Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 03.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 5 attacks near Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka and Klishchiivka. 

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. Over the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 29 enemy attacks near Avdiivka and 15 attacks near Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 7 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled an enemy attack south of Zolota Nyva. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 3 enemy attacks in the area of Robotyne and west of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 7 unsuccessful assault attempts.

The enemy has advanced near Avdiivka and on the Shakhtarsk direction, and positional battles continued along the entire front line.

General conclusion:

  • Russian authorities are engaging in an information campaign attempting to lower expectations regarding the capability of Russian forces to achieve significant operational successes, particularly in the Avdiivka region.
  • The shortage of ammunition limits the Ukrainian Defence Forces’ capabilities in counter-battery warfare.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have concentrated 40,000 personnel, 500 tanks, 650 BMPs, 430 artillery systems, and over 150 MLRS. The numerical strength of the enemy grouping on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions reaches 57,000 individuals.
  • Russian forces are increasingly using ballistic missiles in their strikes on Ukraine, as the Defense Forces have limited capabilities to intercept ballistic missiles. Russia will intensify efforts to acquire ballistic missiles from abroad.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 77 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles persisted near Ivanivka, Tabaivka, and Krokhmalne. The enemy is pressing near Berestove, achieving limited success. Intense battles continued in the Synkivka area, where the line of contact changes several times a day.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced approximately 100 meters toward Terny and Yampolivka in recent days. Positional battles took place west of Kreminna. In the Makiyivka area, battles are ongoing on the outskirts of the town, with the enemy advancing up to 100 meters.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles occurred in the areas of Bilohorivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka. Units of the “Khortytsia” OSG are holding against intense pressure from the enemy in the Ivanivske area but are sustaining significant losses.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces advanced up to 100 meters in the residential area south of Avdiivka, northeast of Avdiivka, up to 1.25 km in the area of the sand quarry, in the 9th quarter of the city, east of Opytne, and up to 200 meters in the Pervomaiske area. Positional battles took place near Stepove, near Avdiivka Coking Plant, on the southern outskirts of Avdiivka, near Nevelske.
  • On the Shakhtarsk direction, positional battles occurred near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Novomykhailivka, where the enemy advanced by 300 meters. Enemy attacks south of Novomykhailivka and towards Krasnohorivka were unsuccessful.
  • Berdiansk direction: Russian forces advanced up to 2 km north of Pryiutne. Positional battles took place near Staromayorske and Zolota Nyva.
  • Tokmak direction: Positional battles continued near Robotyne, Verbove, and Novofedorivka. UAVs of the “Tavria” OSG near Robotyne created significant problems for Russian forces in this area.
  • Kherson direction: Units of the 104th Air Assault Division of the Russian Armed Forces continue to operate near Krynky. Russian forces are losing up to 70% of personnel in each assault group on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River but can easily replenish units by shifting personnel from the rear to the front.
  • The missile strike carried out by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on January 31 on the Belbek airbase in occupied Sevastopol damaged at least 3 aircraft.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 2 ships;
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:  

  • The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is forming air defense units within the airborne assault forces to protect troops from UAV and aviation strikes. It is planned to equip these units with short-range anti-aircraft complexes “Tor-M2” and “Gibka.” The deployment of new air defense units within the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation is planned. This task was not completed in 2023.
  • Near Rozdolivka and Vasyukivka, the 137th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division is operating, and near Bohdanivka, there are the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Russian Northern Fleet and the 68th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • In the event of losing Berestove and Pishchane, the enemy command will have the option to advance towards Kupyansk-Vuzlovy railway junction from the south or towards Kruglyakivka, where the Oskil River is relatively narrow. There is also a possibility of simultaneous advancement along both directions.
  • The 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division will continue active operations towards Pishchane south of Tabaivka. An alternative scenario could involve units of the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade or the 153rd Tank Regiment attempting to flank and attack the rear of the “Khortytsia” OSG units defending along the Kyslivka – Kotlyarivka line, operating along the P-07 road. Additionally, the 1432nd or 1431st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian Territorial Troops could be involved.
  • After failing to encircle Avdiivka, Russian forces are preparing to break through the city. This indicates that the enemy command is gradually returning to a strategy reminiscent of the Bakhmut operation.
  • The enemy is completing the formation of favorable conditions for the capture of the Khimik neighborhood in Avdiivka. Its loss would render further defense of the city impractical.
  • The concentration and deployment of additional enemy units and formations northwest of Volnovakha (e.g. the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from near Bakhmut) will mark the beginning of a change in the direction of the advance for the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, which will deploy its front to the south.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.02.24  

Personnel – almost 387,940 people (+880); 

Tanks – 6,341 (+10); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,805 (+13); 

Artillery systems – 9,300 (+26);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 979 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 663 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,352 (+36);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,161 (+15);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,847 (0);

Boats/ships – 25 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 130 towns and villages and 58 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Two people were injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, one person was injured in Donetsk Oblast, seven people, including a child, were injured in different towns and cities of Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • As of the morning of February 3, 2024, according to official information from juvenile prosecutors, 522 children have lost their lives, and over 1,217 have sustained injuries of varying severity due to the full scale Russian aggression of Ukraine. 
  • During the night of February 3, 2024, the enemy launched an assault with 14 “Shahed-136/131” UAVs. Similarly to the prior night, a considerable number of the drones targeted the energy infrastructure of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Nine UAVs were downed by mobile strike groups from the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
  • Following the Russian UAV attack on energy infrastructure, the energy authorities in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, implemented schedules for emergency power outages using the algorithm that was employed during blackouts last year. By 4pm consequences of the morning attack were liquidated.  
  • On the evening of February 2, Russian forces damaged a grain storage facility in Poltava Oblast. A portion of the stored harvest was lost as a result.
  • In Sumy Oblast, to prevent harm and injuries to the population, the movement of vehicles has been prohibited on road sections within a 5-kilometer zone from the state border of Ukraine. 
  • Russian occupation authorities have approved a new government program, which involves the mass relocation of residents from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus to the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the legally elected mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, said. According to Fedorov, in this way, the occupiers aim to address several issues: suppress the ongoing resistance and alleviate the severe personnel shortage.

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