Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 02.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, theUkrainian Defence Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks near Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled a Russian attack near Terny and on the Bakhmut direction, they repelled an enemy attack near Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 16 enemy attacks in the areas of Avdiivka and 6 attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Novomykhailivka, repelling 11 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, they repelled the enemy attack south of Zolota Nyva and on the Zaporizhzhia direction – in the area of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 14 unsuccessful assault attempts.

The adversary has advanced near Kupyansk, Avdiivka and Donetsk; positional battles are ongoing along the entire frontline.

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces need to improve their planning and coordination at the tactical and operational levels to break out of the current positional warfare in Ukraine.
  • Russian forces maintain their tactics on the Avdiivka direction, continuing persistent infantry assaults in that area.
  • The enemy command is making efforts to eliminate the Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, aiming to gain control of the Novomykhailivka area in the near future and create conditions for further advance towards Kostiantynivka and Paraskoviivka.
  • The Shakhtarsk direction (Vuhledar bulge) is the direction of another Russian attack with a focus on capturing Avdiivka. This statement is supported by the fact that the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 163rd Tank Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, which were previously engaged in combat in Maryinka, and the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps are not advancing toward Pobeda or Novomykhailivka, but in the directions of Maryinka – Heorhiivka and Maryinka – Krasnohorivka.
  • The loss of the “Ivanovets” missile boat significantly reduced the capabilities of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy for conducting anti-ship warfare.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 63 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have advanced to the section of the P07 highway Kupyansk-Svatove, east of Tabaivka, near Synkivka, and west of Tabaivka, entering Ivanivka. Positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Synkivka, Lake Lyman, Ivanivka, Berestove, Krokhmalne, and Tabaivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, intense combat is taking place in the Serebryansk Forest, in the areas of Bilohorivka, Terny, and Yampolivka, where the enemy has advanced 300 meters in the past few days. The enemy has engaged in battles on the outskirts of Makiivka. Positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Torske and Dibrova.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, fighting continued in the areas of Klishchiivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Vesele, and Spirne.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have made slight progress in the areas of summer houses on the northern outskirts of Avdiivka. Positional battles have been ongoing near Stepove, Avdiivka Coking Plant, the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant, Severne, Opytne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
  • On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy has advanced north of Novomykhailivka by approximately 100-150 meters and is attempting to consolidate its position. Russian forces recently made slight advance to the northeast of Hryhorivka. Positional battles are ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Hryhorivka, and Pobieda.
  • On the Maryinka – Pobeda direction:
    • The 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army is advancing along the O0532 road with the task of capturing Pobieda village and further in a southwest direction to reach the bank of the Sukhi Yaly River near Kostiantynivka.
    • The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division, in coordination with units of the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet, is advancing in the direction of Oleksandrivka – Novomykhailivka and Luhanske – Novomykhailivka with the task of reaching the eastern and northeast outskirts of Novomykhailivka.
    • The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps, reinforced by the 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops, is advancing in the directions of Syhnalne – Novomykhailivka and Stepne – Novomykhailivka.
  • Overall, the enemy grouping on the Vuhledar bulge consists of 5 brigades/regiments, with the 1135th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops and 2 battalions in reserve. The enemy artillery grouping in this area includes a tactical artillery group from the 18th Machine Gun – Artillery Division of the 68th Army Corps (2S5 and 2A36) and the 312th Reactive Artillery Division (BM-21 Grad).
  • Berdyansk direction: the  “Tavriya” OSG troops recently advanced to the southwest of Staromayorske. Positional battles continued near Zolota Nyva, Staromayorske, Urozhaine, and Pryiutne. Enemy infantry groups are launching attacks with the support of armored vehicles and tanks to the north of Pryiutne.
  • Tokmak direction: the “Tavriya” OSG forces have captured the wooded area northwest of Verbove. Positional battles continued near Verbove, Robotyne, and Novoprokopivka.
  • Kherson direction, positional battles continued near Krynky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 2 ships;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
  • A unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, using marine unmanned platforms, struck a missile boat “Ivanovets” of the “Tarantul” type from the 41st brigade of missile boats near Lake Donuzlav in the occupied Crimea. The boat sank. The 41st brigade had previously lost a small missile ship of the 1239 “Bora” project, which was seriously damaged.

