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Russia’s war on Ukraine. 10.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 enemy attacks in the Synkivka area. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 5 enemy attacks east of Terny and Vesele of Donetsk Oblast. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 enemy attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting significant losses on the aggressors. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Severne, and another 13 attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to restrain the enemy in the areas of Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, repelling 15 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, they repelled an enemy attack near Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Defense Forces repelled 2 attacks west of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “”Odesa”” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite encountering setbacks, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary attempted 9 unsuccessful assault actions.

Russian forces have advanced to the southwest of Donetsk amid the continuation of positional battles along the entire front.

General conclusion:

  • The likelihood of a Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine remains low.
  • The enemy’s Information and Psychological Operations (IPsO) aimed at undermining the Ukrainians’ support for their military and civilian leadership and Ukraine’s will to fight, have not achieved their objectives.
  • The Russian advance around Bakhmut should be considered a “creeping” offensive toward Chasiv Yar. Potential Russian gains in this area are likely to continue to be gradual, and an advance to Chasiv Yar is improbable.
  • South of Novomykhailivka, the enemy has engaged a battalion from the 155th Separate Marines Brigade, supported by the 139th Separate Assault Battalion.
  • Attempts to advance on the northern flank of the Vuhledar salient will require the enemy command to allocate significantly more resources to build up its efforts, which is currently deemed less realistic.
  • The enemy’s Aerospace Forces have begun deploying new jet-powered UAVs, “Shahed-238” (Russian designation “Geran-3”), for strikes on Ukraine.
  • Near the state border with Ukraine, the enemy maintains a fairly significant group of special operations forces, a group of the federal service of the National Guard troops “Rosgvardia”.
  • Russian intelligence closely monitors the deployment sites and movement routes of the Russian Volunteer Corps, the Free Russia Legion, the Siberian Battalion, and other pro-Ukrainian Russian formations;
  • The enemy is reinforcing its troop concentrations along the northeast border in anticipation of active/offensive actions by the Defense Forces.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 77 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles persisted in the areas near Lake Lyman, Serebryansk Forest, and east of Terny. The enemy was driven out from part of Synkivka, but they managed to gain a foothold on the outskirts. The danger to the village remains at a very high level.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles continued near Spirne, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. Russian troops are trying to capture Ivanivske before the Russian presidential election in March 2024, but Ukrainian forces have halted their advance. Intense battles continue near Khromove, and the situation in the Bohdanivka area remains unchanged.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, positional battles persisted near Ocheretyne, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, Severne, Tonenke, and Nevelske. The most intense engagements occurred near Pervomaiske.
  • The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG repelled at least 14 Russian assaults near Heorhiivka and Pobieda, counterattacked south of Novomykhailivka, and pushed units of the enemy’s 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade out of their positions in this area.
  • The enemy maintains its positions north of the village. Units of its 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army and the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet holding positions on the eastern side of Novomykhailivka from the direction of Slavne.
  • The enemy is attempting to gain control of the village, and the fighting there has become extremely intense.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, battles persisted near Staromayorske, Pryiutne, and Chervone. Russian forces retain tactical initiative south of Velyka Novosilka, while the “Tavriya” OSG forces have almost entirely halted the enemy’s advance in this area.
  • Tokmak direction: the “Tavriya” OSG forces successfully counterattacked north of Novoprokopivka, regaining some previously lost positions and bringing the front line a little closer to Novoprokopivka itself. The enemy pressed the Ukrainian garrison northwest of Novoprokopivka, forcing to retreat almost to Robotyne.
  • Positional battles persisted near Robotyne and Verbove. The forces of the “Tavriya” OSG maintain part of the positions between Verbove and Novoprokopivka, salient east of Robotyne. However, the enemy constantly attacks its flanks (Novopokrovka, Kopani).
  • Kherson direction: Russian forces hold positions along the Konka River northwest of Oleshky on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. Positional battles took place in Krynky and the surrounding areas.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 2 ships;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers, with a total salvo capability of 16 Kalibr cruise missiles.
  • Russian forces relocated the main large landing ship of the “Ivan Gren” type from Novorossiysk to Sevastopol.

