Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 05.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks near Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 3 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 44 enemy attacks in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke, Severne, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy near Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 14 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attacks north of Pryiutne and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 3 unsuccessful assault attempts on the positions of Ukrainian troops.

General conclusion:

  • The adversary is trying to eliminate the Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces not by direct flanking operations, but rather by squeezing the  “Tavria” OSG forces from it. This is evident by the unsuccessful attempt of the Russian 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade to break through to Vodyane along the Stepne-Vodyane road from the side of Solodke, as well as persistent enemy attempts to displace the “Tavria” OSG forces from Novomykhailivka from the south and east.
  • Over the past six months, the Russian command consistently abstains from employing bilateral encirclement maneuvers, opting instead for encirclement from a singular direction each time.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 78 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, having advanced to Tabaivka, the adversary conducted a local regrouping of its forces and assets in this area. They deployed the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 1st Tank Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division (1st Tank Army) into its first echelon. Their task is to break through the “Khortytsia” OSG defense in the direction of Tabaivka – Stepova Novoselivka, make maximum progress along the P07 highway in the northwest direction, cut off the “Khortytsia” OSG units defending east of this road along the Kyslivka – Kotlyarivka line, and form conditions for the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Ivanivka area. So far, the enemy’s 26th Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division (1st Tank Army) has been unsuccessful in breaking through the “Khortytsia” OSG defense north of Tabaivka and advancing to Stepova Novoselivka from the south. The 12th Tank Regiment of the 4th Tank Division (1st Tank Army) also failed to break through from the east into the Ivanivka area by attacking from the east.
  • On the Lyman direction, The adversary is achieving tactical successes in the Serebryansk Forest and in the direction of Terny.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces recently made a slight advance north of Klishchiivka, near Bohdanivka, and captured positions north of Klishchiivka. Positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Fedorivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Pivdenne.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have recently advanced along the H20 highway east of Avdiivka, in the area of the Avdiivka Coking Plant on the northwestern outskirts of Avdiivka. Positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, the Avdiivka Coking Plant, the “Tsarska Okhota” restaurant, Tonenke, Severne, Opytne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
  • Battles for the sand quarry has begun, with the enemy consolidating its position on a cascade of ponds south of the purification facilities.
  • On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy is preparing to shift its main efforts north of Novomykhailivka along the Oleksandrivka – Novomykhailivka and Maryinka – Pobieda directions. The 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army, reinforced by the 40th and 155th Separate Marines Brigades of the Russian Pacific Fleet, is the main striking echelon of the enemy grouping in this direction. To deliver the strike, the adversary has formed and fully equipped assault units from the 40th and 155th Separate Marines Brigades, the 33rd and 255th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division. In the sector of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division’s advance, a substitution of Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian Territorial Troops was conducted, and the 1219th and 1465th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Territorial Troops were introduced into the battle.
  • Berdyansk direction: positional battles took place near Zolota Nyva and Pryiutne.
  • Tokmak direction: positional battles continued near Robotyne and Verbove.
  • Kherson direction, Russian forces launching airstrikes at Krynky with glide bombs.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition: not detected.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • The enemy command is preparing to attack the flank and rear of the “Khortytsia” OSG units defending in the Kotlyarivka area.
  • In the event of losing Berestove and Pishchane, the enemy command will have the option to advance towards Kupyansk-Vuzlovy railway junction from the south or towards Kruglyakivka, where the Oskil River is relatively narrow. There is also a possibility of simultaneous advancement along both directions.
  • The 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division will continue active operations towards Pishchane south of Tabaivka. An alternative scenario could involve units of the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade or the 153rd Tank Regiment attempting to flank and attack the rear of the “Khortytsia” OSG units defending along the Kyslivka – Kotlyarivka line, operating along the P-07 road. The 1432nd or 1431st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian Territorial Troops could also be involved.
  • After failing to encircle Avdiivka, Russian forces are preparing to break through the city. This indicates that the enemy command is gradually returning to a strategy reminiscent of the Bakhmut operation.
  • The enemy is completing the formation of favorable conditions for capturing the Khimik neighborhood in Avdiivka. Its loss would render further defense of the city impractical.
  • The concentration and deployment of additional enemy units and formations northwest of Volnovakha (e.g. the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from near Bakhmut) will mark the beginning of a change in the direction of the advance for the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, which will deploy its front to the south.
  • The Russian command is gradually reinforcing its formation in the northern and central parts of the Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, given that the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps, reinforced by the 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops, continues its operations in the directions of Syhnalne–Novomykhailivka and Stepne–Novomykhailivka.
  • The adversary will reinforce its grouping in the Novomykhailivka area with the 103rd and 163rd Tank Regiments of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army or the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps.
  • The command of the enemy’s “Dnieper” operational grouping in the Krynky area will attempt to completely prevent any advance of the “Odesa” OSG forces towards Kozachi Lagery, Oleshky Pisky, and especially toward the T2206 road. The enemy will seek to create favorable conditions for delivering a decisive strike to completely eliminate this foothold.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.02.24 

Personnel – almost 389,560 people (+810);

Tanks – 6,348 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,822 (+4);

Artillery systems – 9,349 (+18);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 979 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 664 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,412 (+19);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,173 (0);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,848 (0);

Boats/ships – 25 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 110 towns and villages and 121 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. One person is reported dead and four wounded in Donetsk Oblast and one person was reported wounded in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Last week (January 29 – February 4), the intensity of Russian shelling increased by 24%. The enemy attacked Ukraine over 1,500 times. Attacks on over 570 towns and villages were recorded, with the highest number in Zaporizhzhya Oblast. 12 civilians were killed, and 60 were injured.
  • Girls aged 15 and 16 have successfully returned to the territory controlled by Ukraine from the temporarily occupied part of Kherson Oblast. This was made possible due to cooperation between their families and Save Ukraine.
  • As of now, the “Diya” app has documented 597,993 reports concerning homes that have been either damaged or destroyed.
  • In the areas of Kherson Oblast recently liberated from Russian occupiers, almost 5,000 hectares, mainly comprising fields, have been cleared of mines within a week. Sapper teams successfully identified and rendered safe 1,200 explosive devices.
  • Approximately 26% of Ukraine’s territory remains occupied by Russia, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

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