Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 14.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 4 enemy attacks in the areas of Makiyivka in Luhansk Oblast and Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 enemy attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, and another 15 attacks near Severne, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 17 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks south of Prechystivka, west of Staromayorske, and south of Rivnopol. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 2 attacks in the Robotyne area.

In the operational zone of the “”Odesa”” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite encountering setbacks, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary attempted 5 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Defense Forces. 

Russian forces advanced in the areas of Kreminna and Avdiivka amid ongoing positional battles across the entire front.

General conclusion:

  • The enemy’s persistent attacks through the Avdiivka industrial area are an attempt to get to the rear of the “Zenit” position of “Tavriya” OSG, and their attacks east of Avdiivka Coke Chemical Plant are an attempt to break through to the area of the “Brevno” position and block the logistics of the “Tavriya” OSG defending Avdiivka.
  • Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russian troops have used chemical weapons 626 times, with at least 51 instances in 2024. They employ UAVs to drop K-51 grenades equipped with irritant gas CS (2-chlorobenzalmononitrile).

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 61 combat engagements on different fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, following the penetration of enemy advanced units along two forest clearings south of Lyman Pershyi in the past weeks, the forward units of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are trying to gain a foothold on the northern outskirts of Synkivka. All their attempts are thwarted by the fire from the “Khortytsia” OSG units from advantageous positions east of the village.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles took place in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Khromove, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and New York.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the forward units of the enemy’s 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, supported by the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, managed to advance southeast of the “Terikon” position towards the Fire and Rescue Station No. 13. The units of the OSG “Tavriya” completely withdrew from Stepove.
  • The enemy began active actions to bypass Avdiivka Coke Chemical Plant from the east and southeast. The positions of the “Tavriya” OSG “Zenit” and “Brevno” are key to holding the Avdiivka defense area: the former prevents the enemy from advancing towards the 9th quarter, while the latter is crucial to ensuring logistics.
  • South of Novomykhailivka, in the enemy’s 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade’s offensive line, the units of the OSG “Tavriya” began to withdraw. North of the village, the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet advanced towards the settlement. The enemy also advanced south of Novomykhailivka towards Vodyane, posing a threat to the Defense Forces units defending north of Volodymyrivka and Mykilske, as well as the entire Vuhledar bridgehead in general.
  • Berdyansk Direction: Positional battles took place south of Prechystivka and Zolota Nyva.
  • Tokmak Direction: The enemy is very close to regaining the first position of its main defense line between Novoprokopivka and Verbove. Units of the 7th Air Assault Division continue to persistently attack northwest of Verbove with the aim of pushing the units of the “Tavriya” OSG towards the Uspenivska ravine. However, they continue to hold the sector up to 1 km along the front northwest of Verbove.
  • Kherson Direction: Prolonged positional battles occurred on the eastern bank, including in Krynky and the vicinity.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 11 ships, including one cruise missile carrier, with a total salvo of 8 Kalibr missiles;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including one cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles. 

Change in enemy disposition: 

  • The 1431st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops has been placed under the operational command of the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. The brigade’s actions are also supported by assault groups from the composition of the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps, the main forces of which have been repositioned both to the corps’ base area and have become part of the grouping covering the border.
  • As part of the 58th Combined Arms Army, the 49th Separate Air Assault Brigade has been formed. The brigade is currently engaged in combat operations on the Zaporizhzhia direction (information requires verification).

Escalation indicators: 

  • The adversary deployed 11 combat ships to the sea, including a carrier of cruise missiles.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
  • In the coming weeks, Russian forces may intensify efforts to capture Kupyansk.
  • The Russian 26th Tank Regiment and the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment are preparing to launch attacks on the positions of the “Khortytsia” OSG in the directions of Yahidne–Ivanivka and Yahidne–Kyslivka soon. The 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is preparing to bypass Stelmakhivka from the north, launching an attack through Novoselivske.
  • Units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are likely to attempt an advance between Stepove and the Avdiivka Coking Plant to ultimately cut off the O0542 Avdiivka – Orlivka highway.
  • The enemy command should choose the direction of further actions: either continue the offensive in the direction of Heorhiivka – Kurakhove, or bring part of the forces and equipment that stormed Maryinka into the battle in the direction of Pobeda – Kostiantynivka and regroup them in the directions of Oleksandrivka – Novomykhailivka and Slavne – Novomykhailivka, as an attempt at a simultaneous offensive is impossible due to the low tactical density of troops.
  • The enemy will not cease its attempts to restore positions along the first defense line on the Zaporizhzhia direction. It will continue to exert pressure on the flanks of the Ukrainian insertion in the directions of Kopani–Robotyne and south of the T0803 road towards Novodanylivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.01.24  

Personnel – almost 370,000 people (+840); 

Tanks – 6,075 (+10); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,302 (+33); 

Artillery systems – 8,747 (+19);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 957 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 648 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,667 (+35);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,861 (+13);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,814 (+8);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).


Humanitarian+general

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 8 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 125 towns and villages and 81 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Six civilians were reported wounded in Kherson Oblast and two in Donetsk Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • In the afternoon of January 14, Russian forces attacked the local fire department in the village of Stanislav, Kherson Oblast, with a kamikaze drone, injuring 4 rescuers.
  • Russia attacked Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, with two guided aerial bombs, destroying a granary containing crops and a grain processing facility, Serhiy Bolvinov, the head of the investigative department of the Kharkiv Oblast police, said. Fortunately, there were no victims as the attack took place at night.

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