Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 01.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks near Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 Russian attacks near Terny, Yampolivka and Torske. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 6 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 19 enemy attacks in the areas of Avdiivka, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy  near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Novomykhailivka, repelling 10 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian Defence Forces repelled an enemy attack south of Zolota Nyva. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 8 Russian attacks north of Pryiutne, west of Verbove and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 3 assault attempts. None of them succeeded.

The adversary has advanced near Bakhmut, Avdiivka and southwest of Donetsk; positional battles are ongoing along the entire frontline.

General conclusion:

  • The main objective of the Russian forces on the Kupyansk direction remains the capture of Kupyansk-Vuzlovy railway junction and Kupyansk. Capturing Synkivka will facilitate the rapid advance of Russian forces toward these goals.
  • Ongoing progress by the adversary in the vicinity of Solodke could pave the way for the encirclement of Novomykhailivka by Russian forces.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 66 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles took place near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Kotlyarivka, Tabaivka, Berestove, Krokhmalne, Terny, Torske, Yampolivka, Dibrova, Kuzmyne, and Bilohorivka. The enemy is concentrating efforts on capturing Tabaivka and Berestove.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces have advanced to the east of Ivanivske. Positional battles continued in the areas of Bohdanivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. The enemy is concentrating efforts on improving its tactical position across the entire direction, achieving success to the east of Bilohorivka, closer to Ivano-Daryivka, where it has advanced by 200 meters.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have made minor progress along Sportyvna Street in the southernmost residential district of Avdiivka, west of Solodke, and northeast of Novomykhailivka. Positional battles persisted near Stepove, Avdiivka Coking Plant, in the southern and southeastern parts of Avdiivka, near Pervomaiske, Nevelske, and Pobieda. In the vicinity of Novomykhailivka, the Russian forces had limited success north of the village, and made some progress in Heorhiivka.
  • In the Solodke area, Russian forces lost up to a company of armored vehicles during assaults, including 2 tanks, 6 MT-LB tracked armored fighting vehicles, and 1 BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle.
  • The “Tavria” OSG managed to somewhat alleviate the situation, which is characterized as consistently difficult.
  • Berdyansk direction: Russian forces advanced up to 500 meters deep on a front of up to 2 km wide north of Pryiutne. Units of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army advanced west of Staromayorske.
  • The  “Tavriya” OSG troops repelled the enemy’s attack north of Pryiutne.
  • Tokmak direction: the “Tavriya” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Robotyne. Units of the Russian 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army are engaged in combat near Novoandriivka.
  • Kherson direction, positional fighting continued near Krynky. The enemy has increased the intensity of assault actions on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, with enemy losses in these actions reaching up to 70%. The adversary is attempting to escalate the use of FPV drones to 70 UAVs per day. Up to half of these UAVs are neutralized by the gunfire from the “Odesa” OSG units and its EW means.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 12 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo was 16 cruise missiles;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo was 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in enemy disposition:

  • On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the 25th CBRN Protection Regiment of the 5th Army is operating.
  • The 337th Air Assault Regiment of the 104th Air Assault Division is engaged in combat near Krynky.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • In the event of losing Berestove and Pishchane, the enemy command will have the option to advance towards Kupyansk-Vuzlovy railway junction from the south or towards Kruglyakivka, where the Oskil River is relatively narrow. There is also a possibility of simultaneous advancement along both directions.
  • The 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division will continue active operations towards Pishchane south of Tabaivka. An alternative scenario could involve units of the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade or the 153rd Tank Regiment attempting to flank and attack the rear of the “Khortytsia” OSG units defending along the Kyslivka – Kotlyarivka line, operating along the P-07 road. Additionally, the 1432nd or 1431st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian Territorial Troops could be involved.
  • After failing to encircle Avdiivka, Russian forces are preparing to break through the city. This indicates that the enemy command is gradually returning to a strategy reminiscent of the Bakhmut operation.
  • The enemy is completing the creation of favorable conditions for the capture of the Khimik neighborhood in Avdiivka. Its loss would render further defense of the city impractical.
  • The entry of the enemy’s 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the Vuhledar area would signify the initiation of the operation aimed at breaching the Vuhledar salient held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.02.24 

Personnel – almost 386,230 people (+1000);

Tanks – 6,322 (+12);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,773 (+16);

Artillery systems – 9,228 (+33);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 976 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 663 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,267 (+36);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,136 (+36);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,847 (+1);

Boats/ships – 24 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 157 towns and villages and 136 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 1 person was reported dead and 8 injured in different Donetsk and Kherson Oblasts. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On February 31 the enemy targeted the central district hospital with two UAVs in Velykyi Burluk in the Kupyansk district. The attack resulted in damage to the facade, roof, and windows, causing the building to catch fire. Thirty-eight people, including five hospital staff members, were evacuated.
  • The Russian military attacked an ambulance brigade in the Beryslav district of Kherson Oblast with a drone. The attack targeted medical personnel returning from a call. While the vehicle suffered damage, the medical team remained unharmed.
  • Near the village of Yevhenivka in Mykolaiv Oblast, four people were injured in a mine explosion. The local authorities issued an urgent call for blood donations. One person later died.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent