Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 07.12.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 Russian attacks in the area of Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks in the area of Terny, Vesele, and Rozdolivka. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 12 enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka and Andriivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on the achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue holding back the enemy, which persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 34 enemy attacks in areas east of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, Severne, Tonenke and Pervomaiske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to restrain the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 17 enemy attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled one Russian attack in the area north of Novodonetske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Ukrainian troops repelled 6 Russian attacks in the areas west of Verbove, Novoprokopivka and Robotyne. On the Melitopol direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue active operations, inflicting losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment and wearing the enemy down along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River and to conduct counter-battery warfare and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces continued offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, on the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They advanced in the Avdiivka area.

General conclusion:

  • The adversary is trying to sustain the intensity of hostilities on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, regain lost positions in the areas of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and ultimately capture Maryinka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 91 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG troops repelled at least 8 Russian attacks the areas of Synkivka and Novoselivske, and at least 26 attacks near Terny, Bilohorivka, Spirne, Vesele, Rozdolivka, and in the Serebryansk Forest. Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Kreminna and Torske.
  • Russian forces attempted to advance towards Terny and Yampolivka, succeeded in advancing up to 2 km to the Bilohorivka–Spirne–Berestove–Yakovlivka line, in the wooded areas near Kreminna and Torske. They intensified assault operations north of Soledar, repelled Ukrainian attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Ivanivka, Lake Lyman, near Bilohorivka, and Hryhorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG troops repelled at least 10 Russian attacks near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
  • Russian forces achieved success near Khromove, advanced up to 400 meters on the southwest outskirts of Bakhmut, and 500 meters in the Klishchiivka area, capturing a tactical height. They attacked near the Berkhivka Reservoir and between Bohdanivka and Hryhorivka, repelling Ukrainian attacks near Toretsk.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have made minor progress in the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka and have advanced toward Stepove. They have captured and hold positions in the center of the village.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled at least 25 attacks east of Novobakhmutivka, northeast of Berdychi, near Avdiivka, Stepove, Pivnichne, Tonenke, and Pervomaiske. They maintain control most of Maryinka. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction, the “Tavriya” OSG forces  repelled Russian attacks near Novodonetske and to the south of Zolota Nyva.
  • Russian forces also attacked near Staromayorske.
  • Tokmak direction: Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks west of Robotyne and north of Verbove. Counter-battles took place to the west of Novofedorivka, and Russian troops advanced up to 1 km in depth near Verbove.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled at least 5 Russian attacks to the west of Verbove and Robotyne.
  • Kherson direction, Ukrainian assault groups made multiple attempts to advance to the south of Krynky. They fortified a foothold southeast of the village. They continue to reinforce their grouping inside of Krynky, holding positions near the Antonivskyi Bridge and in the vicinity of Kozachi Laheri, effectively controlling the wooded areas, islands, and the bank along the Konka River .
  • Russian forces dropped over 100 guided bombs against Ukrainian positions in the Krynky area over the past day and maintain positions on the islands in the Dnipro River south of Velenske.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The units of the 87th and 1487th Regiments of the 1st Army Corps, the 10th Tank Regiment of the 3rd Army Corps, and the “Veterans” Sabotage and Assault Brigade operate in the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy’s military command will continue to focus on encircling Avdiivka, improving its operational position in the Bakhmut area, and attempting to advance towards Kupyansk in the vicinity of Synkivka. Defensive operations will be sustained on the other fronts.
  • Russian forces are unlikely to completely regain the initiative in the forthcoming months, and the probability of them executing a large-scale offensive, capable of disrupting the Defense Forces’ resource allocation for counteroffensive operations, remains improbable.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.12.23 

Personnel – almost 336,230  people (+1,120);

Tanks – 5,618 (+18);

Armored combat vehicles – 10,482 (+26);

Artillery systems – 8,045 (+21);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 919 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 605 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,561 (+29);

Aircraft – 324 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,116 (+33);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,571 (+1);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general:

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 144 towns and villages and 59 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Four people were reported injured in Donetsk Oblast, one person was reported killed in Odesa Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the night of December 7, Ukrainian air defense successfully neutralized 15 out of the 18 attack drones employed by Russian forces in the assault on Ukraine
  • Overnight, Russian forces launched a nearly two-hour-long drone attack on the Izmail district, Odesa Oblast. Ukrainian air defense forces effectively intercepted most of the drones. The invaders deliberately targeted the port infrastructure of the Danube region, causing damage to a warehouse, an elevator, and trucks, killing one of the drivers. A fire broke out at the scene and was promptly extinguished by the emergency services.
  • As a result of continuous Russian shelling, the entire population has evacuated from 18 villages in Sumy Oblast in the north of Ukraine. These areas remain under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. A total of 115 villages are subject to evacuation in the Oblast.
  • Currently, according to the Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets, a total of 28 thousand Ukrainian civilians are in captivity in Russia. This number includes 2 thousand captives who are over 65 years old. Lubinets highlighted the challenge for Ukrainian authorities to verify the condition of these individuals, gain access to Russian prisons, and provide them with medication. He emphasized that taking civilians captive has become a new way [for Russia] to suppress the local population in the occupied territories.
  • Upon returning home from Russian captivity, Ukrainian citizens are in a severe condition. The most significant officially recorded weight loss of an individual over 5 months in Russian captivity is 77 kilograms, the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets said.
  • In [Russia-occupied] Melitopol and the surrounding area, a wave of house-to-house inspections has begun to compile a registry of individuals who have not received a Russian passport. Starting from January 1, these individuals will be considered foreigners and subject to registration under migration laws. This means they can stay in the territory for 30 days after obtaining a migration card, after which the [occupation] authorities plan to deport them, as reported by Ivan Fedorov, the legally elected [Ukrainian] mayor of Melitopol.
  • Russian occupation authorities have announced the evacuation of the population from the occupied Nova Kakhovka, as reported by Serhiy Khlan, a deputy of the Kherson Regional Council. Those who wish to be taken to a “safe territory” are instructed to register and gather near the hospital on December 13. The destination and conditions of the evacuation remain unknown. Following previous evacuations, people found themselves in the most depressing areas of Russia in a state of shock.
  • Since 2014, an estimated 800,000 Russians have illegally entered the temporarily occupied Crimea, while 100,000 Ukrainians have departed the peninsula, according to data released by the Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union. The organization stressed that the change in the demographic composition of the population in the occupied territories is a war crime committed by Russia as a matter of government policy.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent