Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 02.01.2024

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 attacks near Synkivka and east of Petropavlivka, where the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to breach the Ukrainian defense. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 10 enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persistently attempt to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, and another 19 attacks in the areas of Pervomaiske and Nevelske over the past day. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 3 enemy attacks near Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite encountering setbacks, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary attempted 19 unsuccessful assault actions.

General conclusion:

  • In the Avdiivka area, the enemy command is attempting to maneuver around the Avdiivka defensive sector of the “Tavriya” OSG, concentrating its efforts north of the city.
  • The operational pause on the Maryinka and Shakhtarsk directions may indicate the enemy’s troop repositioning for an assault on Novomykhailivka and an advance along the O0532 road in the direction of Pobieda – Kostiantynivka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 64 combat engagement on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles persisted along the Kupyansk – Svatove – Kreminna line, near Synkivka, Makiivka, Dibrova, and in the Serebryansk Forest.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the forward units of the 21st and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the adversary attacked in the direction of Krasnohorivka – Novobakhmutivka and advanced along the railway towards Berdychi. However, they were subsequently pushed out of these positions and withdrew directly to the railway tracks. The units of the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the adversary managed to displace units of the “Tavriya” OSG from Stepove, but they cannot consolidate their position in the village due to the fire impact by the Defense Forces. The village remains a grey area.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles are ongoing near Urozhaine and Pryiutne.
  • Tokmak direction: Units of the “Tavriya” OSG continue to hold just over 2 km of the enemy’s main defensive line northwest of Verbove. On the remaining section from Novoprokopivka to Verbove, the enemy has managed to restore positions along the first line.
  • The forward units of the 234th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division and the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the adversary have advanced west of Robotyne and towards the road from Novodanylivka to Robotyne from the side of Kopani.
  • In Novoprokopivka and west of it, units of the 71st and 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the adversary have successfully stabilized the situation, confidently holding its northern part and the area northwest of it.
  • Units of the 247th and 56th Air Assault Regiments of the 7th Air Assault Division are attempting to completely displace units of the “Tavriya” OSG from the first position of their main defensive line northwest of Verbove. West of the village, the 387th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops and the 237th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division continue to attack.
  • Kherson direction: The air force and artillery of the Ukrainian Defense Forces delivered a comprehensive fire strike using HIMARS and guided aviation bombs JDAM, destroying the command post of the enemy’s special forces units in Nova Mayachka. As a result of the strike, the EW station “Krasukha-4,” two “Buk” anti-aircraft missile systems, several BM-21 Grad MLRS, and self-propelled artillery were destroyed.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 5 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 20 cruise missiles;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 16 cruise missiles. 

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • In the area of Novoselivka Druha, the concentration of the 239th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the enemy is observed.
  • Since the beginning of the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Aerospace Forces have lost over 200 military pilots, including 59 in 2023 and 13 in various air crashes in Russia itself. Over the 2 years of aggression, according to various estimates, the Russian Aerospace Forces lost 30 to 40% of the Su-25 fleet, which is out of production, and the Russian defense industry has not been able to replace this attack aircraft with another one. At the beginning of the invasion, the enemy had up to 180 Su-25s of various modifications and another 190-192 in long-term storage.
  • The number of members of the illegal armed formations of the so-called “LPR-DPR” who are considered missing is estimated at 23,000.

Indicators of escalation: 

  • Concentration of enemy forces in the area of Novoselivka Druha.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
  • The 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the adversary will launch an attack from Kamyanka towards the sand quarry in order to bypass the Avdiivka coking chemical plant from the north towards Berdychi.
  • If the enemy manages to advance from height 230 towards Avdiivka Fire and Rescue Unit No. 13 or break through to the sand pit from Kamyanka, the conditions will be in place to bypass Avdiivka coking chemical plant from the north, which will force the units of the “Tavriya” OSG defending in the area of the Donetsk Filtering Station and the southern districts of the city (Sportyvna Street) to retreat from their positions.
  • If the offensive of the 114th and 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is successful in this area, the enemy command will bring units of the 90th Tank Division into combat. The same situation may develop in the 30th brigade’s offensive line;
  • The enemy offensive in the Mykilske area and in the Novomayorske-Pavlivka section should be expected.
  • The enemy will continue its attempts to break through along the O0532 road towards Pobieda-Kostiantynivka.
  • In the near future, the enemy will continue its attacks from the western direction towards Robotyne and will attempt to break through to the road connecting Robotyne and Novodanylivka. On this direction, the 104th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division will be deployed into battle.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.01.24  

Personnel – almost 360,820 people (+810); 

Tanks – 5,990 (+7); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,100 (+13); 

Artillery systems – 8,531 (+49);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 945 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 626 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,365 (+35);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,710 (+53);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,710 (+1);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).


  • On the night of January 2, Russia launched, according to some estimates, the biggest ever combined missile attack involving hypersonic weapons on Ukraine. Ukraine’s air defense destroyed 10 out of 10 Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” air-ballistic missiles; 59 out of 70 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles; 3 out of 3 “Kalibr” cruise missiles and 35 out of 35 “Shahed” UAVs. Forbes reported that Russia had spent approximately $620 million on the morning attack.
  • In Kyiv, according to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, two people have died, and 49 others were injured as a result of the enemy attack. 57 people were successfully rescued.
  • The Russian military struck Kharkiv at least 6 times on January 2. A 91-year-old woman died in the attacks. As of 11:30 AM, 45 people were reported injured, including 5 children. Among the injured, 38 are in hospitals, with three in critical condition and one person in a coma. As of 2:30 PM, the number of wounded increased to 52 people, including 6 children.
  • On January 2, due to Russia’s massive missile attack, nearly 260,000 consumers in Kyiv were left without electricity, and equipment at substations in Kyiv Oblast went offline. As of 4:00 PM, power engineers have fully restored electricity supply in the capital.
  • As of 11:00, two people have died, and another 16 have sustained physical injuries due to the Russian attack in Kyiv Oblast. 11 apartment buildings, two schools, a church, several enterprises, and the regional rehabilitation center were damaged as a result of the missile attack by Russian forces.
  • More than 1,694 children have suffered in Ukraine as a result of the full-scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation. As of the morning of January 2, 2024, according to official information from juvenile prosecutors, 515 children have died, and over 1,179 have been injured to varying degrees of severity.
  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 13 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 131 towns and villages and 175 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. As a result of Russia’s aggression on January 1, at least 5 people died, and 7 individuals were injured in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • In Kharkiv Oblast, since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion, 2355 civilians have died, and another 546 are considered missing.

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