Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 27.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks near Tabaivka and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 8 attacks near Terny and Torske. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, and Avdiivka, and another 9 attacks in the areas of Opytne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, repelling 14 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, they repelled an enemy attack near Zolota Nyva. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 6 enemy attacks north of Pryiutne, south of Chervone, west of Verbove and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their foothold. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 4 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of Ukrainian troops.

The adversary advanced near Avdiivka, and positional battles persisted along the entire front line.

General conclusion:

  • The adversary maintains the initiative and carries out massive assaults in some sectors.
  • Russian forces continue applying maximum pressure south of Avdiivka. However, they are gradually losing momentum in their advance.
  • The consolidation of the adversary in the forest near the ruins of the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant and in the residential area will significantly complicate the defense.
  • On the Kherson front, in the area of Krynky, the adversary provides time windows by disabling electronic jamming stations for their FPV drone operators to perform their tasks without interference. The rest of the time, they require continuous radio-electronic cover from the FPV drones of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 98 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles continued near Synkivka, part of which has been captured by the enemy; near Tabaivka, Stelmakhivka, Makiyivka, where the situation is complicated; near Torske, Terny, Kreminna, Bilohorivka, and Hryhorivka. The enemy is gradually launching an assault on Kyslivka. The 119th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division is consolidating in Vesele.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy is trying to build on tactical successes. Positional battles continued in the areas of Bohdanivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced up to 200 meters north of Stepove, along Sportyvna Street in Avdiivka, near Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka. Positional battles took place in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Pobeda, and Novomykhailivka.
  • On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles took place near Zolota Nyva, Pryiutne, Chervone, and near Staromayorske.
  • On the Tokmak direction, positional battles continued near Robotyne and Verbove.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 6 ships, including 4 cruise missile carriers with a total salvo of 22 Kalibr cruise missiles;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:  

  • Near Bilohorivka, the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army is advancing.
  • On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the 56th and 108th Airborne Regiments of the 7th Airborne Division are in action.
  • The 28th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, deployed near Krynky in Kherson Oblast, is almost entirely staffed with residents of Moscow.

Indicators of escalation: 

  • The enemy deployed 4 Kalibr missile carriers to the areas of combat duty in the Black Sea with a total salvo of 22 cruise missiles.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • After failing to encircle Avdiivka, Russian forces are preparing to break through the city. This indicates that the enemy command is gradually returning to a strategy reminiscent of the Bakhmut operation.
  • The enemy is completing the creation of favorable conditions for the capture of the Khimik neighborhood in Avdiivka. Its loss would render further defense of the city impractical.
  • The entry of the enemy’s 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the Vuhledar area would signify the initiation of the operation aimed at breaching the Vuhledar salient held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 27.01.24  

Personnel – almost 381,370 people (+770); 

Tanks – 6,271 (+6); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,652 (+15); 

Artillery systems – 9,085 (+3);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 972 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 660 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,072 (+8);

Aircraft – 331 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,037 (+4);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,845 (0);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 122 towns and villages and 92 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 2 people were reported dead and 7 injured in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson Oblasts. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • As of the morning of January 27, 2024, according to official information from juvenile prosecutors, 521 Ukrainian children have lost their lives, and more than 1,215 have sustained injuries of varying severity due to the full-scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation.
  • During the night of January 27, the Russians attacked Ukraine with four “Shahed” drones, which were successfully intercepted by air defense systems, and an “Iskander-M” missile. All four UAVs were destroyed in Kirovohrad Oblast. The missile hit Donetsk Oblast, no casualties were reported. 
  • In the city of New York in Donetsk Oblast, the cleanup of debris from a three-story building targeted by Russian forces with CABs on January 15 has been completed. The remains of all five deceased individuals have been recovered.
  • On the morning of January 27, Russian saboteurs opened fire on a vehicle carrying civilians between two villages of the Khotynska community in Sumy Oblast. The 54-year-old man who was driving and his 68-year-old sister were killed in the attack.

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