Russia’s war on Ukraine. 07.01.2024

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Ivanivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 2 enemy attacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Klishchiivka.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persistently attempt to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting significant losses on the enemy. Over the past day, the Defense Forces repelled 8 enemy attacks in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, and Avdiivka, and another 16 attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, Ukrainian forces continue to hold back the enemy near Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 9 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks west of Verbove, Robotyne, and south of Novodarivka.

In the operational zone of the “”Odesa”” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite encountering setbacks, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary attempted 18 unsuccessful assault actions.

General conclusion:

• The adversary struggles to enhance its capability to plan and coordinate offensive operations, considering their ongoing costly and disorganized efforts near Avdiivka.
• Defense forces are conducting a multi-day campaign of air strikes on Russian military targets in occupied Crimea and have successfully hit several targets on the peninsula.
• There is only one combat-ready large landing ship “Nikolay Filchenkov” in Sevastopol. The restoration of the LLS “Minsk” will take several years, but it does not seem economically feasible.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 45 combat engagements on various fronts. 
• On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles took place near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, Terny, Torske, Yampolivka, Dibrova, and in the area of the Serebryansk Forest. 
• Russian forces intensified shelling of Ukrainian positions near Nevske and Bilohorivka, concentrating reserves in this area, preparing for new assaults.
• On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles continued on positions west of Soledar, near Bohdanivka, Khromove, Andriivka, northwest of Klishchiivka, and north of Kurdyumivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, positional battles took place near Berdychi, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, the Avdiivka coke and chemical plant, near Kruta Balka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, in the areas of Maryinka, Pobeda, Heorhiivka, and the outskirts of Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction: There are ongoing positional battles. The forces of the OSG “Tavria” repelled Russian attacks south of Novodarivka.
• Tokmak direction: Combat actions continue near Kopani, Robotyne, Novoprokopivka, and Verbove, with both sides engaging in intense artillery fire. The OSG “Tavria” forces are attempting counterattacks between Robotyne and Verbove with small assault groups.
• Kherson direction: Units of the OSG “Odesa” continue to defend their positions in Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship;
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 16 cruise missiles. 
• At the home port of Sevastopol, the following ships are stationed:
  • project 1171 LLS “Nikolay Filchenkov,”
  • undergoing repairs – project 775 LLSs “Azov,” “Yamal,” “Olenegorskiy Gorniak,” “Minsk.” 
• At Novorossiysk, there are:
  • project 775 LLSs “Georgiy Pobedonosets,” “Korolev,” “Kaliningrad,” “Tsezar Kunikov,” 
  • project 1171 “Orsk.”
• The LLS “Pyotr Morgunov” of Project 11711 departed from Novorossiysk to Sevastopol.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• On the Kupyansk direction, the unit “Veter 177” of the 16th Separate SOF Brigade is active. Near Bilohorivka, units of the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) are engaged in combat.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division and the 58th Separate SOF Battalion of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th CAA are conducting combat operations. To the west of Soledar, the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Russian Northern Fleet is in action.
• The 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th CAA is engaged in combat near Pryiutne. In this area, forces of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th CAA are also active.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
• Russian forces are attempting to capture Avdiivka before the Russian presidential elections on March 17, but are unlikely to succeed..
• The enemy offensive in the Mykilske area and in the Novomayorske-Pavlivka section should be expected.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.01.24  

Personnel – almost 364,730 people (+860); 

Tanks – 6,022 (+4); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,180 (+22); 

Artillery systems – 8,653 (+36);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 951 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 637 (+4);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,523 (+45);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,811 (+24);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,786 (0);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).

Humanitarian+general

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 130 towns and villages and 178 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Four people were reported killed, and 21 were reported injured in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the night of January 7, Russian forces launched 28 “Shahed-136/131” combat UAVs from the area of Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Russia, and three guided anti-aircraft missiles S-300 from the occupied Donetsk Oblast. The main directions of the attack were south and east of Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Defense destroyed 21 enemy UAVs.
• Search and rescue operations have been ongoing for over a day in the Pokrovsk district of Donetsk Oblast. According to operational information, at least 11 people, including 5 children, have been killed by the Russian attacks on January 6. However, the final number of casualties will be confirmed by forensic experts. The police have collected over fifty body fragments, taken biological samples, and are doing everything possible to identify the deceased.
• New “military enlistment offices” have been set up to facilitate force mobilization efforts in the cities of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts under Russian occupation. They are headed by military personnel brought in from Russia. Mobilization lists include doctors, educators, employees of municipal enterprises, as well as teenagers starting from the age of 17, as reported by the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

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