Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 11.12.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attacks in the area of Synkivka and Petropavlivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks in the areas of Terny, Vesele, and Makiivka. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 13 enemy attacks in the areas of Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut, inflicting losses on the enemy in personnel and equipment, and consolidating on the achieved positions.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian defense forces continue to hold back the enemy, which persists in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 49 enemy attacks in areas of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, south of Severne and Tonenke, Pervomaiske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 18 enemy attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the Ukrainian Defenders repelled all enemy attacks in the area southeast of Vuhledar. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Ukrainian troops repelled 3 Russian attacks in the area of Robotyne. On the Melitopol direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue active operations, inflicting losses to the Russian forces in personnel and equipment and wearing down the enemy along the entire front line.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River and to conduct counter-battery warfare and inflict damage on the enemy’s rear areas.

Russian forces continued offensive actions on the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, on the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. They advanced in some sections of the front.

General conclusion:

  • In the Bakhmut direction, two primary enemy operational-tactical groupings have been identified, engaging in offensive operations west (northwest) and counteroffensive actions south of Bakhmut. The first grouping  comprises  the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps, while the second includes the forces of the 2nd and 3rd Army Corps, the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade, and separate units of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army.
  • Russian forces carry out exhaustive frontal attacks with its infantry units on Ukrainian fortifications in Avdiivka, sustaining disproportionate losses.
  • The overall frequency of Ukrainian assaults in the area south of Orikhove has recently decreased due to the redeployment of some Ukrainian forces to the Avdiivka direction.
  • The “Odesa” OSG command maintains consistently high intensity of combat operations on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian forces employ UAVs for remote mining of areas along the front line, carrying both anti-personnel mines (OZM, PMN, POM) and anti-tank mines (PTM-3 and PTM-4).
  • The Black Sea Fleet command of the Russian Navy plans to have at least four Project 22800 ships (“Tsiklon,” “Amur,” “Tucha,” “Taifun”) in its combat fleet in the near future. The adversary cannot replenish the grouping of missile ships in the Black Sea due to the Bosporus Strait closure, and only small missile ships can be deployed to the operational area through internal waters of the Russian Federation.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 98 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG troops effectively repelled at least 7 Russian attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Novoselivske, as well as at least 5 attacks near Makiyivka and Terny. They stabilized the front line near Ivanivka and achieved certain successes in the area of Serebryansk Forest.
  • Russian forces were unable to break through the Ukrainian defense near Synkivka due to dense Ukrainian minefields.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces are attacking in the direction of Chasiv Yar. They advanced to the north of Khromove, towards Ivanivske, reaching dominant heights northwest of Klishchiivka, and to the north and southeast of Bohdanivka, where the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps attacked and advanced 580 meters. The enemy’s 106th Airborne Division captured 10 positions and advanced up to 3.5 km near Vesele, and is attempting to encircle the village.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG troops repelled Russian attacks near Vesele, Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Pivnichne, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced to the east of Stepove, to the north of Avdiivka Coking Plant, in the industrial zone to the southeast of Avdiivka, and launched an attack in the direction of Novokalynove. They also put up a flag on the southwest outskirts of Maryinka.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled at least 39 enemy attacks to the east of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, to the south of Tonenke and Severne. Additionally, they repelled at least 14 attacks near Maryinka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, and to the southeast of Vuhledar. Ukrainian forces made progress in wooded areas near Stepove but retreated to positions west of Maryinka.
  • Berdyansk direction, Russian forces made slight progress to the southwest of Staromayorske and repelled a Ukrainian attack near Novodonetske. The 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army launched an attack to the north of Pryiutne.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled two Russian attacks near Staromayorske.
  • Tokmak direction: Russian forces advanced by 1 km, displacing Ukrainian forces from their positions between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka. They advanced from Novofedorivka, unsuccessfully attacked near Verbove and repelled a Ukrainian attack north of Novoprokopivka.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled three Russian attacks west of Robotyne and near Novopokrovka and attacked near Robotyne and Verbove.
  • The Russian command continues to enhance its army aviation (AA) infrastructure in the Southern Operational Zone. The establishment of a forward operational airfield in the Strilkove area, Henichesk district, Kherson Oblast (on the Arabat Spit) has been completed. A forward AA group, comprising 2 Ka-52, 2 Mi-35, and 2 Mi-17 helicopters has been deployed there to operate on the Tokmak direction.
  • Kherson direction, The “Odesa” OSG troops hold positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and conduct strikes on Russian positions in that area. They have captured new positions on the Velykyi Potiomkin Island, which they now fully control. Battles are ongoing near Krynky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 2 ships;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
  • At the “Zaliv” shipyard in Kerch, it has been established that the damage inflicted on the “Askold” small missile boat by a Ukrainian Defense Forces missile strike is so extensive that its restoration and repair are deemed impractical.
  • In the Novorossiysk base point, the installation and calibration of radar equipment on the “Tucha” small missile ship are nearing completion. Concurrently, state trials for another Project 22800 missile ship “Amur” are concluding at the same location.
  • At the “Zelenodolsky Shipyard named after A.M. Gorky” shipbuilding plant (Tatarstan), preparations for the launch of a similar ship, “Taifun,” are underway at an accelerated pace.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The enemy’s reserve in the Bakhmut sector includes the 299th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division, along with up to 8 battalions from the “volunteer assault corps” of the 2nd Army Corps, 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade, and the 150th Motorized Rifle Division. The overall command of military operations in this direction is carried out from the command post of the 8th Army. Additionally, command posts for the 2nd and 3rd Army Corps, the 98th and 106th Airborne Divisions, and the 6th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions are deployed on this direction.

