Russia’s war on Ukraine. 05.01.2024

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attacks near Synkivka and east of Petropavlivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 4 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces keep holding back the Russian forces that persist in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Ukrainian Defense Forces over the past 24 hours repelled 16 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, and 16 attacks in the areas of Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the area of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 7 enemy attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 8 Russian attacks near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary conducted 6 unsuccessful assault attempts.

The adversary attacked in the Kreminna and Avdiivka areas, positional battles continued along the entire front line.

General conclusion:

• The pace of the Russian offensive actions on the Kupyansk direction has slowed down, possibly due to deteriorating weather conditions.
• There is an increasing threat for the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the northern flank of the Avdiivka area.
• ·The spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, John Kirby, stated that the Russian Armed Forces have deployed a ballistic missile produced by North Korea.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 59 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces were advancing to the east of Terny. Positional battles continued east of Petropavlivka, near Synkivka, Ivanivka, Karmazynivka, near Terny, Torske, Dibrova, and the Serebryansk Forest.
• On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles took place near Spine, Bohdanivka, Khromove, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, fierce battles continue in Stepove, both north and south of it. The enemy has advanced 300 meters towards Berdychi and Ocheretyne and is attempting to consolidate its position. However, the adversary was unsuccessful in advancing in the area of Vodyane. To the west of Kamyanka, the enemy has initiated a new series of attacks toward Avdiivka Quarry, and battles are ongoing in the residential sector to the south of Avdiivka, where the enemy is suffering significant losses.
• Positional battles are ongoing near Heorhiivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka.
• Tokmak direction: positional battles were ongoing near Verbove, Robotyne and Novoprokopivka.
• Kherson direction: positional combat operations were ongoing on the eastern bank, including in the area of Krynky. The “Odesa” OSG forces extensively use UAVs near Krynky, Oleshky, and Kakhovka. Their EW units interfere with the adversary’s use of UAVs.
• Russian forces launched a missile strike with S-400 ballistic missiles on Snigurivka in Mykolaiv Oblast and conducted an airstrike with four glide bombs on Beryslav and Chevrony Mayak in Kherson Oblast.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 8 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 16 cruise missiles;
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition: not detected

Escalation indicators:

• A naval group, including two “Kalibr” cruise missile carriers, was deployed in the Black Sea.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.

• In the near future, the adversary forces, specifically the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps of the Russian Baltic Fleet, will persist in their attempts to break through to Petropavlivka and towards the R-07 Kupyansk – Svatove road in the area of Stepova Novoselivka from the north and northeast. They will also resume attacks in the directions of Kuzemivka – Berestove and Kuzemivka – Stelmakhivka.
• In the event of success in the offensive by the 114th and 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades in this sector, the adversary’s command is likely to deploy units from the 90th Tank Division into the battle. A similar development could transpire in the offensive zone of the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.
• The enemy offensive in the Mykilske area and in the Novomayorske-Pavlivka section should be expected.
• The enemy will continue its attempts to break through along the O0532 road towards Pobieda-Kostiantynivka.
• In the near future, the enemy will continue its attacks from the western direction towards Robotyne and will attempt to break through to the road connecting Robotyne and Novodanylivka. On this direction, the 104th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division will be deployed into battle.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.01.24 

Personnel – almost 363,070 people (+790);

Tanks – 6,011 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,142 (+14);

Artillery systems – 8,604 (+30);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 949 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 631 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,463 (+40);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,771 (+18);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,786 (+1);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 117 towns and villages and 119 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. As a result of Russian aggression, at least 3 people were killed, and another 9 were wounded. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night of January 5, the Ukrainian Air Defense successfully neutralized 21 out of 29 attack drones launched by Russia against Ukraine. The drone assault unfolded in two waves originating from Prymorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia) and Cape Chauda (Crimea). The drones were intercepted within the territories of Mykolaiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts.
• In 2023, international observers, including representatives from the International Committee of the Red Cross, conducted around 75 monitoring visits to sites where Russian prisoners of war are detained, as reported by Alexander Markov, a representative of the Coordination Staff for Prisoner of War Affairs. However, the number of observer visits to places of POW detention in the Russian Federation and the proxy Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics was described as “small” by Markov. Markov also noted that there have been refusals from the Russian Federation to take back their severely wounded and seriously ill fighters who are in captivity.
• Following the closure of the majority of mines in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, residents of nearby settlements are facing a shortage of coal for heating their homes, according to the Eastern Human Rights Group. In 2014, the occupiers controlled 107 mines, and currently, only 17 are still operational, with only 10 extracting thermal coal. In the Donbas region, numerous towns were established during the construction of mines in Soviet times. Since gas heating systems are absent there, people relied on coal for home heating, which was distributed through various programs to workers of enterprises, pensioners, etc.
• On Friday, Nepal announced the suspension of issuing work permits to its citizens in Russia and Ukraine following the death of at least 10 Nepali soldiers serving in the Russian army. The Nepali government estimates that around 200 Nepali citizens serve in the Russian army, with approximately 100 Nepalis considered missing. Nepal has appealed to Moscow not to recruit its citizens into the Russian army and to promptly repatriate all previously recruited Nepali soldiers. Subsequently, in Nepal, the police arrested 10 individuals who allegedly charged significant amounts of money from unemployed young people for tourist visas and then sent them for illegal conscription into the Russian army.

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