Russia’s war on Ukraine. 13.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 Russian attacks near Synkivka and Petropavlivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 6 Russian attacks in the area of Makiyivka, Hryhorivka and Vesele. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 5 enemy attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces keep holding back the occupying forces that persist in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. The Ukrainian Defense Forces over the past 24 hours repelled 4 enemy attacks near Avdiivka and 17 additional attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the area of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 26 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks south of Zolota Nyva and west of Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 9 Russian attacks west of Verbove and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary conducted 9 unsuccessful assault attempts.

Russian forces were advancing on the northeast of Bakhmut, northwest of Avdiivka, southwest of Donetsk, west of Verbove, and on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast amid of ongoing positional battles across the entire frontline.

General conclusion:

• The command of the enemy’s “West” operational grouping is unable to summarize and disseminate the experience of combat operations, particularly the unsuccessful assaults near Avdiivka in October 2023. This results in a straightforward tactical approach on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, characterized by poorly planned and ineffective frontal attacks of mechanized units against well-fortified positions with an advance through open terrain.
• In the Belgorod Oblast (Russia), there is insufficient concentration of Russian forces to conduct an offensive along the international border with Ukraine. The recent deployment of several Russian “Storm-Z” units to Belgorod Oblast should be viewed as demonstrative actions.
• The enemy’s attacks in the Vesele area are driven by the implementation of the enemy’s command plan to secure the safety of the Soledar salient, seeking to minimize the threat of encirclement to its troop grouping operating north of Bakhmut in the Soledar salient.
• The inconsistency of the enemy’s actions in the Bakhmut direction indicates that the Russian command has no clear goal in the area. The only clearly expressed aspiration is to try to break through to Chasiv Yar, making it possible to create a flanking threat to the Ukrainian grouping south of Bakhmut.
• The Russian 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade fail to maintain the necessary pace of advance north of Bakhmut to develop their achievements into at least operational-tactical success.
• The enemy is incurring high losses among recruited foreigners and migrants fighting on the Tavria direction (Avdiivka, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast) due to poor training.
• Russian forces are attempting to advance west of Maryinka towards Kurakhove through Heorhiivka and south of Maryinka towards Pobieda and Novomykhailivka.
• Over the past day, the enemy has significantly reduced the intensity of shelling on the eastern bank in Kherson Oblast. The increased use of UAVs against targets on the right bank compensates for the inability of aviation to operate in adverse weather conditions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 89 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Positional battles continued near Synkivka, near Ivanivka, Pishchane, Berestove, Makiyivka, Terny, Torske, Yampolivka, and Hryhorivka. On the Russian side, the combat actions include attacks by irregular units on various fronts, with 150 to 300 individuals engaged in active operations daily.
• On the Siversk direction, the enemy deployed units of the 51st and 119th Airborne Regiments of the 106th Airborne Division north of Soledar, which managed to advance northeast of Vesele with the support of the 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces have slightly advanced to the east of Vesele, attempting to improve their tactical positions. Positional battles are ongoing in the areas of Bohdanivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. During the attacks on Vasyukivka, Mynkivka, and Bohdanivka, the Russian military is forced to advance in unfavorable terrain, significantly increasing its losses.
• Nevertheless, the enemy has managed to gain full control over Khromove, approach Bohdanivka and Ivanivske, thus advancing 2-3.5 km in two and a half months of intensive offensive battles.
• The main forces of the Russian 2nd and 3rd Army Corps (4th, 72nd, 83rd, and 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades), reinforced by up to 5 battalions of the mobilization reserve directly incorporated into the brigades, and two regiments of territorial troops, have not been able to restore the lost defense line along the railway.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced east of the Avdiivka Coking Plant, near water treatment facilities, towards the eastern outskirts of Pershotravneve between the Izmailivskyi Reservoir and Pershotravneva Street, achieving minor successes to the south of Novomykhailivka.
• Combat operations are ongoing near Novobakhmutivka, Ocheretyne, Stepove, the coking plant, in the industrial zone, Nevelske, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
• Berdyansk direction: Units of the 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army are engaged in combat near Pryiutne, while the 392nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the same division is involved in fighting near Staromayorske.
• Tokmak direction: Russian forces captured “Odesa” OSG positions along the road west of Verbove. Positional battles continued near Robotyne, Verbove, and Nesteryanka.
• Kherson direction, Russian forces have made slight advancements in the eastern part of Krynky. The 17th Tank Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division has been trying for two weeks to evacuate damaged and inoperational armored vehicles from the active combat zone in the Krynky area, particularly north of the T2206 road. This evacuation effort involves both regular repair and evacuation units and the 2nd Tank Battalion of the regiment.
• The 24th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division has assumed a defensive position in the northern, north-western, and western parts of Oleshky. They are likely expecting active engagements with the Ukrainian “Odesa” OSG across the Chayka Strait.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship;
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Changes in enemy disposition:

