Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 19.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, 18 enemy attacks were repelled near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Tabaivka, and Berestove. On the Lyman direction, 15 enemy attacks were repelled near Terny, Yampolivka, and 8 attacks in the areas of Serebryansk forestry and Bilohorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, 2 enemy attacks were repelled near Bohdanivka.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. Over the past day, the Defense Forces repelled 27 enemy attacks in the areas of Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, and another 17 attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka, repelling 15 enemy attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, 4 enemy attacks were repelled west of Staromayorske and south of Urozhaine. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, 5 enemy attacks were repelled west of Verbove and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “”Odesa”” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their foothold. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary attempted 11 unsuccessful assault actions on the positions of the Defense Forces.

The enemy advanced in the area of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, amid the ongoing positional battles on the front.

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces on the Lyman direction are concentrating efforts towards Bilohorivka with the intention of encircling and capturing this village.
  • On the Kupyansk axis, the enemy’s use of UAVs has intensified twofold, escalating from 30 to 54 instances per day.
  • The likelihood of Russian forces executing a substantial operational advance on Siversk in the immediate future remains doubtful.
  • The importance of seizing Vesele for the adversary lies in its potential to provide access to the T0513 road Siversk-Bakhmut, thereby opening a new route for advancing towards Siversk.
  • Russian forces are attempting to gain control of the O0506 road Khromove-Chasiv Yar.
  • Russian forces are attempting to advance on Kurakhove and are trying to bypass Novomykhailivka from the south while attacking from the north.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 127 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles persisted near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Tabaivka, Berestove, Makiyivka, Terny, Torske, Yampolivka, Dibrova, Serebryansk forestry, Hryhorivka, and Bilohorivka.
  • Russian forces are positioned 8 km from Kupyansk and continue concentrating their efforts to capture Synkivka. The most intense battles are ongoing in Kyslivka and the forested areas near Petropavlivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, intense battles continue on the outskirts of Vesele and near Spirne. Russian forces have achieved limited success in the residential area north of Bohdanivka. Positional combat operations persisted in the areas of Hryhorivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces attacked and captured positions east of Nevelske. Positional battles took place near Stepove, Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka coking plant, Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka. The enemy advanced to the west of Solodke by 300 meters in depth and expanded their wedge penetration by about 200 m.
  • Berdyansk direction: Russian forces had previously made minor advances southeast of Rivnopol. Positional battles took place west of Staromayorske, south of Urozhaine, and north of Novodonetske.
  • Tokmak direction: Positional battles persisted near Robotyne, near Pyatykhatky, Novoprokopivka, and Verbove.
  • Kherson direction: The unit of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade made insignificant progress towards Krynky, but the units of the “Odesa” OSG still firmly control positions within the settlement.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship. 
  • The partisan movement “Atesh” discovered a sunken corvette of the “Tarantul” type in the Graf Bay of Sevastopol.
  • The frigate “Admiral Grigorovich,” 3 patrol ships of the “Vasyl Bykov” type, 2 small missile ships of the “Buyan-M” type, and one of the “Karakurt” type, along with all large landing ships of Project 775 and all mine trawlers left the Novorossiysk base.

Change in enemy disposition:  not detected

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • In the coming weeks, Russian forces may intensify efforts to capture Kupyansk.
  • The Russian 26th Tank Regiment and the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment are preparing to launch attacks on the positions of the “Khortytsia” OSG in the directions of Yahidne–Ivanivka and Yahidne–Kyslivka soon. The 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is preparing to bypass Stelmakhivka from the north, launching an attack through Novoselivske.
  • Units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps are likely to attempt an advance between Stepove and the Avdiivka Coking Plant to ultimately cut off the O0542 Avdiivka – Orlivka highway.
  • The enemy will not cease its attempts to restore positions along the first defense line on the Zaporizhzhia direction. It will continue to exert pressure on the flanks of the Ukrainian insertion in the directions of Kopani–Robotyne and south of the T0803 road towards Novodanylivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 19.01.24  

Personnel – almost 374,520 people (+920); 

Tanks – 6,167 (+20); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,445 (+35); 

Artillery systems – 8,854 (+19);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 966 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 654 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,831 (+37);

Aircraft – 331 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,929 (+4);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,818 (0);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).


Humanitarian+general

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 116 towns and villages and 37 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Three civilians were reported wounded in Kherson Oblast. One person died and two others were injured in Kharkiv Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Within two days, only eight adults and one child have evacuated from two communities in the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast, where mandatory evacuation has been announced. Oleg Synehbov, the head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, highlighted that more than 230 children reside in the two communities near the front line. Consequently, efforts by the police and local authorities to engage with the population will be intensified.

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