Russia’s war on Ukraine. 16.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 Russian attacks near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 13 Russian attacks near Terny, Yampolivka, Torske and another 19 attacks in the areas of Serebryansk Forest, Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, and Vesele. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 7 enemy attacks near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces keep holding back the occupying forces that persist in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 18 Russian attacks in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, and another 16 attacks near Severne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the area of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka, repelling 12 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks west of Verbove and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, on the Kherson direction the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions.

Russian forces were advancing west of Donetsk and near Krynky amid the ongoing positional battles across the entire frontline.

General conclusion:

• The freezing weather conditions hinder the movement of the “Odesa” OSG boats, preventing them from navigating and landing on the eastern bank due to the freezing of the Dnipro and Konka rivers.
• The enemy is concentrating its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and partially on the Lyman directions, attempting to break through to Kupyansk, reach the bank of the Oskil River, bypass the northern flank of the Bakhmut grouping of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, squeeze the Defense Forces out of Avdiivka by attacking north of the city, break through Novomykhailivka, and create a threat to bypass the Vuhledar stronghold of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the north.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 94 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy has had limited success in the forest strip near Petropavlivka. Intense battles are ongoing near Synkivka. Positional battles have persisted in the areas of Lake Lyman, Makiyivka, Terny, Torske, Yampolivka, Dibrova, Serebryansk Forest, Bilohorivka, and Hryhorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces continue to advance slowly through Bohdanivka, and the “Khortytsia” OSG units could not to stop them. Intense close-quarter battles are taking place in the vicinity of Khromove and Klishchiivka. Positional battles have been ongoing to the east and southeast of Siversk, Verkhnyokamianske, Vesele, Ivanivske, and Andriivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, in Stepove, the “Tavriya” OSG units have pushed the enemy 100 meters towards the eastern part of the village. The enemy advanced south of Novomykhailivka, attacking from the direction of Solodke, and reached the eastern outskirts of Heorhiivka. Prolonged positional battles are ongoing near Novobakhmutivka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Pobieda.
• Berdyansk direction: Russian forces launched attacks to the west of Staromayorske, near Chervone, and in the direction of Prechystivka.
• Tokmak direction: Positional battles continued near Robotyne and west of Verbove where the adversary had tactical success.
• Kherson direction, Russian forces have slightly advanced on the western outskirts of Krynky and reached the Dnipro River bank.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 5 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles;
  • Azov Sea: 2 ships;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship.

Changes in enemy disposition:

• Russia is capable of replacing approximately 25,000-27,000 personnel per month and has a small professional reserve of mechanized, marine infantry, and airborne units amounting to 10-15%.
• The Russian 68th Army Corps continues operations near Novomykhailivka.
• The 11th BARS “Kuban” detachment and the UAV rapid response detachment “Bobr” of the Russian Ministry of Defense operate on the Zaporizhzhia direction. A UAV unit from the 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army operates near Zherebyanky.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• In the coming weeks, Russian forces may intensify efforts to capture Kupyansk.
• The Russian 26th Tank Regiment and the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment are preparing to launch attacks on the positions of the “Khortytsia” OSG in the directions of Yahidne–Ivanivka and Yahidne–Kyslivka soon. The 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is preparing to bypass Stelmakhivka from the north, launching an attack through Novoselivske.
• Units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are likely to attempt an advance between Stepove and the Avdiivka Coking Plant to ultimately cut off the O0542 Avdiivka – Orlivka highway.
• The enemy will not cease its attempts to restore positions along the first defense line on the Zaporizhzhia direction. It will continue to exert pressure on the flanks of the Ukrainian insertion in the directions of Kopani–Robotyne and south of the T0803 road towards Novodanylivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 16.01.24 

Personnel – almost 372,090 people (+700);

Tanks – 6,113 (+24);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,358 (+36);

Artillery systems – 8,801 (+30);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 961 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 653 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,731 (+33);

Aircraft – 331 (+2);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,877 (+12);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,816 (+1);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 128 towns and villages and 53 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. One person was reported dead in Donetsk Oblast, two were reported wounded in Kherson Oblast and one person was reported wounded in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 3 people were rescued from the rubble of the home in Kotsyurubska community, Mykolaiv Oblast, following Russian artillery shelling. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• More than 1,713 children in Ukraine have suffered due to the full-scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation. According to official information from juvenile prosecutors, as of the morning of January 16, 2024, 520 children have lost their lives, and over 1,193 have sustained injuries of varying degrees of severity.
• The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has confirmed that in December 2023, at least 592 civilians died or were injured as a result of Russian shelling.
• Due to the deteriorating security situation, the mandatory evacuation of the residents from the Kindrashivska and Kurylivska communities of the Kupyansk district was introduced by Kharkiv Oblast authorities. Currently, there are 3,043 people in these villages, including 279 children.
• The occupying administration in Kherson is intensifying the establishment of a military enlistment office network, actively recruiting personnel for these offices. This is further evidenced by the recent announcement of job openings at the military enlistment office in Henichesk, as noted by Yuriy Sobolevsky, the First Deputy Chairman of the Kherson Regional Council. As previously reported by Ukrinform, the occupiers on the left bank of Kherson Oblast have outlined plans to compile mobilization lists by mid-April.
• In the temporarily occupied territories, preparations are underway for the Russian Presidential elections. As part of this process, the occupying administrations have communicated plans to the heads of local universities, colleges, and schools regarding the mandatory student attendance at the “elections.” To fulfill the plan, “schools for young voters” have been established in the temporarily occupied territories supposedly teaching those who will vote for the first time. “In fact, these are mandatory agitation classes for the ‘all-encompassing support’ of Vladimir Putin,” the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense notes.
• The occupying authorities of the Russian proxy LNR (Luhansk People’s Republic) allowed local voters to use not only the “LNR” passport, unrecognized  even in Russia, but also Ukrainian documents at the polling stations during the forthcoming elections of the President of the Russian Federation. This includes the passport of a Ukrainian citizen, both in the form of a booklet and the modern ID-card format.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent