Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 08.01.2024

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 4 enemy attacks east of Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 enemy attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persistently attempt to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting significant losses on the aggressors. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks in the vicinity of Novobakhmutivka and Avdiivka over the past day, as well as 15 attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continue to restrain the enemy in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 3 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack west of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “”Odesa”” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite encountering setbacks, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary attempted three unsuccessful assault actions.

Russian troops advanced to the west and southwest of Donetsk as positional fighting continued along the entire frontline.

General conclusion:

  • Tactical combat operations persist in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, notwithstanding the shift of “Tavriya” OSG forces to maneuver defense. Russian forces face challenges in effectively countering Ukrainian UAVs in the area.
  • Russian troops face challenges in the operational flow of information, communication, electronic warfare, and coordination of units in the Krynky area and other regions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.
  • Russian forces are establishing additional repair bases in the occupied Crimea, attempting to compensate for significant losses in military equipment, and constructing a new base north of Yevpatoria.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 35 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the adversary seeks to preserve the offensive capabilities of its forces of the “Zapad” grouping. The enemy continues withdrawing several units from the 1st and 15th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army to the base area in Zaaidarivka – Novorozsosh – Novopskov – Osynove for reinforcement. Identified assault units from these formations persist in attacking north of Synkivka and south of Vilshana in the advance sector of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. The enemy command plans to complete the movement of up to 5,000 personnel to the base area of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division for its replenishment (mainly from training grounds and training centers located in Kursk Oblast, including from the 346th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the reserve) by January 16.
  • Heavy battles continue in Synkivka, Kyslivka, and west of Novoselivske.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, in the vicinity of Bakhmut, the adversary’s 3rd Army Corps has failed to regain control over dominant heights near Klishchiivka. Intense attacks by the enemy’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 1307th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division, northwest and east of Klishchiivka, allowed them to advance only a few hundred meters beyond the railway tracks. Bohdanivka and the area around Khromove remain the focal point of combat actions along the entire direction.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the adversary is preparing to engage a battalion from the 155th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the direction of Slavne – Novomykhailivka. Up to 8 assault groups, formed in this battalion, are advancing from the direction of Volodymyrivka towards Slavne. The adversary has moved towards Novobakhmutivka by 100 meters.
  • In the Berdyansk direction, the “Tavria” OSG forces delivered a precision strike on the partially constructed Russian railway bridge near Hranitne, paralyzing rail communication in that area.
  • Positional battles are ongoing from Vremivka to the Vuhledar direction and south of Novodarivka.
  • Tokmak direction: In the area of Robotyne, positional battles persisted, with active combat west of Verbove and near Novoprokopivka. The enemy once again actively stormed the flank of the Robotyne foothold in the area of Kopani and achieved some success.
  • Kherson direction: The command of the enemy’s “Dniepr” operational grouping will attempt shortly to engage units of the 17th Tank Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division in assault actions in the area of Krynky. Units of the 17th Tank Regiment (up to a tank battalion)are concentrated in the Nova Mayachka area and northwest of it. Currently, assault actions in the foothold areas of the “Odesa” OSG are carried out by units of the Russian 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, which replaced units of the 328th and 337th Air Assault Regiments of the 104th Air Assault Division.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 16 cruise missiles. 

The enemy’s ships are located in the following areas:

  • 16 nautical miles east of Opuk: the patrol ship of Project 1135M “Pytlyvyi” is on duty;
  • 8 nautical miles northwest of the Kerch Strait bridge: the small anti-submarine ship of Project 1124M, “Suzdalec”, is on duty. 1.5 miles north of the Kerch Strait, anti-sabotage boats of Project 21980 P-350 “Kursant Kirovets” and P-349 “Suvorovets” are engaged in countering sabotage forces;
  • 13 miles west of Novoozerne: the missile boat of Project 12411 “Ivanovets” is positioned;
  • 13 miles south of Gelendzhik: the frigate of Project 11356 “Admiral Makarov” and the sea minesweeper of Project 12660 “Zheleznyakov” are present;
  • 27 miles south of Archipo-Osipovka (Krasnodar Krai, Russia): the patrol ship of Project 22160 “Dmitry Rogachev” is on duty.

