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled an enemy attack in the area south of Zolota Nyva. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Defense Forces repelled all attacks of the enemy, which attempted to regain lost positions in areas west of Verbove. On the Melitopol direction, the Defense Forces continue active operations, inflicting losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment and exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro, conduct counter-battery warfare, and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces continued offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, west of Donetsk, on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They advanced in the Avdiyivka area.  

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces on the Kupyansk direction have reduced the density of artillery fire compared to the end of the summer of 2023, but they increased frequency in the deployment of tanks compared to October 2023.
  • Russian troops are focused on retaking previously lost positions near Bakhmut and are employing “Storm-Z” assault detachments for a strong frontal assault. More professional units, primarily the Airborne Forces and Chechen formations, are employed to search for gaps and weaknesses in the Ukrainian defense.
  • Russian forces have resumed air strikes using Su-25 attack aircraft and Ka-52 helicopters in the Avdiivka area.
  • Cases of desertion among Russian military personnel have increased by 89% during the period from summer to fall 2023.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 97 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Novoselivske, Terny, Serebryansk Forest, Bilohorivka, Spirne, and Vesele. 
  • Russian forces captured the northern outskirts of Synkivka, advanced to 1 km near Torske and achieved success near Yampolivka. They attacked south and southwest of Lyman Pershyi. Battles are ongoing near Serebryanka and Hryhorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces continued assault actions south of Bakhmut and counterattacked near Bohdanivka. They captured two positions of the Russian 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division and repelled at least 11 assaults near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
  • Russian forces repelled four Ukrainian assaults in the areas of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Toretsk.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced along the railway section north of the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, in the industrial zone, south of the Avdiivka waste heap, near Novokalynove, Stepove, Severne, and Pervomaiske, and resumed their  assault near Nevelske. 
  • Positional battles are ongoing near Krasnohorivka.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled at least 23 Russian attacks east of Novobakhmutivka, northeast of Berdychi, near Stepove, Avdiivka, Severne, and Pervomaiske. At least 13 Russian attacks were repelled near Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. They advanced to the east of the railway section north of the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, counterattacked near Stepove, north of the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, forcing Russian forces to retreat from two forward positions. They are pressing on the Russian defense from Novokalynove direction.
  • Berdyansk direction: Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked south of Zolota Nyva and southwest of Staromayorske.
  • Tokmak direction: The “Tavriya” OSG forces unsuccessfully attacked in the area of Balka Uspenivka, west of Robotyne, near Novoprokopivka, and northwest of Verbove. 
  • Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked south and west of Robotyne.
  • Kherson direction: The “Odesa” OSG forces continued to hold positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and attacked the forested area near Krynky. 
  • The enemy’s 104th Air Assault Division has consolidated on the outskirts of Krynky and delivered three air strikes with 26 planning bombs in Krynky direction.
  • Units of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) struck the Russian military oil terminal in Feodosia, the “Nebo-M” radar system near Bagerove, the helipad, the P-18 “Terek” radar system, and the Command post “Baikal-1M” of the anti-aircraft missile brigade.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea maritime operational zone, the enemy’s naval group is on combat duty and consists of:
    • Black Sea: 4 ships;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships.

Change in enemy disposition: not detected.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The enemy’s military command will continue to focus on encircling Avdiivka, improving its operational position in the Bakhmut area, and attempting to advance towards Kupyansk in the vicinity of Synkivka. Defensive operations will be sustained on the other fronts.
  • Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive, capable of disrupting the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.12.23  

Personnel – almost 335,110 people (+1,270); 

Tanks – 5,600 (+13); 

Armored combat vehicles – 10,456 (+40); 

Artillery systems – 8,024 (+37);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 919 (+6);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 605 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,532 (+49);

Aircraft – 324 (+1);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,083 (+51);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,570 (0);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 13 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 135 towns and villages and 67 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. One person was reported killed and 7 injured in Donetsk Oblast, three people died and 7 were injured in Kherson Oblast, one person is reported injured in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the night of December 6, 2023, Russia attacked Ukraine with 48 “Shahed” drones from two directions – Cape Chauda (Crimea) and Kursk Oblast. 41 of them were successfully intercepted and destroyed.
  • 651 children along with their families have been relocated to safe areas from 23 liberated towns and villages of Kherson Oblast, while 149 children still remain in the territory of 8 villages.
  • Eight children, four girls and four boys aged 8 to 18, have been repatriated to Ukraine from Russia and temporarily occupied territories with the assistance of Qatar, Dmitry Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner said.

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