Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 06.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 attacks near Synkivka, where the enemy attempted to break through their defense. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 Russian attacks near Bilohorivka and Yampolivka, Terny, Torske, Hryhorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 10 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 45 enemy attacks in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, south of Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy near Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 26 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 Russian attacks in the area of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 3 unsuccessful assault attempts.

General conclusion:

  • Over the past week, Russian forces have increased the intensity of artillery shellings by 25% and have shelled Ukrainian territory over 1,500 times, hitting more than 570 towns and villages.
  • Defense Forces in critical frontline sectors, such as Avdiivka, suffer from a lack of artillery shells. Consequently, they concentrate on group targets, prompting the enemy to adopt tactical shift, launching attacks in small groups.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces have comparatively superior counter-battery capabilities compared to Russian forces, which include the AN/TPQ-36, -48, -50 radar systems, as well as the German COBRA radar systems.
  • The shortage of artillery shells for the Defense Forces is likely to persist, limiting their ability to conduct counter-battery warfare.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 126 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have made slight progress in northern Synkivka and east of Yampolivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, the enemy has achieved success near Terny and Bilohorivka, with positional battles ongoing near Torske, Yampolivka, and Hryhorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces recently advanced north of Vesele. Positional combat operations were ongoing near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and in the direction of Ivanivske. The enemy made minor gains between Khromove and Bohdanivka. The “Khortytsia” OSG units continue successful assault operations in the Klishchiivka area.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, positional battles continued in the area of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Tonenke, Severne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
  • The “Tavria” OSG forces managed to stabilize the southern flank. However, the enemy breached the defense of Ukrainian units to the west of the sand quarry near the residential sector.
  • On the Shakhtarsk direction, positional combat operations continued in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, and Heorhiivka. The enemy advanced north of Novomykhailivka. In the area of Krasnohorivka, the “Tavria” OSG forces are counterattacking.
  • Berdyansk direction: positional battles took place near Zolota Nyva and Pryiutne.
  • Tokmak direction: Russian forces have advanced southeast of Robotyne. The “Tavria” OSG forces repelled 4 Russian assaults near Robotyne.
  • Kherson direction, positional battles continue on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast. The “Odesa” OSG forces employ mobile EW systems during the Dnipro River crossing. Russian EW systems are ineffective against Ukrainian FPV drones in this area.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Russian Northern Fleet and the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps are engaged in combat operations near Bakhmut and Klishchiivka.
  • The 1st and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 1st Army Corps are engaged in combat operations near Avdiivka and Nevelske.
  • The 1466th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops is engaged in combat operations near Staromayorske. Ka-52 helicopters of the 11th Army of the Russian Air Forces and the Air Defense Forces conduct strikes in the direction of Malynivka.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy command is preparing to attack the flank and rear of the “Khortytsia” OSG units defending in the Kotlyarivka area.
  • The 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division will continue active operations towards Pishchane south of Tabaivka. An alternative scenario could involve units of the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade or the 153rd Tank Regiment attempting to flank and attack the rear of the “Khortytsia” OSG units defending along the Kyslivka – Kotlyarivka line, operating along the P-07 road. The 1432nd or 1431st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian Territorial Troops could also be involved.
  • After failing to encircle Avdiivka, Russian forces are preparing to break through the city. This indicates that the enemy command is gradually returning to a strategy reminiscent of the Bakhmut operation.
  • The enemy is completing the formation of favorable conditions for capturing the Khimik neighborhood in Avdiivka. Its loss would render further defense of the city impractical.
  • The concentration and deployment of additional enemy units and formations northwest of Volnovakha (e.g. the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from near Bakhmut) will mark the beginning of a change in the direction of the advance for the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, which will deploy its front to the south.
  • The Russian command is gradually reinforcing its formation in the northern and central parts of the Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, given that the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps, reinforced by the 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops, continues its operations in the directions of Syhnalne–Novomykhailivka and Stepne–Novomykhailivka.
  • The adversary will reinforce its grouping in the Novomykhailivka area with the 103rd and 163rd Tank Regiments of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army or the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps.
  • The command of the enemy’s “Dnieper” operational grouping in the Krynky area will attempt to completely prevent any advance of the “Odesa” OSG forces towards Kozachi Lagery, Oleshky Pisky, and especially toward the T2206 road. The enemy will seek to create favorable conditions for delivering a decisive strike to completely eliminate this foothold.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.02.24 

Personnel – almost 390,580 people (+1020);

Tanks – 6,365 (+17);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,857 (+35);

Artillery systems – 9,367 (+18);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 979 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 665 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,453 (+41);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,173 (0);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,848 (0);

Boats/ships – 25 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 115 towns and villages and 73 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • As of the morning of February 6, 2024, according to official information from juvenile prosecutors, 523 children have lost their lives, and over 1,217 have been injured to varying degrees of severity due to the full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine.
  • On Monday, January 5th, border communities in Sumy Oblast were shelled by Russian forces 51 times, resulting in a total of 289 explosions. The attacks led to the death of one person and injuries to 8 others.
  • During the past day, the enemy shelled Kherson Oblast 16 times. Five people lost their lives, and one person was injured.
  • In Zolochiv, Bohodukhiv district of Kharkiv Oblast, Russian S-300 missile strikes killed a two-month-old boy and injured three women, including his mother.
  • Three families with 4 underage children from the occupied territory have successfully returned to Ukraine, the charity organization Save Ukraine reported. The parents of the children lost their businesses because they refused to obtain Russian passports and pay taxes to Russia. They were also subjected to constant intimidation and pressure.
  • As a result of full-scale Russian aggression, 1,938 cultural infrastructure sites in Ukraine have been damaged or destroyed.
  • According to Rafael Grossi, the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, located in the occupied territory, operates with only half of the necessary personnel. Additionally, the station is nearing the end of the operational life of its nuclear fuel. “We are talking about highly skilled and licensed personnel. They cannot simply be replaced,” noted Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko.

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