Russia’s war on Ukraine. 07.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 21 enemy attacks near Bilohorivka, Terny and Hryhorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 12 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka and Klishchiivka. 

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. Over the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 29 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Heorhiivka, Pobeda and Novomykhailivka, repelling 20 attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled an enemy attack south of Zolota Nyva. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 4 enemy attacks near Robotyne and west of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 2 unsuccessful assault attempts. 

General conclusion:

• The situation in the Avdiivka area is very complicated; Russian forces are attempting to capture the city for political and informational purposes ahead of the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.
• The Ukrainian defense is positioned near Heorhiivka, leveraging the lowlands and deploying intense artillery fire from the “Tavria” OSG. This setup poses significant challenges for any potential enemy advances through Heorhiivka in the direction of Kurakhove.
• The adversary’s command has assessed that the critical element for capturing Avdiivka involves securing control over the segment of the O0542 road connecting Avdiivka and Lastochkine, which would effectively disrupt the primary logistical route of the “Tavria” OSG garrison within the Avdiivka defense perimeter.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• 92 combat engagements took place in various sectors.
• On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles continued in the vicinity of Synkivka and Tabaivka.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian troops advanced east of Terny and Yampolivka. Positional fighting continued in the areas of Terny, Torske, Yampolivka, Serebryansk forestry, Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy has significantly increased its efforts and is actively storming the positions of the “Khortytsia” OSG near Ivanivske; the situation is difficult. Units of the enemy’s 106th Airborne Division captured Vesele. Russian forces slightly advanced towards Bohdanivka and Ivanivske. Positional battles took place near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and in the area of Klishchiivka.
• On the Avdiivka direction, the situation is extremely challenging. Units of the “Tavria” OSG regained several positions in the residential area in the south of Avdiivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces are engaged in battles with small enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups within Avdiivka; no large-scale urban fighting is taking place in the city.
• Russian forces advanced into the northern part of Avdiivka along Sapronov and Lesia Ukrainka streets and in the area of the quarry on the northern outskirts of Avdiivka. The enemy advanced to a depth of 1 km in the direction of Pervomaiske and reached the southeast outskirts of the town.
• Positional battles took place in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, near Avdiivka itself, Vesele, Pervomaiske, Tonenke, Stepove, and Nevelske.
• The enemy’s command has concluded the preparatory phase for breaching the defenses of the Ukrainian “Tavria” OSG in the vicinity of the Avdiivka Coking Plant, with the subsequent objective of advancing towards the logistical routes of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. They have transitioned into the active execution phase: the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps attacks towards Vesele – “Ivushka” gardening community; in coordination with the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade they attack on the Kamianka – sand quarry axis, and with their right flank – in the direction of height 204.6 – railroad crossing southeast of Avdiivka Coking Plant.
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, Russian forces advanced to the southwest of Donetsk, progressed to the east and south of Novomykhailivka, and reached the eastern outskirts of Novomykhailivka. Positional battles took place in the areas of Peremoha, Heorhiivka, and Novomykhailivka.
• On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles occurred near Urozhaine and Staromayorske. The presence of minefields and UAVs employed by the Ukrainian Defense Forces posed obstacles to the movement of enemy armored vehicles. Consequently, the adversary resorted to infantry-based attacks, reinforced by artillery support and UAV operations.
• Tokmak direction: Positional battles took place near Robotyne and west of Verbove.
• Kherson direction: Prolonged positional battles continued on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast in the Krynky area. The adversary focused on detecting and eliminating FPV UAV operators of the “Odesa” OSG.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy’s naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalib” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
• Ukrainian Special Operations Forces attacked an oil extraction platform in the Black Sea, a facility exploited by Russian occupiers for the Mohajer-6 UAVs attacks and to direct strikes with the Shahed UAVs. Furthermore, the Neva-B object detection radar situated on the platform, enabling Russian forces to surveil the northwestern region of the Black Sea, has been successfully neutralized.

Change in enemy disposition:  

• The 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Combined Arms Army is advancing near Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast.
• Near Bakhmut, the 58th Separate Special Purpose Battalion of the 1st Army Corps is in action. The 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps is operating near Klishchiivka.
• The 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army of the Russian Central Military District is advancing near Avdiivka.
• The adversary’s command has deployed the 116th Separate Special Purpose Brigade of the Russian National Guard as part of its “Belgorod” Operational Group (toward Graivoron and Shebekino). With the forces of the 45th Separate Engineer Sapper Brigade, 25 strongpoints have been equipped for the 116th Separate Operational Purpose Brigade. The operational significance of deploying a brigade formed in Donetsk Oblast as part of the “Belgorod” Operational Group remains unclear.

