Russia’s war on Ukraine. 11.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 6 enemy attacks east of Terny and Vesele. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled an enemy attack near Klishchiivka.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting significant losses on the aggressors. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Severne, and another 15 attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to restrain the enemy in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 16 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks near Robotyne and west of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “”Odesa”” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite encountering setbacks, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary attempted 11 unsuccessful assault actions.

Russian forces have advanced to the southwest of Bakhmut, Donetsk and on the eastern (left) bank of the Kherson region amid ongoing positional battles along the entire front.

General conclusion:

• Ukrainian strikes on assets of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) have forced Russian naval forces to change their operational models and led the BSF to withdraw some ships from its main base in the occupied Sevastopol in western Crimea. Ukrainian strikes on BSF assets have also successfully contributed to the civilian use of the Black Sea grain corridor in Ukraine, as international support for this corridor continues to grow despite Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain initiative and military threats against it. The Kremlin might consider the operation under a false flag in Transnistria as an alternative method to dissuade countries from engaging in the Ukrainian grain corridor, notwithstanding Russia’s diminished presence in the western part of the Black Sea.
• Due to cold weather, Russian forces are using less ammunition, and the intensity of infantry battles has decreased on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been 73 combat engagements in different sectors of the front. 
• On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles took place in the areas of Synkivka, east of Terny, near Torske, and in the vicinity of Serebryansk Forest and Vesele.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces advanced southwest of Bakhmut amid ongoing positional battles near Vesele, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. Additionally, the enemy made progress to the west and southwest of Khromove and in the northwest approaches to Klishchiivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, positional battles persisted in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, in the industrial zone, near Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, and Pobeda. Russian forces advanced up to 100 meters near the Avdiivka water treatment facilities, near Ocheretyne, northeast of Novomykhailivka, where they captured a Ukrainian position, near Heorhiivka, and northwest of Solodke. The situation in the Stepove area stabilized, and the enemy was halted. In the quarry area and the residential sector south of Avdiivka, the enemy operates with assault groups numbering up to a platoon, suffers losses, and quickly withdraws. In Pervomaiske, the enemy was stopped but managed to consolidate on captured positions.
• Berdyansk direction: Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Staromayorske.
• Tokmak direction: Positional battles continued near Robotyne, Verbove, and Novoprokopivka.
• Kherson direction: Russian forces have advanced southwest of Krynky. Positional battles continue on the eastern bank.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 3 ships;
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers, with a total salvo capability of 16 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• In the last months of 2023, the adversary in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts has constructed dozens of kilometers of new trenches and defensive structures.
• The adversary is actively building a new railway branch between the Russian Federation and Mariupol, passing through the occupied villages Burne and Malovodne in Donetsk Oblast. The construction of the railway section Burne – Malovodne may be completed in 2024, despite the slowdown in building a new railway bridge over the Kalmius River after the Defense Forces targeted it.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
• The enemy command is planning to increase the number of assaults on the Kupyansk direction in the near future, for which they are deploying more personnel and equipment to that area.
• Russian forces are attempting to capture Avdiivka before the Russian presidential elections on March 17 but are unlikely to succeed.
• The enemy offensive in the Mykilske area and in the Novomayorske-Pavlivka section should be expected.
• The enemy command should choose the direction of further actions: either continue the offensive in the direction of Heorhiivka – Kurakhove, or bring part of the forces and equipment that stormed Maryinka into the battle in the direction of Pobeda – Kostiantynivka and regroup them in the directions of Oleksandrivka – Novomykhailivka and Slavne – Novomykhailivka, as an attempt at a simultaneous offensive is impossible due to the low tactical density of troops.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.01.24  

Personnel – almost 367,620 people (+830); 

Tanks – 6,050 (+12); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,238 (+22); 

Artillery systems – 8,699 (+15);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 957 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 641 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,596 (+21);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,834 (0);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,806 (+1);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).

Humanitarian+general

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 116 towns and villages and 43 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Two people were reported wounded in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; 1 person was reported killed, and 13 were injured in Kharkiv Oblast; 1 person was killed in Donetsk Oblast, and 3 civilians were injured in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On January 10, around 10:30 p.m., the enemy launched rocket attacks on the central part of Kharkiv. Two rockets hit a hotel building. A total of 12 people were injured, the hotel staff and guests, one of whom is a foreign journalist from the Turkish “Anadolu” news agency. Two people were hospitalized.
• Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, more than 10,200 civilians have died, and more than 19,300 have been injured, according to the report of the director of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Edem Vosornu. It is emphasized that since the end of December 2023 alone, 125 people have died, and more than 550 have been injured as a result of Russian strikes.
• During the full-scale war in Ukraine, 887 people were injured, and 227 of them, including 14 children, died as a result of the detonation of explosive devices left by Russian troops, Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko reported.
• Since the start of 2024, Russian forces have killed four people in Avdiivka, and another eight have been injured. More than 1,100 residents remain in the city. Since the beginning of the new year, the “white angels” of Avdiivka managed to evacuate more than 20 people from the front-line villages, the National Police reported.

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