Russia’s war on Ukraine. 03.01.2024
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 attacks near Synkivka and east of Petropavlivka, where the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to breach the Ukrainian defense. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 6 enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persistently attempt to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, Avdiivka, and another 16 attacks in the areas of Pervomaiske and Nevelske during the past day. South-east of Novobakhmutivka, the Ukrainian forces improved their tactical position. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack near Robotyne. In the area of Verbove, they advanced, forcing the enemy to abandon some positions.
In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite encountering setbacks, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary attempted 9 unsuccessful assault actions.
The enemy attacked on the Svatove – Kreminna line, to the northwest and southwest of Bakhmut, northwest of Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk.
- The adversary’s command has established continuous round-the-clock combat readiness for A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft in the airspace over the Azov and Black Seas.
- Russian forces have regained control of 38 out of 327 square kilometers that Ukrainian forces liberated during the summer 2023 offensive on the Zaporizhzhia front.
- The adversary command is conducting force repositioning within the tactical zone on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. This regrouping is prompted by the the need to address deficiencies in combat management and coordination between the components engaged against the Ukrainian bridgehead in the Krynky area.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
- There were 57 combat engagements on various fronts.
- On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced west of Karmazynivka, Ploschanka, near Synkivka, and captured a position on the eastern bank of the Oskil River. They continued positional battles east of Petropavlivka, near Makiyivka, Terny, Torske, and in the area of the Serebryansk Forest.
- The “Khortytsia” OSG forces struck the concentration area of the 16th Cossack Volunteer Detachment BARS “Kuban” in the occupied city of Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast.
- On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces advanced to the northern and eastern outskirts of Bohdanivka, north of Kurdyumivka. Units of the 98th Airborne Division moved on the western outskirts of Khromove. Positional combat actions continued in the areas of Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
- On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Stepove and northwest of Avdiivka towards Berdychi and Ocheretyne. Positional battles took place in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, the Avdiivka coke and chemical plant, near Stepove, near the industrial zone, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Pobeda, and Paraskoviivka.
- On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles continued near Urozhaine, west of Staromayorske, north of Pryiutne, and south of Novodarivka.
- On the Tokmak direction, Russian forces advanced between Novoprokopivka and Verbove on a frontage of 7 km to a depth of 2 km.
- Ukrainian OSG “Tavria” forces regained some positions south of Verbove.
- Positional battles took place west and south of Robotyne, near Verbove and Novofedorivka.
- Kherson direction: The assault groups from the Russian 337th Air Assault Regiment of the 104th Air Assault Division were fired upon by the Russian 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment (the 70th Motorized Rifle Division) with small arms and mortars, while attempting to reinforce these units southwest of Krynky. Subsequently, they were compelled to withdraw to the area west of Krynky. The overall command of enemy operations in the Krynky area is carried out from the command post of the 104th Air Assault Division. Under the operational subordination of this division are up to a battalion of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, two motorized rifle battalions of the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, artillery units of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division and the 18th Army.
- Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions in Kachkarivka with FAB-1500 glide bombs.
- In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
- Black Sea: 3 ships;
- Azov Sea: 1 ship;
- Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers, with a total salvo of 16 Kalibr cruise missiles.
- The Turkish government did not allow the UK to move two minesweepers to Ukraine through the Turkish Straits “while the war is ongoing.”
Change in enemy disposition:
- Units of the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are operating south of Kreminna in the vicinity of Bilohorivka.
- Near Novomykhailivka, units of the “Russian Hawks” detachment from the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 1st Army Corps are active.
- Several units of the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 40th Army Corps, previously stationed near Krynky, have been relocated to the Pishchanivka and Pidstepne areas.
- In the adversary’s southern operational zone, the air defense system encompasses the 38th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (AAMBr) of the Eastern Military District, the 8th AAMBr of the 5th Combined Arms Army (CAA), the 71st AAMBr of the 35th CAA, the 67th AAMBr of the 58th CAA, the 140th AAMBr of the 29th CAA, the 35th AAMBr of the 36th CAA, the 1171st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th CAA, and separate anti-aircraft missile divisions from the 19th and 42nd Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 58th CAA. The group ing is equipped with S-300V (38th AAMBr) and Buk-M3 (35th AAMBr) anti-aircraft missile systems, while the rest of the brigades are armed with Buk-M1. The peculiarity of the grouping is that military units and formations are not operating at full strength and are represented by consolidated air defense units or groups of units.
Indicators of escalation:
- The concentration of the 239th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division is ongoing southwest of Avdiivka.
Possible operation situation developments:
- The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
- The 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the adversary will launch an attack from Kamyanka towards the sand quarry in order to bypass the Avdiivka coking chemical plant from the north towards Berdychi.
- Should the adversary successfully advance from Height 230 towards the Avdiivka Fire and Rescue Unit No. 13 or break through to the sand quarry from Kamyanka, it will create conditions for circumventing the Avdiivka Coking Chemical Plant from the north. This scenario would compel the units of the “Tavriya” OSG, defending in the vicinity of the Donetsk Filtering Station and the southern districts of the city (Sportyvna Street), to withdraw from their current positions.
- In the event of success in the offensive by the 114th and 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades in this sector, the adversary’s command is likely to deploy units from the 90th Tank Division into the battle. A similar development could transpire in the offensive zone of the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.
- The enemy offensive in the Mykilske area and in the Novomayorske-Pavlivka section should be expected.
- The enemy will continue its attempts to break through along the O0532 road towards Pobieda-Kostiantynivka.
- In the near future, the enemy will continue its attacks from the western direction towards Robotyne and will attempt to break through to the road connecting Robotyne and Novodanylivka. On this direction, the 104th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division will be deployed into battle.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.01.24
Personnel – almost 361,500 people (+680);
Tanks – 5,990 (0);
Armored combat vehicles – 11,107 (+7);
Artillery systems – 8,546 (+15);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 945 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 629 (+3);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,391 (+26);
Aircraft – 329 (0);
Helicopters – 324 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 6,748 (+36);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,783 (+73);
Boats/ships – 24 (0).
- According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 126 towns and villages and 73 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 3 people were reported killed and 67 were reported injured in different regions of Ukraine with the majority of injured (58) in Kharkiv. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
- Today, a total of 230 prisoners of war and civilians were repatriated to Ukraine from Russian captivity. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War highlights that this marks the largest POW exchange since the commencement of the full-scale invasion, with 48 individuals among the liberated having been previously considered missing. The majority of those released are male (225), and there are five women. In total, 2,828 Ukrainians have been freed from Russian captivity since the onset of the full-scale war.
- The number of casualties as a result of the Russian rocket strike on Kyiv on December 29 increased to 30 people after one more person had died in the hospital from the injuries.
- On the evening of January 2, a Russian rocket struck a school in the Osnovianskyi district of Kharkiv, causing a partial collapse of the two-story building. The impact created a crater with a diameter of approximately ten meters, which subsequently filled with water.
- Energy workers have successfully restored 2 GW of power generation capacity at plants damaged in the previous year’s Russian attacks, according to Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko. He emphasized that nearly half of the energy facilities were damaged during the attacks and temporary occupation last winter.
- In the temporarily occupied territories, Russian authorities have introduced a new method of forced passportization and control over the local population. They intend to implement mandatory passport verification for internet users, meaning that all users must possess a Russian passport to continue accessing services, as reported by the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.
Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.
We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at email@example.com
The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/
Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion
We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua
Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre
Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA
Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent