Russia’s war on Ukraine. 10.12.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia,” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 7 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Novoselivske. On the Lyman direction, the Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack in the Serebryansk forestry area. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 14 enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue offensive actions south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating their positions on the achieved lines.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, which persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces steadfastly maintain the defense, causing losses to the enemy. The Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 19 enemy attacks in the areas east of Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Tonenke, and Pervomaiske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to restrain the enemy in the areas of Maryinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, repelling 8 enemy attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the Defense Forces repelled 2 enemy attacks in the Staromayorske area. On the Zaporizhzhia directions, Ukrainian troops repelled 3 enemy attacks in the areas of Novopokrovka and west of Robotyne. On the Melitopol direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue actively engaging and inflicting losses on the Russian forces in personnel and equipment, wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro, conduct counter-battery warfare, and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces continued offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, west of Donetsk, on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They advanced in the Kreminna area.  

General conclusion:

• Russian forces are currently executing offensive operations along most of the front line in Ukraine, particularly along the border between Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts, near Bakhmut, Avdiivka and persistently attacking in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They have been trying to seize the initiative on the theater of operations since at least mid-November 2023.
• Russian forces have managed to seize the initiative along the administrative border between Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts, near Bakhmut, and on the Avdiivka – Donetsk axis. The Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain the initiative in key areas in the south of Ukraine and on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast.
• The command of the Ukrainian Defense Forces substantially scaled back offensive operations even before the commencement of active engagements by the adversary.
• The reinforcement of defensive positions in areas not designated as current or future priorities for offensive operations does not indicate a relinquishment of plans by the Ukrainian Defense Forces to liberate occupied territories.
• The Russian Aerospace Forces lack a sufficient number of Kh-55 decoy missiles to overload Ukraine’s air defense systems due to the limited quantity of Russian Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers.
• Russian forces employ teleoperated wheeled and tracked vehicles for the transportation of supplies to frontline positions and the evacuation of wounded personnel in the Avdiivka area.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been 60 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced 1.5 km southeast of Terny, Yampolivka, and near Vesele. Dense Ukrainian fortifications in the Terny – Yampolivka area hinder the enemy’s progress.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks northeast of Petropavlivka, near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Novoselivske, and Spirne.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces advanced in the areas of Bohdanivka, towards Hryhorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka, northwest of Khromove, and north and west of Klishchiivka. They attacked near Andriivka and Ivanivske, capturing the stronghold “Ostriv” north of Klishchiivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced towards Novobakhmutivka and Novokalynove, southeast of Pervomaiske, near the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka, up to 150 meters near Avdiivka, and in the area of the coke chemical plant. They continued engagements on the northern outskirts of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. Enemy attacks in the areas of Stepove, Tonenke, Severne, Krasnohorivka, and Pobieda yielded no results. The enemy’s 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army and the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps are advancing within the limits of Maryinka. Russian forces attacked in the direction of Hostre.
• On the Berdyansk direction, “Tavriya” OSG forces conducted assaults near Novodonetske and Novosilka and repelled 2 Russian attacks near Staromayorske. 
• Russian forces captured several positions on the approaches to Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
• On the Tokmak direction, “Tavriya” OSG forces successfully counterattacked west of Robotyne and in the direction of Verbove, repelling Russian attacks west of Robotyne, Verbove, and near Novopokrovka.
• Units of the 76th Air Assault Division advanced to the north of Verbove. The enemy also launched an attack from Novofedorivka.
• On the Kherson direction, “Odesa” OSG forces maintained positions on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast and repelled all enemy attempts to dislodge them from positions in Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational area, an enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship;
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers, with a total salvo capability of 16 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• The Russian command has redeployed the 331st and 217th Airborne Regiments to the Bohdanivka – Khromove sector. 
• Units of the 14th Separate SOF Brigade are operating near Novodonetske.

Escalation indicators: 

• The Ukrainian Air Forces are preparing infrastructure to host F-16 fighter jets.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• Russian forces will be unable to completely seize the initiative in the coming months and launch a large-scale offensive that would prevent the Ukrainian Defense Forces from allocating resources to their offensive operations;
• The enemy’s military command will continue to focus on encircling Avdiivka, improving its operational position in the Bakhmut area, and attempting to advance towards Kupyansk in the vicinity of Synkivka. Defensive operations will be sustained on the other fronts.
• In the imminent period, the adversary’s command plans to engage the 299th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division, either to reinforce their efforts in the Berkhivka – Khromove sector or to advance from the Krasnopolivka – Yakovlivka line towards Rozdolivka or Vesele.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.12.23  

Personnel – almost 338,820 people (+700); 

Tanks – 5,636 (+4); 

Armored combat vehicles – 10,529 (+10); 

Artillery systems – 8,064 (+6);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 919 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 605 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,623 (+25);

Aircraft – 324 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,136 (0);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,586 (+1);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian+general

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 117 towns and villages and 40 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• In Donetsk Oblast, one person was killed by a Russian attack on December 9. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, a total of 1,789 people have lost their lives, and 4,374 others have been injured in the region. It’s important to note that these figures do not include Mariupol and Volnovakha.
• On December 9th, the Russian army shelled Kherson Oblast 71 times. One person lost their life, and four others were injured.
• Despite adverse weather conditions, ongoing military actions, and technological disruptions causing power outages in 455 towns and villages, the Ministry of Energy has confirmed that there are currently no restrictions on electricity supply in any of the regions. Meanwhile, British intelligence has indicated that the recent strikes likely signify a “more aggressive and coordinated approach by Russia to undermine Ukraine’s energy infrastructure”.
• According to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the Russian occupation forces carried out a raid in the occupied parts of Kherson Oblast, searching for people who give information to the Ukrainian Defense Forces. They imposed a cordon around a village, conducted searches in people’s homes, with a particular focus on those who had not obtained Russian passports.

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