Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 28.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, theUkrainian Defence Forces repelled 7 enemy attacks near Synkivka, Tabaivka and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 Russian attacks near Terny, Yampolivka, Torske and Bilohorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 7 enemy attacks in the areas of Ivanivske and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 28 enemy attacks near Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the area of Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 14 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks south of Zolota Nyva and west of Staromayorske. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled a Russian attack west of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their foothold. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 2 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of Ukrainian troops.

The adversary has advanced near Kupyansk, Kreminna, and Avdiivka; positional battles are ongoing along the entire frontline.

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces are increasing efforts to advance on the Terny-Makiyivka sector.
  • Recent Russian successes near the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant on the southern outskirts of Avdiivka and their advancement along Soborna Street in the south of the city pose a tactical threat of encirclement to Ukrainian forces operating in that area.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 79 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, in Synkivka, the “Khortytsia” OSG units managed to regain some of previously lost positions.
  • Russian forces advanced to the east of Makiyivka and west of Dibrova. Positional battles were ongoing near Stelmakhivka, Tabaivka, Berestove, Yampolivka, Torske, Terny, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, west of Khromove, the enemy has achieved success, advancing by 200 meters. Positional battles were ongoing near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Shumy. Russian forces control 40% of Bohdanivka, but the village is not tactically significant due to its lowland location.
  • In the area of Ivanivske, the forces of the “Khortytsia” OSG have somewhat pushed back the enemy.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the situation remains difficult, especially in Pervomaiske. The enemy has not advanced near Novomykhailivka; the “Tavriya” OSG forces gradually regain control of the situation. Russian forces recently moved further south of Vesele, continuing offensive actions on the southern outskirts of Avdiivka and in the southern residential area of the city.
  • Positional battles continued in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke, Opytne, Vodyane, Nevelske, and Heorhiivka.
  • Berdyansk direction: positional battles took place in the area of Zolota Nyva, Staromayorske, Rivnopol, and Pryiutne.
  • Tokmak direction: Russian forces have advanced slightly west of Robotyne. Positional battles continued south of Chervone, west of Verbove, and in the direction of Novoprokopivka.
  • Kherson direction, positional fighting continues near Krynky. Units of “Odesa” OSG conducted a drone strike on targets in Nova Kakhovka.
  • Russian forces are regrouping and reinforcing units operating between Oleshky and Korsunka on the eastern bank.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 6 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
  • The Russian government has transferred control over the part of the Azov Sea waters to military unit 6942 in Kerch for 20 years to ensure defense and security. Any utilization of this maritime zone by both [civilian] legal entities and individuals, including for fishing purposes, is prohibited.

Changes in enemy disposition:

  • The unit “Veter-177” of the 16th Separate SOF Brigade is deployed on the Kupyansk direction, .
  • The 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (25th Combined Arms Army) and the 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army) are engaged in combat in the vicinity of Yampolivka. Units of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division and the 169th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (25th Combined Arms Army) are operating to the west and northwest of Dibrova. The “Aida” unit of the Akhmat Kadyrov Chechen battalion is active near Kreminna and Bilohorivka.
  • The 137th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division is advancing north of Bakhmut. The 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Russian Northern Fleet is engaged in combat in the vicinity of Berkhivka Reservoir.
  • The 80th and 239th Tank Regiments of the 90th Tank Division (41st Combined Arms Army) are advancing in the Avdiivka area. The 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st Combined Arms Army) is operating near Spartak, and the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps (8th Combined Arms Army) is operating near Pervomaiske.
  • The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps (8th Combined Arms Army) is advancing near Chervone.
  • The 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division (5th Combined Arms Army) operates in the area of Pryiutne. The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of (49th Combined Arms Army) is also engaged in this area.
  • Between Oleshky and Korsunka in Kherson Oblast, the enemy is forming a tactical group consisting of up to 7 battalions from the composition of the 26th and 28th Motorized Rifle Regiments, 17th Tank Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division (18th Combined Arms Army,) 328th and 337th Air Assault Regiments of the 104th Air Assault Division, and the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Escalation indicators:

  • The enemy has significantly increased the intensity of artillery shelling on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions. Russian forces have intensified their advance on the Avdiivka direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • After failing to encircle Avdiivka, Russian forces are preparing to break through the city. This indicates that the enemy command is gradually returning to a strategy reminiscent of the Bakhmut operation.
  • The enemy is completing the creation of favorable conditions for the capture of the Khimik neighborhood in Avdiivka. Its loss would render further defense of the city impractical.
  • The entry of the enemy’s 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the Vuhledar area would signify the initiation of the operation aimed at breaching the Vuhledar salient held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 28.01.24 

Personnel – almost 382,110 people (+740);

Tanks – 6,280 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,671 (+19);

Artillery systems – 9,097 (+12);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 972 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 660 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,103 (+31);

Aircraft – 331 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,041 (+4);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,845 (0);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 118 towns and villages and 58 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 3 people were reported dead and 9 injured in different Oblasts of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the night of January 28, the Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 8 “Shahed” UAVs, 4 of which were destroyed, and two “Iskander-M” missiles. The missiles hit an industrial facility in the Kremenchuk district of Poltava Oblast causing a fire.
  • The Russian army killed the last resident of Stepok village, located near the border with Russia, adjacent to the humanitarian crossing “Pokrovka-Kolotylivka” in Sumy Oblast. A shell hit the room where 60-year-old Oleksandr Mykolaiovych was staying. According to the son of the deceased, his father was the last resident of the village, as all other people had been evacuated. The man chose not to leave.
  • Since the beginning of January, Ukrainian border guards have recorded over 1,800 shelling incidents of the border territories in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts. The majority of the incidents were reported along the borders of Kharkiv Oblast.
  • In the occupied Sieverodonetsk, the only heating plant that the occupation authorities managed to repair before winter has stopped working. They have not provided information about the repair timeline. Even prior to this breakdown, the heating plant, along with several modular hubs situated in the city’s neighborhoods, struggled to deliver sufficient heating to the structures designated by the occupying forces, reported Artem Lysohor, the head of the Military Administration in Luhansk Oblast.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent