Russia’s war on Ukraine. 09.01.2024

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 Russian attacks near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 2 Russian attacks east of Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 2 enemy attacks in the areas of Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces keep holding back the occupying forces that persist in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Ukrainian Defense Forces over the past 24 hours repelled 3 enemy attacks near Avdiivka, Severne and Tonenke and 17 additional attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the area of Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka, repelling enemy 12 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Ukrainian troops repelled 7 Russian attacks south of Chervone, west of Verbove and north of Novoprokopivka.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary conducted 12 unsuccessful assault attempts.

Russian troops have advanced to the west and southwest of Donetsk and Verbove amid continuous positional fighting along the entire frontline.

General conclusion:

• The situation in the Kupyansk sector remains difficult, but Ukrainian troops have good control over the situation.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 67 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Positional battles continued in the areas of Synkivka, Lake Lyman, Ivanivka, Terny, and Zhytlivka.
• Russian forces accidentally dropped an unguided FAB-250 bomb on a residential area in the occupied Rubizhne of Luhansk Oblast.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces advanced in the area of Bohdanivka when the Ukrainian “Khortytsia” OSG forces withdrew to the south. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Bohdanivka, near Khromove, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced on a front of up to 1 km and 440 m in depth in eastern Pervomaiske and 300 m to the eastern outskirts of Heorhiivka. They captured two churches, crossed to the opposite bank of the Osykova River from Maryinka, and attacked near Avdiivka, in the areas of Stepove, Tonenke, Novobakhmutivka, and 2 km east of the Avdiivka Coking Plant, near Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, and the industrial zone. Positional battles continued in the areas of Maryinka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda.
• Berdyansk direction: Positional battles persisted near Novodarivka, Pryiutne, and south of Chervone.
• Tokmak direction: Russian forces have made slight progress west of Verbove. Positional battles continued near Robotyne, west of Verbove, and to the north of Novoprokopivka.
• Kherson direction, positional battles were ongoing near Krynky. Russian forces increased the use of aviation, unsuccessfully delivering bombing attacks with free-fall bombs.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 2 ships;
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Changes in enemy disposition:

• The 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps is engaged in combat near Spirne.
• The 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 80-1 “Sparta” Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, “Somali” Separate Assault Battalion, and the “International Brigade Pyatnashka” of the 100th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps operate on the Avdiivka direction.
• The “Russian Hawks” unit from the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army is in action near Novomykhailivka.
• The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army, along with the 7th Company of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army, is conducting combat operations in the area of Velyka Novosilka and near Urozhaine.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
• Russian forces are attempting to capture Avdiivka before the Russian presidential elections on March 17, but are unlikely to succeed.
• The enemy offensive in the Mykilske area and in the Novomayorske-Pavlivka section should be expected.
• The Russian military command plans to deploy a battalion from the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet into battle on the Slavne – Volodymyrivka direction.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.01.24 

Personnel – almost 365,990 people (+820);

Tanks – 6,036 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,203 (+9);

Artillery systems – 8,672 (+6);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 954 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 638 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,552 (+10);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,823 (+1);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,805 (+18);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 100 towns and villages and 23 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the night of January 9, Russian forces refrained from using “Shahed” kamikaze drones for the first time in a long while. The spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces, Natalia Humenyuk, said that adverse weather conditions hindered the attackers.
• As of the morning of January 9, 2024, more than 1,711 children in Ukraine have been affected by the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation. According to official information from juvenile prosecutors, 520 children have lost their lives, and over 1,191 have sustained injuries of varying severity.
• In Kyiv, the number of casualties from the Russian missile attack on December 29 has risen to 33 people. Signs of another fatality were discovered during the dismantling of a destroyed building at a warehouse facility in the Shevchenkivskyi district.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces have captured at least 41 Russian military personnel from the temporarily occupied Crimea, most of whom are likely Ukrainian citizens, according to the Office of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.
• In the de-occupied area of Kherson Oblast, over 24.5% of the territory has been cleared of mines, as reported by Alexander Prokudin, the head of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration. He mentioned that over 800 deminers examine the region daily, a stark contrast to 80 deminers in March of the previous year.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces twice shelled a brigade of energy company workers attempting to restore electricity in the villages of Lypetska community. On January 9, a brigade came under fire while inspecting the high-voltage line damaged after a night shelling in the village of Slobodianske. The same brigade was also shelled in the village of Vesele on January 8th.

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