• The Russian units defending in the Poyma-Pishchanivka area have been reinforced by units from the 3rd Tank Battalion of the 17th Tank Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division.
• The adversary has established another defensive line in the area of Crimean isthmuses (from the Kherson direction), consisting of at least two fortified positions. One (almost continuous) follows the former “Perekop Val” line, and the other forms a line of strongpoints and battalion defense areas southwest, south of Suvorove village and further to Filativka village and the Sivash bank. Currently, the defensive line is not occupied by troops, but it is evident that the enemy command has a plan to deploy a designated composition of forces and assets in these positions.
• The 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army operates near Bilohorivka, and the 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the same corps operates near Berestove.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
• Russian forces may intensify their efforts to capture Kupyansk in the coming weeks. The Russian grouping in this area is better positioned to advance than Russian forces elsewhere in Ukraine.
• Russian forces are attempting to capture Avdiivka before the Russian presidential elections on March 17 but are unlikely to succeed.
• Units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are likely to attempt an advance between Stepove and the Avdiivka Coking Plant to ultimately cut off the O0542 Avdiivka – Orlivka highway.
• The enemy offensive in the Mykilske area and in the Novomayorske-Pavlivka section should be expected.
• The enemy command should choose the direction of further actions: either continue the offensive in the direction of Heorhiivka – Kurakhove, or bring part of the forces and equipment that stormed Maryinka into the battle in the direction of Pobeda – Kostiantynivka and regroup them in the directions of Oleksandrivka – Novomykhailivka and Slavne – Novomykhailivka, as an attempt at a simultaneous offensive is impossible due to the low tactical density of troops.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.01.24 

Personnel – almost 369,160 people (+700);

Tanks – 6,065 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,269 (+15);

Artillery systems – 8,728 (+18);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 957 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 646 (+4);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,632 (+20);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,848 (+12);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,806 (0);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 109 towns and villages and 88 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. One person was reported dead in Donetsk Oblast and two were reported dead in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• On the night of January 13, Russian forces launched 40 aerial means against Ukraine,  including cruise missiles, aeroballistic missiles, aviation munitions, guided anti-aircraft missiles, and strike UAVs. Eight of them were successfully intercepted by air defense systems. Over 20 aerial targets in addition to the 8 failed to reach their targets, falling in open fields, exploding in mid-air, or getting affected by the electronic warfare means of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. There were impacts in Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy Oblasts. A civilian sustained injury and at least 26 buildings were damaged by the shockwave, 12,000 apartments were left without heating in Shostka of Sumy Oblast.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces have documented 626 cases of Russia’s use of munitions with poisonous chemical substances, with 51 incidents occurring in January alone. The trend indicates a rising frequency, with up to 10 cases of chemical substance use reported daily, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
• As of January 2024, the Russian occupiers have unlawfully detained 204 individuals in Crimea, including 123 Crimean Tatars. Among them, 33 are under arrest (including 22 Crimean Tatars), 150 are imprisoned (including 100 Crimean Tatars), and 21 are without a specific status, Tamila Tasheva, the President’s Representative to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, said.
• Russia plans to construct six landfills in the occupied territory of Luhansk Oblast and three in Donetsk Oblast. The waste disposal is intended to include garbage from neighboring regions of Russia, namely Voronezh, Rostov, and Belgorod. According to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Russia already transports waste from the Rostov Oblast to the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk Oblast, having abandoned plans to build a new landfill near Rostov due to protests from local residents.

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