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • The enemy continues to reinforce its troop groupings “Kursk” and “Belgorod” with forces and assets from the composition of the “Zapad” operational grouping deployed on the Kupyansk direction: the 11th Tank Regiment and the 79th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps of the Russian Baltic Fleet, along with a reinforced battalion from the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment, are being moved to Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts.
  • On January 4-5, the enemy transferred some of its forces and assets to the Slobozhansk direction.
  • Near Urozhaine, units of the Russian 29th separate brigade of radiation, chemical and biological defense of the Central Military District are active.
  • On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the 3rd detachment of BARS “Family” and the irregular brigade “Tsarskie Volky” units are active.
  • The enemy maintains an aviation group in Belarus, consisting of 32 combat aircraft and 29 helicopters. At the Machulishchi airbase, there are 5 Mi-8/17 helicopters and 9 Mi-24/35 helicopters; at the Lida airbase – 10 Su-25K/UBK aircraft; at the Baranovychi airbase – 7 Su-30SM aircraft, 8 MiG-29/29C/29UB aircraft, 7 Su-25K/UBK aircraft, 6 Mi-24/35 helicopters, and 9 Mi-8/17 helicopters.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
  • Russian forces are attempting to capture Avdiivka before the Russian presidential elections on March 17 but are unlikely to succeed.
  • The enemy offensive in the Mykilske area and in the Novomayorske-Pavlivka section should be expected.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 08.01.24  

Personnel – almost 365,170 people (+440); 

Tanks – 6,031 (+9); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,194 (+14); 

Artillery systems – 8,666 (+13);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 953 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 638 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,542 (+19);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,822 (+11);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,787 (+1);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).


  • On the morning of January 8, Russian forces launched a massive attack on Ukraine, employing cruise, aviation, ballistic, and anti-aircraft guided missiles and strike UAVs. A total of 59 air attack units were recorded:
    • 8 Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs from the Primorsko-Akhtarsk area (Russia).
    • 7 guided anti-aircraft missiles S-300/S-400 from Russian Belgorod Oblast.
    • 4 air-ballistic missiles Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” from four MiG-31K aircraft (launch area – Ryazan, Tambov).
    • 24 cruise Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 missiles from 11 Tu-95MS strategic bombers (launch areas – Engels, Russia).
    • 8 Kh-22 cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers in Belgorod Oblast.
    • 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles from the areas of Dzhankoy, Chauda (temporarily occupied Crimea).
    • 2 Kh-31P guided aviation missiles from tactical aviation aircraft (launch area – Belgorod Oblast).
  • The enemy attacked various regions of Ukraine. In particular, the ballistic trajectory missiles were directed towards Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts. Ukrainian air defense shot down 8 Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs and 18 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles.
  • According to the National Police, the January 8 morning attack killed at least 4 people and wounded 38.  
  • The Russian morning missile attack did not have critical consequences for the Ukrainian energy system, Ukrenergo said.
  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 129 towns and villages and 133 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the weekend, Search and Rescue Service experts evacuated 87 individuals, including 20 children and 10 people with limited mobility from frontline villages in Donetsk Oblast. Additionally, the rescue team “Phoenix” and the police managed to relocate five residents from the shelled Avdiivka to safer locations in the region.
  • As of now, more than 2,100 bodies remain unidentified in Ukraine, according to Artem Shevchyshen, the deputy head of the Main Investigative Department of the National Police of Ukraine.
  • In nearly two years of full-scale war, Russia damaged 1,501 medical facilities, with an additional 195 completely destroyed. Among them, 474 have been fully restored, and 383 medical facilities are either partially rebuilt or in the process of restoration, according to the Ministry of Health press service.
  • In the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, 64 individuals lost their lives in illegal coal mines in 2023, the Eastern Human Rights Group reported. Among them, 17 entered the mines in search of coal for heating their homes and died from carbon dioxide poisoning that had accumulated in the mountain workings. The remaining fatalities occurred among workers in operational illegal mines, resulting from inadequate occupational safety conditions. Common causes include rock formation collapses (roof falls) or explosions related to methane gas.

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