Russia’s war on Ukraine. 01.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 Russian attacks near Synkivka and Petropavlivka, where the enemy unsuccessfully tried to break through the Ukrainian defenses. On the Lyman direction, Russian forces conducted assault operations in the area of Makiyivka. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 10 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces keep holding back the occupying forces that persist in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Ukrainian Defense Forces over the past 24 hours repelled 4 enemy attacks near Stepove, Avdiivka and 14 attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the area of Novomykhailivka, repelling 4 enemy attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack near Urozhaine. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 5 Russian attacks near Robotyne and south of Novodarivka.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary conducted 13 unsuccessful assault attempts on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

General conclusion

• The Khortytsia” OSG forces maintain active defense on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions and are striking at the enemy when opportunities arise.
• Russian forces increase their reserves on the Avdiivka and Mariupol directions.
• The adversary has increased its activity on the Berdyansk direction, aiming to draw a portion of the “Tavria” OSG reserves away from Avdiivka. However, the current pace of Russian attacks is limited to small-scale positional battles.
• “Tavria” OSG is encountering a challenging situation to the west of Robotyne and in the vicinity of Novofedorivka.
• On the Kharkiv direction, the role of artillery is increasing. This trend will continue until the enemy establishes conditions conducive to the relatively secure deployment of aviation.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 55 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces launched a counterattack in the Orlianka rea, achieving success. Prolonged positional battles persisted along the Kupyansk–Svatove–Kreminna line, near Synkivka, Makiivka, Dibrova, and in the Serebryansk Forest.
• On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles continued near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces control approximately one-third of Stepove and are advancing towards Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, and the 9th quarter on the southwest outskirts of Avdiivka. Positional battles continue in the areas of Stepove, Avdiivka Coking Plant, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Severne, Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction: Positional battles are ongoing near Urozhaine and Pryiutne. The enemy is concentrating efforts on launching attacks to the west of Staromayorske and along the Rivnopil-Pryiutne line.
• Tokmak direction: positional battles were ongoing near Robotyne, west of Verbove,  and east of Kopani.
• Kherson direction, the “Odesa” OSG troops advanced towards Poyma, while Russian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked in the area of Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 5 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 24 cruise missiles;
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:

• Units of the 143rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army operate north of Pryiutne.
• The adversary’s command is expected to withdraw several units from the 328th and 337th Air Assault Regiments of the 104th Air Assault Division for recuperation and reinforcement, given their substantial losses in the nearly continuous month-long battles for Krynky. These units are likely to be replaced either by the forces of the 345th Air Assault Regiment of the same division or the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 40th Army Corps in the 18th Army.
• On the Dnipro sector, the Russian “Dniepr” operational grouping deployed up to 9 brigade-level and up to 95 battalion-level formations, the 227th Artillery Brigade, and four artillery regiments (the 8th, 1141st, 1180th, and 81st).

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
• Localized enemy attacks exert pressure on Ukrainian forces in many sectors along the front line and may lead to a gradual tactical advance by the adversary.
• In the near future, the enemy will commence the assault on Novomykhailivka.
• The enemy offensive in the Mykilske area and in the Novomayorske-Pavlivka section should be expected.
• The enemy will continue its attempts to break through along the O0532 road towards Pobieda-Kostyantynivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.01.24 

Personnel – almost 360,010 people (+780);

Tanks – 5,983 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,087 (+17);

Artillery systems – 8,482 (+18);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 943 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 625 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,330 (+38);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,657 (+66);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,709 (0);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 15 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 151 towns and villages and 149 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 2 people, including an 11-year old boy, were reported killed and 28, including 1 child, were reported injured in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the night of January 1, Russian forces launched a record number of 90 Shahed-136/131 drones at Ukraine. Ukrainian Air Defense successfully intercepted and destroyed 87 of them. The drone assault lasted for 11 hours, with reported impacts in various areas, including the port terminal and residential structures in Odesa, infrastructure targets in Mykolaiv, damage to a garage and buildings in Vinnytsia, and impacts on cultural objects in Lviv.
• During the early hours of January 1 in Odesa, a high-rise building caught fire as a result of the “Shakhed” attack, leading to one fatality and the hospitalization of three individuals.
• Around 14:00 on January 1, 2024, Russian forces launched an attack at Ukraine with 10 Shahed-136/131 strike drones from the northern direction. Air defense successfully destroyed nine of them.
• Rescuers recovered the bodies of 5 more individuals from the rubble in Shevchenkivskyi district in Kyiv, bringing the total casualties from the Russian mass attack on December 29 to 28.

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