Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 23.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled an attack near Terny and 5 more near Makiyivka, Bilohorivka and Serebryansk forestry. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 7 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 enemy attacks near Stepove and Avdiivka and another 7 attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 21 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled an enemy attack near Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their foothold. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 1 unsuccessful assault on the positions of Ukrainian troops.

The enemy advanced south of Avdiivka and west of Donetsk amid the continuation of positional battles on the front.

General conclusion:

  • The enemy’s advance on the Kupyansk direction in the area of Krokhmalne will allow Russian forces to reach the P07 road connecting Kupyansk and Svatove, opening a new front for capturing Kupyansk.
  • The enemy is increasing pressure in the Novomykhailivka area on the Avdiivka direction.
  • Persistent attacks of the “Tavriya” OSG forces with the FPV drones complicate enemy operations on the Tokmak direction.
  • Russian forces have reduced the activity of tactical aviation over southern Ukraine. Still, they are increasing the use of various modified UAVs to drop explosive devices on Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
  • Russian forces are attempting to change their tactics to displace units of the “Odesa” OSG from the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. Therefore, the number of Russian assaults per day has fluctuated between 1 and 10 over the past week.
  • Russian forces increasingly refuse to attack on the Kherson direction due to the prohibition by the command of their “Dniepr” operational grouping to use armored vehicle support during attacks.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 68 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued to advance to the southwest of Krokhmalne near Berestove and achieved success in the Spirne area. 
  • Positional battles occurred near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Makiyivka, Novoyehorivka, Terny, Torske, Yampolivka, Serebryansk Forest, and Bilohorivka.
  • In the battle near Terny, the enemy lost up to 20 armored vehicles.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces advanced towards Vyimka, northwest of Bakhmut, amid ongoing positional battles in the region. They hold positions on the northern outskirts of Bohdanivka and attempt to advance deeper into the settlement. The OSG “Khortytsia” forces control approximately one-third of the village.
  • Positional battles continued near Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Pivnichne.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces recently moved beyond the railway section south of Avdiivka, consolidating positions in the area of the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant south of Avdiivka. They continue advancing along Sportyvna, Soborna, and Cherenishevsky streets on the southern outskirts of Avdiivka and achieve success north of Mykilske.
  • The OSG “Tavriya” forces control the territory between the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant, Avdiivka quarry, and the “Vynohradnyky” gardening community.
  • Positional battles took place near Ocheretyne, Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Heorhiivka, and Novomykhailivka.
  • The OSG “Tavriya” forces have advanced in the area of the “Trudovska” mine and south of Krasnohorivka.
  • Berdyansk direction: The OSG “Tavriya” forces have advanced south of Urozhaine. Positional battles persisted near Novodonetske, Staromayorske, and Zavitne Bazhannia.
  • Tokmak direction: The OSG “Tavriya” forces captured several enemy positions near Verbove. Positional battles continued near Robotyne, Verbove, Novoprokopivka, Pyatykhatky, and Kamianske.
  • Kherson direction: The OSG “Odesa” forces hold positions on the eastern bank of the Kherson Oblast. Positional battles occurred near Krynky.
  • Russian forces continue to deliver strikes with heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A on Ukrainian positions in Krynky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 10 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 14 cruise missiles;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:  

  • In the area of Vesele, units of the enemy’s 106th Airborne Division are engaged in combat. The 98th Airborne Division and the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade operate northwest of Bakhmut. In the vicinity of Bohdanivka, units of the “Sever” brigade are advancing.
  • The unit “Pyatnashka” from the composition of the PMC “Redut” is in combat near Avdiivka. The 1487th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 1st Army Corps is advancing south of Avdiivka, near the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant.
  • In the vicinity of Novomykhailivka, the 68th Army Corps is engaged in combat, and near Heorhiivka, units from the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps, and the 238th Artillery Brigade (all from the composition of the 8th Combined Arms Army.)
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense transferred to the composition of the enemy’s “Vostok(East)” operational grouping an unspecified number of upgraded T-72B3M tanks with an improved fire control system with a digital ballistic computer, a laser rangefinder sight, an anti-tank guided missile control system, a modernized digital communication system, a rear-view camera, and more reliable tracks. The tanks are reinforced with side screens, lattice screens, and new protection systems.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • The entry of the enemy’s 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the Vuhledar area would signify the initiation of the operation aimed at breaching the Vuhledar salient held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
  • The enemy will persist in trying to displace Ukrainian forces from their positions near Krynky in the coming weeks.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 23.01.24  

Personnel – almost 377,820 people (+960); 

Tanks – 6,214 (+22); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,548 (+59); 

Artillery systems – 8,947 (+51);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 970 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 657 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 11,956 (+65);

Aircraft – 331 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 6,961 (0);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,820 (+1);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).


  • On the morning of January 23, Russian forces carried out a mass missile attack on Ukraine,  deploying a total of 41 aerial attack means. Ukrainian air defense effectively intercepted 21 enemy missiles, including 15 X-101/X-555/X-55 cruise missiles, 5 “Iskander-M” ballistic missiles and one X-59 guided aviation missile.
  • On the morning of January 23, the aggressors targeted Kyiv with missiles of various types, causing damage to buildings in several districts of the city. 22 people have been injured, including 4 children. 28 objects were damaged: houses, medical facilities, educational institutions and cars. In response to the discovery of an undetonated part of a missile in an apartment, residents were evacuated from a residential building. The unexploded missile was safely removed later in the day.
  • Two waves of Russian attacks hit Kharkiv on January 23 – at around four and seven in the morning, totaling approximately 12 strikes. The attacks were combined, involving the use of S-300 systems, X-32 missiles, and “Iskander” missiles and targeted residential areas. The most significant damage occurred in the Saltivsky and Kyivsky districts, where more than 30 buildings were affected by the explosions. The number of victims continues to rise. According to the updated information, there are already 8 dead and 57 injured, including four children in a moderately serious condition.
  • In the evening, Russian occupiers struck the Kyiv district of Kharkiv for the third time in a day, causing damage to civilian infrastructure. Emergency services have been dispatched to the scene, and information about casualties is being clarified. The occupiers targeted an educational institution, resulting in damage to residential infrastructure and vehicle fires, as reported by the Regional Military Administration. Medical teams are providing assistance to four wounded individuals, including a four-year-old child.
  • As a result of the morning bombardment of Kharkiv, transformer substations were impacted, causing power outages for 11,000 consumers.
  • For 19 months, Russia has concealed the status and whereabouts of 1,600 captured defenders of Azovstal and Mariupol, violating the norms of the Geneva Convention. No large exchanges have occurred for the past six months, marking the longest period without swaps, as reported by the Association of Families of Azovstal Defenders.
  • In Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, a total of 18.5 thousand hectares of forest areas still contain landmines.
  • In 2023, Russia allocated a total of 675 billion rubles (7.6 billion dollars) in subsidies to the occupied territories of Ukraine. The budgetary reliance of the occupation administration in the self-proclaimed “DNR” on federal assistance for 2023 reached 82%, while the so-called “LNR” recorded 81.6%. Zaporizhzhia Oblast displayed a dependency of 89.5%, and Kherson Oblast stood at 86.8%. Plans for 2024 indicate a significant reduction in subsidies for maintaining the occupied territories, with the allocated amount set to decrease to 430 billion rubles (including Crimea).

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent