Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 22.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 enemy attacks near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 5 enemy attacks near Terny, Yampolivka, and another 6 attacks near Bilohorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 enemy attacks near Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove and Avdiivka, and another 12 attacks south of Severne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 5 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 7 enemy attacks west of Verbove and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their foothold. Despite encountering setbacks, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 6 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of Ukrainian troops.

The enemy has advanced in the Avdiivka area amid the continuation of positional battles on the front.

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces effectively use forested terrain to camouflage artillery and conceal the movement of larger assault groups on the Lyman direction.
  • The beginning of the second phase of adversary’s massive offensive on the Avdiivka direction can be observed during the current fall-winter campaign.
  • Russian forces are preparing to intensify activity on the Avdiivka direction and have concentrated over 40,000 personnel in this area.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 68 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, units of the enemy’s 47th Tank Division captured Krokhmalne. Russian forces advanced to the southwest of Krokhmalne and approached the eastern outskirts of Berestove. The enemy is attempting an attack in the direction of Pishchane.
  • Positional battles took place in the areas of Synkivka, Kyslivka, Lake Lyman, Petropavlivka, Krokhmalne, Stelmakhivka, Kolomyichikha, Zhytlivka, Yampolivka, Dibrova. Intense combat continues in Bilohorivka, near Spirne, Terny, and Serebryansk Forestry.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy attacked in the directions of Vyimka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Ivanivske. In Bohdanivka, the enemy advanced up to 300 meters and controls up to half of the village. Prolonged positional battles occurred in the areas of Bohdanivka, Pivnichne, and Shumy.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy has increased pressure on Stepove, advancing up to 100 meters, the sand quarry, and the residential sector on the southern outskirts of Avdiivka. The enemy has made progress in the area of “Tsarska Okhota” and the sand quarry. Enemy attacks in areas north of Stepove towards Novobakhmutivka and Berdychi were unsuccessful. In the Pervomaiske area, the enemy has achieved tactical success, moving slowly, maintaining initiative, and preserving combat readiness. In the area of Novomykhailivka, the enemy has surrounded the village from the south and is advancing westward towards the Vuhledar–Maryinka road.
  • West of Kamyanka and in the Avdiivka Coking plant area, the “Tavriya” OSG troops hold their positions and inflict significant losses on the enemy.
  • Positional battles continued near Severne, Vodyane, Nevelske, Maryinka, and Heorhiivka.
  • Tokmak direction: positional battles occurred near Robotyne, Novoprokopivka, and to the west of Verbove.
  • Kherson direction: battles took place in and around Krynky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 13 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 14 cruise missiles;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship. 

Change in enemy disposition:  not detected

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • In the near future, the enemy will concentrate its efforts on the Maryinka direction, specifically from the northern flank. It will attempt to break through Pobieda towards Antonivka and Kostiantynivka, constraining the Ukrainian Defense Forces with frontal attacks on Novomykhailivka.
  • The entry of the enemy’s 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the Vuhledar area would signify the initiation of the operation aimed at breaching the Vuhledar salient held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
  • The enemy will continue its attempts to restore positions along the first defense line on the Tokmak direction;
  • The enemy will persist in trying to displace Ukrainian forces from their positions near Krynky in the coming weeks.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 22.01.24  

Personnel – almost 376,860 people (+830); 

Tanks – 6,192 (+11); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,489 (+23); 

Artillery systems – 8,896 (+21);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 968 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 657 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,891 (+29);

Aircraft – 331 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,961 (+25);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,819 (+1);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 135 towns and villages and 195 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 3 people were reported dead and 5 were reported wounded in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • The Ministry of Energy reports that, as a result of shelling, nearly 16 thousand households and businesses in Kharkiv Oblast are left without electricity. In Kherson Oblast, 26 thousand households and businesses are affected, including 4.3 thousand consumers in Kherson itself. Additionally, 73 towns and villages in Donetsk Oblast are impacted.
  • In Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, Russian forces dropped an explosive device from a drone onto a man, riding a motorcycle on the street. He sustained life-threatening injuries.
  • The Russian invaders unlawfully transported 17 Ukrainian children with neurological and musculoskeletal disorders on a Russian Ministry of Defense plane to the ‘Ogonok’ rehabilitation center near Moscow, reported Dmitry Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner. He underscored that 150 Ukrainian children from the occupied territories have already been relocated this way. This form of rehabilitation is a means to alter their citizenship, as treatment is only accessible to Russian citizens, Lubinets stressed.
  • A medical crisis has unfolded in the temporarily occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The occupying authorities shut down 70% of healthcare facilities, converting them into military hospitals, as reported by the legally elected Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov. He underscored that he is not aware of any instance of Ukrainian medical professionals agreeing to work in the enemy’s military hospitals.

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