Escalation indicators: 

• With its forward units, the adversary has entered the northern part of the “Ivushka” orchard in the area of the Railway Lane in Avdiivka. There are indications that it will imminently attempt to breach towards the overpass across the railway in the area of Chystiakov Street, thereby cutting through the entire defense system of the “Tavria” OSG in the northern part of Avdiivka. Additionally, there is a possibility that concurrent with this move, the adversary will initiate massed attacks towards the Fire and Rescue Unit No. 13 in Avdiivka from the north-eastern direction.

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• The 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division will continue active operations towards Pishchane south of Tabaivka. An alternative scenario could involve units of the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade or the 153rd Tank Regiment attempting to flank and attack the rear of the “Khortytsia” OSG units defending along the Kyslivka – Kotlyarivka line, operating along the P-07 road. The 1432nd or 1431st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian Territorial Troops could also be involved.
• The adversary will attempt to cut off the O0542 road on the section from Avdiivka to Lastochkyne, bypassing the Avdiivka Coking Plant from the east and southeast through the “Ivushka” gardening community.
• The breach in the defense of the “Tavria” OSG and the subsequent advance of the enemy’s forward units from the eastern and southeastern sectors of the Avdiivka Coking Plant territory, reaching the line of the “Brevno” restaurant – Avdiivka vehicle station – “Ivushka” gardening community – western edge of the sand quarry, would mark the culmination of organized and cohesive defense of Avdiivka. The enemy is sufficiently close to achieving this objective.
• The concentration and deployment of additional enemy units and formations northwest of Volnovakha (e.g. the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from near Bakhmut) will mark the beginning of a change in the direction of the advance for the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, which will deploy its front to the south.
• The Russian command is gradually reinforcing its formation in the northern and central parts of the Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, given that the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps, reinforced by the 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops, continues its operations in the directions of Syhnalne–Novomykhailivka and Stepne–Novomykhailivka.
• The adversary will reinforce its grouping in the Novomykhailivka area with the 103rd and 163rd Tank Regiments of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army or the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps.
• The command of the enemy’s “Dnieper” operational grouping in the Krynky area will attempt to completely prevent any advance of the “Odesa” OSG forces towards Kozachi Lagery, Oleshky Pisky, and especially toward the T2206 road. The enemy will seek to create favorable conditions for delivering a decisive strike to eliminate this foothold completely.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.02.24  

Personnel – almost 391,470 people (+890); 

Tanks – 6,372 (+7); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,879 (+22); 

Artillery systems – 9,387 (+20);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 980 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 665 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,486 (+33);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 324 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,177 (+4);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,849 (+1);

Boats/ships – 25 (0).

Humanitarian+general

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 120 towns and villages and 154 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• In the early hours of Wednesday, February 7, Russia launched 44 missiles of various types and 20 kamikaze drones at Ukraine. The Ukrainian air defense destroyed 44 enemy targets.
• As a result of a rocket strike on Kyiv on the morning of February 7, at least 4 people were killed, and 40 were injured. Several floors of an 18-story residential building in the Holosiyiv district were damaged due to the attack. In the Dniprovsky district, fragments from the downed missile damaged two high-voltage power lines and a heat supply main, leaving 355 residential buildings without heating
• The Russian early morning rocket strike did not cause critical disruptions to the stable functioning of the energy system. However, there was damage to power grids in Kyiv and Kharkiv. “Ukrenergo” reported that 19,400 consumers in Kyiv and about 1,000 in Kharkiv were left without electricity.
• The missile strikes carried out by Russian forces on Kharkiv utilized S-300 surface-to-air missile systems. Initial reports indicate that five S-300 missiles struck their targets, resulting in damage to civilian enterprises. Three individuals, one woman, and two men, sustained injuries during the attacks, all of whom are employees of the affected enterprises.
• In Drohobych, Lviv Oblast, a rocket damaged an industrial facility. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a critical infrastructure object was hit. In Mykolaiv, as a result of the Russian missile attack, one person was killed, several others were injured, and residential buildings, as well as water and gas pipelines, were damaged.
• According to a January 2024 survey conducted by the Razumkov Center, the Armed Forces of Ukraine emerged as the most trusted institution among Ukrainians, with 95% expressing confidence in them. Other institutions enjoying significant trust include volunteer battalions (85%), the State Emergency Service (82%), the National Guard (81%), volunteer organizations (78%), the State Border Guard Service (77%), the Ministry of Defense (69%), the Security Service of Ukraine (68%), the President (64%), the Church (61%), the National Police (58%), civil society organizations (55%), and the National Bank (53%).

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