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • On the Tokmak direction, units from the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (MRD) of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA), 247th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division, and the 100th Separate Reconnaissance and Sabotage Battalion “Osman” of the 58th CAA are operating.
  • As part of the “Belgorod” Operational Grouping, a tank battalion from the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th MRD and a howitzer artillery division from the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps have been moved to the concentration area near Rzhevka village.
  • Within the “Bryansk” Operational Grouping, a battalion from the 79th Motorized Riffle Regiment of the 18th MRD has been relocated to the concentration area near Sushany village; the tank battalion of the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment and the howitzer artillery battery of the 11th Tank Regiment have been moved to the concentration area near Stara Pogosch village.
  • As part of the “Kursk” Operational Grouping, the tank battalion and two howitzer artillery batteries of the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th MRD have been relocated to the concentration area near Olkhovka village.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, units of the 106th Airborne Division have been additionally manned with citizens of Serbia, Cuba, and Nepal to compensate for significant personnel losses in previous battles.
  • In December 2023, the Russian Federation supplied approximately 5 million rounds of ammunition to the Republic of Belarus. The ammunition train departed from Barnaul (Altai Republic) on December 10 and arrived at its destination in Holinec, Mogilev Region, Belarus, on December 22.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
  • Russian forces are attempting to capture Avdiivka before the Russian presidential elections on March 17 but are unlikely to succeed.
  • The enemy offensive in the Mykilske area and in the Novomayorske-Pavlivka section should be expected.
  • Units of the 33rd and 255th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army will attempt to break through into Novomykhailivka from the north, through Pobieda, and from the northeast direction from Oleksandrivka.
  • After capturing Maryinka, the enemy will reinforce its grouping in the Novomykhailivka area with some units from the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division and the 1442nd and 1135th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian Territorial Troops. These units are likely to be transferred to the operational subordination of the commanders of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division.
  • The enemy command has to choose the direction of further actions: either continue the offensive in the direction of Heorhiivka – Kurakhove, or bring part of the forces and equipment that stormed Maryinka into the battle in the direction of Pobeda – Kostiantynivka and regroup them in the directions of Oleksandrivka – Novomykhailivka and Slavne – Novomykhailivka, as an attempt at a simultaneous offensive is impossible due to the low tactical density of troops.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.01.24  

Personnel – almost 366,790 people (+800); 

Tanks – 6,038 (+2); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,216 (+13); 

Artillery systems – 8,684 (+12);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 956 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 639 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,575 (+23);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,834 (+11);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,805 (0);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 118 towns and villages and 54 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Four people were reported wounded, 2 in Donetsk Oblast and 2 in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • In 2023, the UN humanitarian mission documented over 50 incidents where their warehouses or humanitarian aid convoys came under fire or faced indiscriminate attacks from the Russian Federation, according to the spokesperson for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Saviano Abreu. Many NGOs collaborating with the UN were impacted by Russian strikes. In Kherson Oblast, five warehouses of non-governmental organizations, including four local organizations and one international, were completely destroyed.
  • According to the latest information, more than 25 journalists are currently in captivity, stated Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, the head of the Committee on Freedom of Speech of the Verkhovna Rada. He emphasized that these are not combatants but journalists who were performing their duties, and according to civilized rules of warfare, they should not be in captivity at all.
  • Within the framework of the “I Want to Live!” project, initiated by the Ukrainian government in the autumn of 2022, a total of 300 Russian military personnel have voluntarily surrendered to the Ukrainian authorities. 1000 more cases are now in the works. The Russian Federation fails to provide sufficient information to the family members of Russian military personnel who have gone missing, been captured, or lost their lives in Ukraine. Consequently, a decision has been taken to initiate a new project named “I Want to Find!” This project aims to serve as the primary center for locating Russian military personnel, as disclosed by Vitaliy Matviienko, the spokesperson for the “I Want to Live” project.
  • Following the January 8th incident when Russian forces accidentally dropped an aerial bomb on the temporality occupied Ukrainian city of Rubizhne in Luhansk Oblast, the local occupation administration used the situation to conduct additional filtration measures. Over 300 individuals from the bombed area were evacuated, and their residences were searched by Russian forces in their absence. People were held at temporary detention points where their data, phones, and possession of Russian passports were checked. As a result, several individuals suspected of disloyalty were detained, the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported.

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