Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 30.12.2023

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 enemy attacks near Synkivka, where the adversary unsuccessfully attempted to breach the Ukrainian defense. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka and Andriivka.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, which persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 enemy attacks near Stepove and Avdiivka and 21 attacks near Severne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske over the past day. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continue to restrain the enemy in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 9 enemy attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 2 enemy attacks west and northwest of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite encountering setbacks, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary attempted 10 unsuccessful assault actions.

Russian forces advanced northeast of Bakhmut and south of Avdiivka, with positional combat operations ongoing along the entire contact line. 

General conclusion:

  • The enemy forces lack the striking power to fulfill their immediate objective on the Kupyansk direction. Offensive actions have been practically halted on the Lyman and Shakhtarsk directions
  • Advanced enemy units have reached a position 2 km from the western outskirts of Robotyne and continue to attack. If they succeed in advancing on this direction by at least 1-1.5 km, the situation to the east and southeast of Robotyne for the “Tavriya” OSG will deteriorate significantly.       

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 56 combat engagements on various fronts. 
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles persisted near Synkivka, Torske, and Serebryansk Forest. 
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces advanced south of Spirne. 
  • Russian forces had previously advanced east of Hryhorivka, near Bohdanivka and Andriivka. Positional battles continued in the areas of Bohdanivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka. 
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced northeast of Vodyane, in the vicinity of Krasnohorivka, and toward the Avdiivka Coke Chemical Plant. Positional battles persisted near Ocheretyne, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, the industrial zone, Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction: Russian forces attacked from Pryiutne towards Novodarivka, attempting to attack Ukrainian positions in Staromayorske. 
  • The “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled four Russian attacks south of Novodarivka.
  • Tokmak direction: Russian forces advanced 2 km east of Novoprokopivka. Positional battles took place along the line of Kopani – Robotyne – Novoprokopivka – Verbove, particularly around Robotyne and between Novoprokopivka and Verbove.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov Sea operational naval zone, the enemy’s naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 8 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers, with a total salvo of 20 Kalibr cruise missiles.
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers, with a total salvo of 16 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • Units of the 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Combined Arms Army are operating near Spirne. 
  • Units of the 15th and 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army, as well as the 74th and 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Army, are attempting to advance to the northwest and southwest of Avdiivka.
  • Forces of the 11th Army Corps of the Russian Baltic Fleet are engaging in combat operations in the Novomykhailivka area, delivering strikes against Ukrainian forces using barrage munitions “Izdeliye.”

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
  • Localized enemy attacks exert pressure on Ukrainian forces in many sectors along the front line and may lead to a gradual tactical advance by the adversary.
  • In the near future, the enemy will commence the assault on Novomykhailivka.
  • The enemy offensive in the Mykilske area and in the Novomayorske-Pavlivka section should be expected.
  • The enemy will continue its attempts to break through along the O0532 road towards Pobieda-Kostyantynivka.
  • The attacks by the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, and the 76th Air Assault Division of the adversary in the area of Robotyne and Kopani could result in the OSG “Tavriya” units withdrawing from both Novoprokopivka and Verbove to the Novodanylivka – Mala Tokmachka line.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.12.23  

Personnel – almost 358,270 people (+750); 

Tanks – 5,969 (+16); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,053 (+20); 

Artillery systems – 8,434 (+17);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 939 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 621 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,244 (+29);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,554 (+15);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,708 (+88);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 128 towns and villages and 115 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the night of December 30, 5 out of 10 attack drones launched by Russian forces into Ukraine from Cape Chauda (Crimea) were destroyed. The drones were shot down by air defense within the territories of Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, with the main impact occurring in the frontline zone of Kherson Oblast.
  • President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that as a result of the December 29th massive Russian attack, 159 people were hurt. There are 39 fatalities among them.
  • The Russian rocket attack on Kyiv on December 29th has become the deadliest for civilians in the city, according to Mayor Vitali Klytchko. As of December 30, the death toll has risen to 16 people. Rescue workers continue their efforts, and the debris will be cleared until tomorrow. January 1st will be declared a day of mourning in Kyiv.
  • According to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, a database containing the details of over 100,000 residents from temporarily occupied territories, suspected of disloyalty, has been created by Russian authorities. The database is compiled by operatives from GRU and FSB with assistance from local occupation administrations. Access to this database is expected to be granted to occupiers at various checkpoints in the future.
  • In the temporarily occupied Crimea, the invaders have claimed ownership of 2,600 assets, both movable and immovable, belonging to Ukrainian citizens. This information comes from “Krym.Realii,” citing Volodymyr Konstantinov, the “head of the occupational parliament” of Crimea. According to him, these properties were “nationalized” from 192 individuals and legal entities. Furthermore, 24 of the “nationalized” assets were sold at auctions.

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