Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 31.01.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 7 attacks near Terny and Yampolivka. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 6 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka and Klishchiivka. 

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. Over the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 33 enemy attacks near Avdiivka, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, repelling 16 attacks. 

In the operational zone of the “”Odesa”” OSG on Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their foothold. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 15 unsuccessful assault operations.

The enemy has advanced near Bakhmut and Horlivka, and positional battles have been ongoing along the entire front line.

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces are using chemical weapons against Ukrainian positions on the Tavriya front, launching at least 5 attacks with K-51 grenades containing chloropicrin.
  • Along the administrative border of Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts, the anticipated winter-spring offensive operation by the adversary’s “Center” operational grouping is currently underway.
  • There is no immediate threat of the enemy breaking through to the Oskil River on the Glushkivka-Kruglyakivka section. At the moment, the enemy cannot advance westward from the Tabaivka-Krokhmalne line without securing its flanks, neutralizing the threat posed by the units of the “Khortytsia” OSG in the Stepova Novoselivka – Ivanivka – Kyslivka – Kotlyarivka area, and without expanding the breakthrough area at least to Pishchane and Berestove.
  • 2/3 of daily combat engagements are occurring on the Avdiivka front.
  • The actions of enemy forces north of Avdiivka indicate their military command’s reluctance to launch a direct attack on the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant.
  • South of the Avdiivka defensive area, the enemy continues active offensive operations in the directions of Pisky (Vodyane) – Pervomaiske and Maryinka – Heorhiivka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • 88 combat engagements took place in various sectors.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy is trying to reach the left bank of the Oskil River. The 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division advanced beyond the P-07 road between Tabaivka and Krokhmalne. 
  • The situation north and west of Synkivka remains challenging. Units of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade managed to gain a foothold on the edge of the forest north of Synkivka, from where they are constantly trying to break through to the village or advance beyond it, bypassing it from the west. Left-flank units of the enemy’s 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, supporting the right flank of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, are trying to advance in a southeast direction between the Oskil River and the railway, which runs from the north, from Dvorichna to Kupyansk. The enemy’s command periodically intensifies combat actions south of Vilshana, attempting to stretch the defense front of the “Khortytsia” OSG in this area and disperse its tactical reserves.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army captured the positions of the “Khortytsia” OSG southwest of Bakhmut in the summer cottage area along the T0504 Bakhmut – Ivanivske road. The enemy is trying to seize the initiative in the area of Bohdanivka and Ivanivske, moving closer to the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal west of Klishchiivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy is launching attacks along the entire perimeter of the Avdiivka defense sector and conducting artillery strikes on the rear areas of the “Tavria” OSG grouping in that sector.
  • The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps continues unsuccessfully attacking in the directions of Vesele – the “Ivushka” garden community and from the side of Kamianka and Kruta Balka towards the sand quarry. North of this area, enemy units of the 15th and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 2nd Army are unsuccessfully attempting to advance towards Novobakhmutivka and Berdychi. In the southeastern part of the Avdiivka defense sector, the 1st and 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, the 1487th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops and the 87th Rifle Regiment of the Mobilization Reserve of the 1st AC of the 8th Army, are trying to break through, attacking from Opytne along Soborona, Sportyvna, and Chernyshevsky streets, into the 9th quarter of the city.
  • Berdyansk direction: Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the area of Zolota Nyva.
  • Tokmak direction: positional battles continued near Robotyne, Verbove, and Novoprokopivka.
  • Kherson direction: Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the air defense radar station near the occupied Rozdolne in Crimea
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 6 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 4 cruise missiles;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:  

  • In the area from Novomykhailivka to the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, units of the 155th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet operate. Units of the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army, the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment, the 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army operate to the south of Velyka Novosilka.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • In the event of losing Berestove and Pishchane, the enemy command will have the option to advance towards Kupyansk-Vuzlovy railway junction from the south or towards Kruglyakivka, where the Oskil River is relatively narrow. There is also a possibility of simultaneous advancement along both directions.
  • The 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division will continue active operations towards Pishchane south of Tabaivka. An alternative scenario could involve units of the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade or the 153rd Tank Regiment attempting to flank and attack the rear of the “Khortytsia” OSG units defending along the Kyslivka – Kotlyarivka line, operating along the P-07 road. Additionally, the 1432nd or 1431st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian Territorial Troops could be involved.
  • After failing to encircle Avdiivka, Russian forces are preparing to break through the city. This indicates that the enemy command is gradually returning to a strategy reminiscent of the Bakhmut operation.
  • The enemy is completing the creation of favorable conditions for the capture of the Khimik neighborhood in Avdiivka. Its loss would render further defense of the city impractical.
  • The entry of the enemy’s 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the Vuhledar area would signify the initiation of the operation aimed at breaching the Vuhledar salient held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 31.01.24  

Personnel – almost 385,230 people (+1,080); 

Tanks – 6,310 (+10); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,757 (+32); 

Artillery systems – 9,195 (+51);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 974 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 663 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,231 (+40);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,100 (+16);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,846 (0);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 132 towns and villages and 199 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 2 people were reported dead and 16 injured in different Ukrainian Oblasts. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the night of January 31, Russia launched an attack on Ukraine deploying 20 “Shahed” drones and three “Iskander-M” missiles. Ukrainian air defense successfully intercepted and destroyed 14 “Shahed” drones.
  • In the early hours of January 31, a Russian attack severely damaged an agricultural enterprise in the Bashtanka district of Mykolaiv Oblast. Warehouses, buildings, equipment, and crops were destroyed. Notably, this particular enterprise had recently recovered without any outside help and resumed operations after a prolonged period of occupation.
  • 207 Ukrainian POWs have returned from Russian captivity today, including those intended to be released on January 24. The 65 individuals whom the Russian side claimed to have been killed in the Il-76 crash on January 24 were not included in the exchange. The Ukrainian side doesn’t have confirmation that they have died.
  • Among the liberated Ukrainian POWs were 95 representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 56 National Guard members, 26 border guards, 29 members of the Territorial Defense, and one representative from the National Police.
  • The well-being of the servicemen who have been repatriated differs based on their prior places of detention. Today’s group includes 40 individuals who were wounded and seriously ill, and they were promptly attended to by emergency medical services, stated Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
  • The National Police of Ukraine has brought charges against 2,400 Russian occupiers. Additionally, 22 Russian military personnel have been convicted for shooting at humanitarian and evacuation convoys, rape, and other war crimes.
  • The National Police have documented the death of 9,700 civilians in Ukraine as a result of the full-scale aggression by the Russian Federation; 11 thousand were wounded, and almost 7,000 civilians are missing and unaccounted for.
  • According to the Ministry of Justice, throughout 2023, more than 187,000 children were born in Ukraine. This is 32% less than in 2021, when 273,700 infants were born.

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