Russia’s war on Ukraine. 30.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 enemy attacks near Synkivka and east of Pishchane. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 4 attacks in the areas of Serebryansk Forestry and Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka and Ivanivske.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. Over the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 24 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, repelling 8 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, they repelled 2 enemy attacks near Zolota Nyva. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 2 enemy attacks west of Verbove and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “”Odesa”” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their foothold. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 8 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of Ukrainian troops.

The enemy has advanced near Kreminna and Avdiivka; positional battles have been ongoing along the entire front line.

General conclusion:

• The enemy is increasing efforts in the Terny area and attempting to bypass Siversk from the north.
• “Khortytsia” OSG forces are concentrating on holding positions near Tabaivka and blocking enemy attempts to break through to the heights behind the village, primarily towards Pishchane.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 70 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, battles continued around Tabaivka, where the “Khortytsia” OSG forces conducted several successful counterattacks, pushing the enemy out of most of the village. Russian forces achieved limited success in the forest strip east of Yampolivka, advancing towards Torske. Positional battles took place near Synkivka, Pishchane, Terny, Bilohorivka, and in the Serebryansk Forest area.
• On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces are advancing in the grey zone near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and towards Chasiv Yar. They reclaimed previously lost positions along the railway near Ivanivske. Positional battles occurred near Bilohorivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Shumy, and Pivnichne.
• On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces slightly advanced to the southeast outskirts of Avdiivka, near Stepove, south of Novokalynove, along Voroshilov Street in Pervomaiske, and in the areas of Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka. 
• Positional battles continued near Ocheretyne, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, east of Avdiivka Coking Chemical Plant, near the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, and Pobeda. The enemy captured up to 200 meters of the grey zone near Novomykhailivka but couldn’t reach Krasnohorivka.
• Berdyansk direction: Russian forces have advanced to the north of Pryiutne. Positional battles took place north of Pryiutne, near Zolota Nyva and Staromayorske.
• Tokmak direction: Positional battles were ongoing near Robotyne and Verbove.
• Kherson direction: Russian forces achieved limited success in Krynky and continued positional battles on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast. 
• Russian troops in occupied Crimea are forming new military units to reinforce the enemy’s “Dniepr” operational grouping in Kherson Oblast.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Black Sea: 5 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles;
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:  

• On the Berdyansk direction, combat operations are conducted by the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division (5th Combined Arms Army) and the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet. Near Pryiutne, the 143rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th Combined Arms Army) are advancing. In the vicinity of Staromayorske, the 14th Separate SOF Brigade is active.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• In the event of losing Berestove and Pishchane, the enemy command will have the option to advance towards Kupyansk-Vuzlovy railway junction from the south or towards Kruglyakivka, where the Oskil River is relatively narrow. There is also a possibility of simultaneous advancement along both directions.
• After failing to encircle Avdiivka, Russian forces are preparing to break through the city. This indicates that the enemy command is gradually returning to a strategy reminiscent of the Bakhmut operation.
• The enemy is completing the creation of favorable conditions for the capture of the Khimik neighborhood in Avdiivka. Its loss would render further defense of the city impractical.
• The entry of the enemy’s 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the Vuhledar area would signify the initiation of the operation aimed at breaching the Vuhledar salient held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.01.24  

Personnel – almost 384,140 people (+960); 

Tanks – 6,300 (+10); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,725 (+29); 

Artillery systems – 9,144 (+31);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 972 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 663 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,191 (+42);

Aircraft – 332 (+1);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,084 (+35);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,846 (0);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).

Humanitarian+general

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 150 towns and villages and 111 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 1 person was killed in Chernihiv Oblast by a bomb dropped from a UAV. 2 people were reported dead, and 9 injured in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolayiv, Donetsk and Kherson Oblasts. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• Russia has launched more than 330 missiles of different types and nearly 600 drones over Ukraine since the beginning of the year, according to President Zelensky.
• On the morning of January 30, the Russian military dropped an explosive device from a drone near the humanitarian headquarters building in Beryslav, Kherson Oblast. A 50-year-old man was injured.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, mandatory evacuation is ongoing from 27 villages in the Kupyansk district, with more than 300 residents having left over the past two weeks.
• Human rights activists have documented 432 cases of torture committed by Russian forces in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine between February 24, 2022, and August 31, 2023. Among them, 128 cases occurred in Kherson Oblast, 119 in Kyiv Oblast, 76 in Kharkiv Oblast, 34 in Zaporizhzhya Oblast, 28 in Chernihiv Oblast, 15 in Sumy Oblast, 12 in Mykolaiv Oblast, 10 in Donetsk Oblast, 6 in Luhansk Oblast, and 4 in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, as reported by Anastasiya Malynka, a manager at the human rights association Freerights.
• During the Russian occupation, the population of temporarily occupied Melitopol in Zaporizhzhya Oblast increased compared to the pre-full-scale invasion period. Before February 24, 2022, the city had 150,000 residents, but more than half of them had left. Approximately 100,000 Russian citizens were brought in to replace them, as reported by the legally elected Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov.
• On January 29th, Russian occupiers employed munitions containing hazardous substances five times. These are likely K-51 grenades with picric acid. However, each such incident is investigated separately.
• Ukraine received 36 out of 100 points in the Corruption Perceptions Index for 2023, ranking 104th out of 180 countries. The country’s improvement by 3 points stands out as one of the best global results over the past year, according to Transparency International Ukraine. Additionally, Ukraine is among the 17 countries this year that achieved their best-ever scores in the Corruption Perceptions Index.

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