Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 12.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 Russian attacks near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 6 Russian attacks in the area of Makiyivka and east of Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled an enemy attack near Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces keep holding back the occupying forces that persist in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Ukrainian Defense Forces over the past 24 hours repelled 10 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka and 17 additional attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the area of Heorhiivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 13 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 3 Russian attacks west of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary conducted 3 unsuccessful assault attempts.

General conclusion:

  • Russian troops are intensifying efforts on the Kupyansk direction, maintaining a high level of personnel losses.
  • Russian demining groups are active in the Yahidne-Ivanivka area and are likely preparing passages for assault groups.
  • Russian forces also deploy assault groups from Russian territory to the Lyman direction and demine routes in that area.
  • The intensity of general combat in the Kherson sector has decreased due to the fact that there are fewer Russian “Storm-Z” assault units in the area and a greater concentration of Russian marines and airborne troops, who do not carry out consistent attacks because they consider themselves “elite.”
  • In 2023, there was a significant decrease in the number of sea-launched cruise missiles delivered by the enemy to the 3413th missile technical base, from 54 missiles in the third quarter of 2023 to 4 in the fourth quarter.
  • Russian forces failed to seize the initiative on the Kherson direction and are replacing tactical units.
  • Ukrainian strikes forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to reduce the use of Sevastopol as its main naval base. The enemy’s naval command is forced to disperse its forces and means in the ports of Novorossiysk and Russia-backed separatist Abkhazia. There is also an observed decrease in the utilization intensity of the Feodosia port.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 64 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG troops successfully counterattacked near Orlianka. Positional battles were ongoing near Synkivka, Lake Lyman, Makiivka, Nevske, near Terny, Torske, Yampolivka, Dibrova, and in the area of Serebryansk Forest.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces have advanced slightly along the railway line north of Vesele, deploying assault companies to the Siversk direction in preparation for renewed attacks in that area.
  • Positional battles were ongoing in the areas of Bohdanivka, near Khromove, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Positional battles continued near Avdiivka, the Coking Plant, Stepove, Novobakhmutivka, Severne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. The enemy advanced 400 meters south of Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction: Units of the Russian 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army operated near Staromayorske.
  • Tokmak direction: Russian forces captured several unspecified Ukrainian positions near Nesteryanka and advanced in the area of Robotyne. Positional battles continued near Robotyne and Verbove.
  • Kherson direction, positional combat operations continued in Kherson Oblast on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 2 ships;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
  • The adversary has moved the stocks of “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missiles (SLCMs) from the 3413th missile-technical base (Sukharna Balka, Autonomous Republic of Crimea) to the 1061st Logistics Center of the Southern Military District (Natukhaevska, Krasnodar Krai). At the end of December, at least 12 SLCMs were delivered to the 1061st Logistics Center, and currently, 6 transport-launch containers have been spotted there.

Changes in enemy disposition:

  • The number of Russian troops in Ukraine is 462 thousand. Russian troops withdraw units that are 50% or less of their regular strength to the rear and return them to the front after restoration and replenishment.
  • The adversary has made the following deployments:
    • The 25th and 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 6th Army on the Synkivka – Petropavlivka line,
    • The 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army on the Vilshana – Petropavlivka line,
    • The 47th tank division of the 1st Tank Army on the Pershotravneve – Pishchane line,
    • The 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army and the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army on the Yahidne – Ivanivka line.
    • To reinforce the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade,  between 1,000 and 1,200 personnel were transferred.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
  • Russian forces may intensify their efforts to capture Kupyansk in the coming weeks. The Russian grouping in this area is better positioned to advance than Russian forces elsewhere in Ukraine.
  • Russian forces are attempting to capture Avdiivka before the Russian presidential elections on March 17 but are unlikely to succeed.
  • Units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are likely to attempt an advance between Stepove and the Avdiivka Coking Plant to ultimately cut off the O0542 Avdiivka – Orlivka highway.
  • The enemy offensive in the Mykilske area and in the Novomayorske-Pavlivka section should be expected.
  • The enemy command should choose the direction of further actions: either continue the offensive in the direction of Heorhiivka – Kurakhove, or bring part of the forces and equipment that stormed Maryinka into the battle in the direction of Pobeda – Kostiantynivka and regroup them in the directions of Oleksandrivka – Novomykhailivka and Slavne – Novomykhailivka, as an attempt at a simultaneous offensive is impossible due to the low tactical density of troops.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.01.24 

Personnel – almost 368,460 people (+860);

Tanks – 6,060 (+10);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,254 (+16);

Artillery systems – 8,710 (+11);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 957 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 642 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,612 (+16);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,836 (+1);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,806 (0);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 95 towns and villages and 20 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. One person was reported dead and two were reported wounded in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Over the past day, January 11, 11 more children and 20 people with limited mobility were evacuated from front-line villages in Donetsk Oblast. Between 50 and 150 people are evacuated from the Kupyansk district every week, the number of those wishing to leave is not increasing.
  • Russia is illegally holding more than 100 Ukrainian civilians in incommunicado status without pressing any specific charges, the head of the board of the Crimean human rights group Olga Skrypnyk said. The exact number is hard to establish because information about these people is not easily available. Among them are residents of the temporarily occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. According to Skrypnyk, only 53 Ukrainian civilians held by Russia have been verified according to international standards.
  • In the temporarily occupied Berdyansk, local [occupation] authorities stop cars with Ukrainian license plates and make the drivers register for military service, said Petro Andryushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol. As the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has reported, the enemy is preparing for mass mobilization in the temporarily occupied territories.
  • Russian occupiers have not yet recovered the bodies of the deceased residents of Hola Prystan from the buildings destroyed as a result of the Kakhovska HPP destruction on June 6, 2023. “There are still many people there who are lying under the rubble in their own homes. This includes both urban and rural populations. There are a huge number of such houses and people who have disappeared, and their relatives are searching for them,” stated Svitlana Linnik, the head of the Hola Prystan Municipal Military Administration.

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