Changes in enemy disposition:

  • The 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment, formed during the partial mobilization in the Russian Federation in the fall of 2022, is engaged in combat near Kreminna.
  • Units of the “Sever-V” Volunteer Brigade” are operating in the area of Bohdanivka-Chasiv Yar, and the special forces unit “Brodiaga” (Tramp) is active near Klishchiivka.
  • The 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army of the Russian Central Military District is operating near Avdiivka.
  • The 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Military District and the 14th Separate SOF Brigade are active near Staromayorske.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • In the event of losing Berestove and Pishchane, the enemy command will have the option to advance towards Kupyansk-Vuzlovy railway junction from the south or towards Kruglyakivka, where the Oskil River is relatively narrow. There is also a possibility of simultaneous advancement along both directions.
  • The 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division will continue active operations towards Pishchane south of Tabaivka. An alternative scenario could involve units of the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade or the 153rd Tank Regiment attempting to flank and attack the rear of the “Khortytsia” OSG units defending along the Kyslivka – Kotlyarivka line, operating along the P-07 road. Additionally, the 1432nd or 1431st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian Territorial Troops could be involved.
  • After failing to encircle Avdiivka, Russian forces are preparing to break through the city. This indicates that the enemy command is gradually returning to a strategy reminiscent of the Bakhmut operation.
  • The enemy is completing the formation of favorable conditions for the capture of the Khimik neighborhood in Avdiivka. Its loss would render further defense of the city impractical.
  • The concentration and deployment of additional enemy units and formations in the area northwest of Volnovakha (e.g. the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from near Bakhmut) will mark the beginning of a change in the direction of the advance for the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, which will deploy its front to the south.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.02.24 

Personnel – almost 387,060 people (+830);

Tanks – 6,331 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,792 (+19);

Artillery systems – 9,274 (+46);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 978 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 663 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,316 (+49);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,146 (+10);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,847 (+1);

Boats/ships – 25 (+1).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 146 towns and villages and 107 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the night, Russian occupiers launched another attack, employing 24 UAVs of the “Shahed-136/131” type. Ukrainian air defense forces successfully destroyed 11 enemy drones. The strike targeted critical infrastructure objects in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • At night, the Russian forces targeted critical infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, resulting in power outages for approximately 100,000 customers. Due to the power outage, over 100 workers were trapped underground in two mines. Around 10 AM, all of them were safely brought to the surface.
  • Four children under the age of 16 have been repatriated from the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts. The youngest among them is less than a year old. The ongoing 15th rescue mission has brought back a total of 235 children from the occupied territories and Russia, according to Save Ukraine, the organization that works on repatriation.
  • The Security Service has identified four additional Russian occupiers responsible for war crimes against the civilian population during the occupation of the Kyiv region. They are:
    • Major Aleksandr Vasilyev, assistant commander of the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces.
    • Major Aleksey Bulgakov, commander of a Motorized Rifle Company in the same military unit of the Russian Federation.
    • Second Lieutenant Georgiy Radnatarov, commander of a Reconnaissance Platoon in the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.
    • Private Dugar Shozhoev, a serviceman of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade.
  • During the past week, more than a hundred people were evacuated from the occupied outskirts of Avdiivka. Residents reported instances of cruelty by the occupiers towards the local population. Upon entering their street, the Russians compelled residents into a small basement. Thirteen people, including an elderly woman in need of care, were confined in the basement for an extended period, with no permission to go outside or use the toilet. Furthermore, the occupants confiscated their phones.

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