Escalation indicators:

  • In the Bakhmut area, the enemy’s command has engaged additional forces in the direction towards Chasiv Yar, deploying units from the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and a tactical group of Airborne Forces. In the areas of Klishchiivka and Andriivka, they have engaged units from the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 1307th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Army Corps.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Russian forces will be unable to completely seize the initiative in the coming months and launch a large-scale offensive that would prevent the Ukrainian Defense Forces from allocating resources to their offensive operations.
  • The enemy’s military command will continue to focus on encircling Avdiivka, improving its operational position in the Bakhmut area, and attempting to advance towards Kupyansk in the vicinity of Synkivka. Defensive operations will be sustained on the other fronts.
  • The adversary’s command is expected to soon deploy the 299th Parachute Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division into battle, either to intensify their efforts in the Berkhivka – Khromove sector or from the Krasnopolivka – Yakovlivka line towards either Rozdolivka or Vesele.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.12.23 

Personnel – almost 339,850 people (+1,030);

Tanks – 5,655 (+19);

Armored combat vehicles – 10,560 (+31);

Artillery systems – 8,070 (+6);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 919 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 605 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 10,636 (+13);

Aircraft – 324 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,154 (+18);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,586 (0);

Boats/ships – 23 (0).

Humanitarian +general:

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 113 towns and villages and 63 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Two people were reported injured in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the night of December 10-11, the Ukrainian air defense shot down all 18 “Shakhed” strike UAVs and 8 ballistic missiles launched by Russian forces at Ukraine. The UAVs were launched from Cape Chauda in the occupied Crimea.
  • Russian occupation authorities in the occupied parts of Luhansk Oblast have changed the rules for car owners: vehicles with Ukrainian license plates will not be allowed to drive in the occupied territory starting January 1, 2024. Previously, the deadline to replace the Ukrainian license plates was January 2026. In addition, applicants must now possess a Russian passport to obtain Russian license plates.
  • Though precise figures on the number of Crimean residents mobilized into the Russian army aren’t publicly available, the scrutiny of secondary sources indicates that tens of thousands of individuals have been mobilized in the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea since the start of the so-called partial mobilization in Russia in September 2022, according to Tamila Tasheva, the President’s Representative to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea said.
  • The Russian Central Election Commission has decided to conduct voting for the “presidential elections of Russia” in March 2024 in territories temporarily occupied by Russia, which were previously declared as annexed by the Russian authorities.

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