Russia’s war on Ukraine. 15.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka and Petropavlivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 14 enemy attacks near Makiyivka, Bilohorivka, and Verkhnyokamianske. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 5 enemy attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove and Avdiivka, and another 14 attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 16 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 10 enemy attacks near Chervone, west of Verbove and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite encountering setbacks, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary attempted 7 unsuccessful assault actions on the positions of the Defense Forces. 

Positional battles continued along the Kupyansk-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and on the eastern bank of the Kherson Oblast.

General conclusion:

• Russian aviation is unable to operate in the south of Ukraine due to the freezing weather.
• The Russian Aerospace Forces are experimenting with various combinations of drone and missile strikes, attempting to penetrate the air defense systems of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 94 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles took place in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Makiyivka, Terny, Serebryansk Forest, and Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles occurred near Verkhnyokamianske, Vesele, Khromove, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and New York. Units of the 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian 2nd Army Corps withdrew from the outskirts of Spirne.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced east of Avdiivka Coke Chemical Plant along the front of 260 meters to a depth of 120 meters. Units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps advanced southeast of the Avdiivka spoil tip. Russian forces advanced southwest of Novomykhailivka. Positional battles took place near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Berdychi, Avdiivka Coke Chemical Plant, Avdiivka industrial zone, Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, and Heorhiivka.
• Berdyansk direction: Russian forces have captured positions north of Kermenchyk and Staromlynivka. Positional battles occurred south of Prechystivka, west of Staromayorske, south of Rivnopol, and near Chervone.
• Tokmak direction: Russian forces have advanced near Robotyne, Kamianske, and southwest of Verbove up to 1.9 km along the front and 500 meters in depth. Positional battles persisted near Kopani, Robotyne, Novoprokopivka, Verbove, and Novofedorivka.
• Kherson direction: The”Odesa” OSG forces continue to hold positions on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast and engage in positional battles near Krynky and Pishchanivka.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 10 ships, including one cruise missile carrier, with a total salvo of 8 Kalibr missiles;
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship.

Change in enemy disposition: 

• Russian forces have increased the number of their troops on the Bakhmut direction to 80,000 personnel. 
• Units of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps continue their operations near Novokalynove. 
• Near Heorhiivka, units of the 238th artillery brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army are active.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts, including the city of Kharkiv on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
• In the coming weeks, Russian forces may intensify efforts to capture Kupyansk.
• The Russian 26th Tank Regiment and the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment are preparing to launch attacks on the positions of the “Khortytsia” OSG in the directions of Yahidne–Ivanivka and Yahidne–Kyslivka soon. The 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is preparing to bypass Stelmakhivka from the north, launching an attack through Novoselivske.
• Units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are likely to attempt an advance between Stepove and the Avdiivka Coking Plant to ultimately cut off the O0542 Avdiivka – Orlivka highway.
• The enemy command should choose the direction of further actions: either continue the offensive in the direction of Heorhiivka – Kurakhove, or bring part of the forces and equipment that stormed Maryinka into the battle in the direction of Pobeda – Kostiantynivka and regroup them in the directions of Oleksandrivka – Novomykhailivka and Slavne – Novomykhailivka, as an attempt at a simultaneous offensive is impossible due to the low tactical density of troops.
• The enemy will not cease its attempts to restore positions along the first defense line on the Zaporizhzhia direction. It will continue to exert pressure on the flanks of the Ukrainian insertion in the directions of Kopani–Robotyne and south of the T0803 road towards Novodanylivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 15.01.24  

Personnel – almost 370,980 people (+980); 

Tanks – 6,089 (+14); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,322 (+20); 

Artillery systems – 8,771 (+24);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 958 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 650 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,698 (+31);

Aircraft – 329 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,865 (+4);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,815 (+1);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).

Humanitarian+general

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 7 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 199 towns and villages and 80 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Four civilians were reported wounded in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• According to the information made public by the Ukrainian Ombudsman at the Davos Peace Formula meeting on Sunday, 517 children and 2,828 adults abducted or captured by Russia have been returned home.
• Russian forces dropped an explosive object from a drone on a resident of Beryslav, Kherson Oblast. A 54-year-old woman received injuries to her back and legs, the Kherson Oblast Military Administration reports. Local Ukrainian authorities regularly report on such use of UAVs by Russian troops in front-line or border areas.
• Ukrainian law enforcement officers have officially charged 477 Russian servicemen with war crimes. 77 of them have already been sentenced, Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin said.
• Naftogaz reported that gas reserves in Ukrainian storage facilities are ample to successfully conclude the heating season. The company emphasized that this marks the second winter during a full-scale invasion and is the first time in Ukraine’s entire history of independence that the country is weathering the season with domestically produced gas.

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