Russia’s war on Ukraine. 06.01.2024

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 Russian attacks near Synkivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 3 enemy attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces keep holding back the Russian forces that persist in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Ukrainian Defense Forces over the past 24 hours repelled 4 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, and 17 additional attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the area of Maryinka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka, repelling 15 enemy attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack near Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary conducted 13 unsuccessful assault attempts.

The adversary attacked in the Avdiivka areas, positional battles continued along the entire front line.

General conclusion:

• The Russian command is currently incapable to organize and conduct an offensive operation with the forces and means deployed in the Slobozhansk direction; the possibility of a local escalation of the tactical situation, however, persists.
• The pace of Russian operations on the Kupyansk direction and the observed configuration of Russian forces in the occupied Luhansk and Kharkiv Oblasts do not suggest a threat of a Russian offensive on the Kupyansk-Lyman line.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 62 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have displaced the Ukrainian “Khortytsia” OSG troops from positions in northern and central Synkivka, advanced up to 3 km deep into Terny and Yampolivka, and are attempting to eliminate the Ukrainian foothold on the right bank of the Zherebets River. Positional battles are ongoing in the areas of Synkivka, east of Petropavlivka, in the area of Terny, and the Serebryansk Forest.
• On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. The situation is subject to frequent changes.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced by 400 meters in the area of the Avdiivka Coking Plant and along the railway track near Novobakhmutivka, by 400 meters north of the “Tochmash” dacha area; near Berdychi, they progress an average of 100 meters every two days.
• The enemy attacked near Avdiivka, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka. Overall, the fighting is ongoing on 20 directions.
• In the Stepove area, the Russian forces are advancing into the village itself, having partial success, consolidating in the eastern part and north of the village to bypass it. Simultaneously, they are advancing towards Berdychi, with slight progress, moving 100 meters northwest of the village towards Novobakhmutivka and along the railway north towards Ocheretyne, where their attacks are unsuccessful. Ukrainian Defense Forces control the western part of Stepove. Ukrainian troops are holding back the aggressor’s attacks from Kamyanka towards the sand quarry, preventing it from bypassing the Avdiivka Coking Plant from the north and reaching Berdychi. The enemy has made progress in the residential sector by 200 meters over the past week.
• From Vodyane, the enemy is advancing towards Pervomaiske, where they managed to capture the outskirts but cannot displace the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian “Tavria” OSG from their positions in the village. Enemy attacks from Vodyane and Opytne towards the 9th quarter of Avdiivka have proven unsuccessful.
• The enemy is creating conditions for encircling Novomykhailivka, where they have advanced 200 meters north of the village.
• Berdyansk direction: units of the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army are engaged in combat south of Velyka Novosilka, and the 218th Tank Regiment of the same division is fighting near Pryiutne.
• Tokmak direction: positional battles were ongoing near Verbove, Robotyne and Novoprokopivka.
• Kherson direction, The “Odesa” OSG forces repelled 10 Russian assaults on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and continue to transfer reinforcements to their positions near Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 4 ships;
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Changes in enemy disposition:

• The first batch of upgraded T-90BVM tanks has been delivered to the Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
• Russian forces are attempting to capture Avdiivka before the Russian presidential elections on March 17, but are unlikely to succeed.
• The enemy offensive in the Mykilske area and in the Novomayorske-Pavlivka section should be expected.
• The enemy will continue its attempts to break through along the O0532 road towards Pobieda-Kostiantynivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.01.24 

Personnel – almost 363,870 people (+800);

Tanks – 6,018 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,158 (+16);

Artillery systems – 8,617 (+13);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 950 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 633 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,478 (+15);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,787 (+16);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,786 (0);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 8 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 103 towns and villages and 62 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. One person was reported killed, and another 7 were reported wounded in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the night of January 6, two Russian Shahed-136/131 UAVs, launched from the area of ​​Primorsko-Akhtarsk – Russian Federation, were destroyed. They were shot down in Mykolaiv and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts.
• “All children who are citizens of Ukraine and have been forcibly displaced to the territory of the Russian Federation under the pretext of the so-called ‘humanitarian protection’ remain citizens of Ukraine. The Ukrainian authorities continue to take all possible measures to protect their legitimate rights and freedoms,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine commented on Putin’s decision to grant Russian citizenship to Ukrainian children.
• Russian forces hit the Pokrovsky district of Donetsk Oblast on Saturday with S-300 missiles. The main strike targeted Pokrovsk and Rivne of the Myrnohrad Community. Eleven people were killed, including five children, and eight others were injured. Six people, including two children, are believed to be trapped under the debris of collapsed buildings. Emergency rescue and search efforts are underway.
• On the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhya Oblast, the Russian occupation authorities conduct the so-called “nationalization” of enterprises, as reported by the legally elected [Ukrainian] mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov. Since the early days of the occupation, the adversary has attempted to seize control of enterprises, following a pattern resembling banditry. Groups arrive, followed by Kadyrov’s units a few weeks later, and subsequently, FSB personnel take over the enterprises. Presently, the enemy is striving to introduce a form of legalization for the takeover of these enterprises. They have established a commission consisting of nine individuals, notably lacking representation from the temporarily occupied territory. All commission members are brought in from Russia, and they are responsible for distributing the enterprises.

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