Russia’s war on Ukraine. 08.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled three enemy attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka, where the enemy tried to break through the Ukrainian defense. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 enemy attacks near Bilohorivka, Terny and Torske. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 8 enemy attacks near Ivanivske and Klishchiivka. The enemy used two Kn-23 Hwasong-11 ballistic missiles provided by the North Korea in a missile attack on Kharkiv.

In the OSG “Tavriya” operational zone on the Avdiivka direction,  Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. Over the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 40 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobeda and Novomykhailivka, repelling 22 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 2 enemy attacks near Robotyne and west of Verbove.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 4 unsuccessful assault attempts. 

General conclusion:

• The atypical trajectory of one missile during the missile attack on Kyiv allows for its preliminary identification as a Zm22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missile launched from a universal vertical launch container. No sound barrier breaking was observed.
• Russian forces may initiate tactical diversionary transborder raids into Kharkiv Oblast from the Belgorod Oblast of Russia to divert Ukrainian forces from the Kupyansk and Lyman directions.
• Russian forces are unlikely to conduct large-scale offensive operations into the Kharkiv Oblast from the Belgorod Oblast.
• Russian forces intend to reach the Oskil River on the Kupyansk direction and capture Lyman west of Kreminna.
• The Russian command still has up to 7 A-50 aircraft. At the Taganrog airbase, the Russian command is expediting the modernization process of another A-50 to the A-50U level. The aircraft conducted several test flights towards the Caspian Sea at the end of January – beginning of February.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There have been 92 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, intense battles continue near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Tabaivka, and Berestove.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy is launching a massive assault on Terny. Positional battles are taking place near Terny, Torske, Hryhorivka, and Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled enemy attacks from the east and southeast of Ivanivske, where the enemy is trying to regain lost positions. In the Bohdanivka area, the enemy managed to regain several positions and advance slightly. The enemy is increasing efforts in the Klishchiivka area but cannot achieve success. Near Vesele, the forces of “Khortytsia” OSG held their positions. Near Spirne, the enemy advanced by 100 meters. West of Khromove, the “Khortytsia” OSG forces conducted several unsuccessful counterattacks. Positional battles were ongoing near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka.
• The Russian forces recently advanced northeast of New York. They repelled Ukrainian attacks near Shumy and Pivdenne.
• The adversary executed the following deployments:
  • a battalion from the Volunteer Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade “Svyatoy Georgiy” – to the east of Bohdanivka;
  • an assault company from the composition of the 1307th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops – to the north and northwest of Klishchiivka within the advance sector of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps; 
  • up to two assault companies of the 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps – to the east of Klishchiivka. 
• The 98th Airborne Division changed the direction of its advance and is moving in full formation towards Chasiv Yar. The division maintains a battle order in a single echelon, with its regiments progressing as follows:
  • the 217th Airborne Regiment towards Hryhorivka, 
  • the 299th Airborne Regiment towards Bohdanivka, 
  • and the 331st Airborne Regiment towards Ivanivske. 
• On the Avdiivka direction, the situation remains critical on the northern flank. The enemy’s advance has been partially halted and the rocade route Orlivka – Avdiivka Coking Plant remains under the control the “Tavria” OSG forces. The enemy is actively deploys reserves into the battle to change the situation.
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, battles continue on the northern outskirts of Novomykhailivka. The enemy is increasing pressure from the south but cannot break through to the outskirts of the village. Russian forces have advanced to the eastern outskirts of Heorhiivka, where they are consolidating. The 155th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet has moved to the eastern outskirts of Novomykhailivka along Lenin Street. Positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Pobieda. Russian forces have advanced to the north of Mykilske and to the east of Vuhledar in the direction of the Pivdennodonbaska Mine.
• On the Berdyansk direction, in the area of Novodonetske, the Russian 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade attempted to improve its tactical position by deploying several assault groups. These groups were promptly detected and repelled to the original line.
• Positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Zolota Nyva and Pryiutne.
• Tokmak direction: The forward units of the 70th and 71st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Russian 42nd Motorized Rifle Division made several attempts to break through to the southern outskirts of Robotyne, but did not achieve success.
• Kherson direction: In the area of Krynky, the enemy replaced the 337th and 328th Air Assault Regiments of the 104th Air Assault Division with the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division and the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 18th Army. Their attack was repelled. At the same time, the forces of the “Odesa” OSG advanced in the eastern parts of Krynky. Positional battles are ongoing.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy’s naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship;
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship;
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier, with a total salvo of 8 Kalibr cruise missiles.
• At the Sevastopol base, the following vessels are stationed:
  • patrol ships of the 1135M project “Pytivyy,” 1135 project “Ladnyy,”
  • a small missile ship of the 22800 project “Tsiklon,”
  • large landing ships of the 775/II project “Yamal,” 775/III project “Azov,” 1171 project “Nikolay Filchenkov,” 12411 project “Naberezhnye Chelny,”
  • small anti-submarine ships of the 1124M project “Kasimov,” “Muromets,” “Yeysk,”
  • sea minesweepers of the 266M project “Kovrovets,” “Ivan Golubets,” 12660 project “Zheleznyakov,”
  • base minesweepers of the 12700 project “Georgiy Kurbatov,” “Ivan Antonov,”
  • 7 subversive boats of the 03160 project, 3 – project 21980, 3 – project 02510,
  • medium reconnaissance ships of the 18280 project “Ivan Khurs,” 861M project “Ekvator.”
• At the Novoozerne base, there is a small missile ship of the 12411 project “P-60.”

Change in enemy disposition:  

• Near Horlivka, the UAV unit “Russian Hawks” from the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment is operating.
• The 239th and 80th Tank Regiments of the 90th Tank Division (41st Army), 21st, 30th, and 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades (2nd Army), and the 9th and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 1st Army Corps are active on the Avdiivka direction.
• On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (58th Army) is in action. Near Robotyne, the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (58th Army) is active, near Kamianske – the 10th BARS detachment, and near Novoandriivka – the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division (58th Army).

Possible operation situation developments: 

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• The adversary will attempt to cut off the O0542 road on the section from Avdiivka to Lastochkyne, bypassing the Avdiivka Coking Plant from the east and southeast through the “Ivushka” gardening community.
• The breach in the defense of the “Tavria” OSG and the subsequent advance of the enemy’s forward units from the eastern and southeastern sectors of the Avdiivka Coking Plant territory, reaching the line of the “Brevno” restaurant – Avdiivka vehicle station – “Ivushka” gardening community – western edge of the sand quarry, would mark the end of organized and cohesive defense of Avdiivka. The enemy is sufficiently close to achieving this objective.
• The concentration and deployment of additional enemy units and formations northwest of Volnovakha (e.g. the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from near Bakhmut) will mark the beginning of a change in the direction of the advance for the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, which would deploy its front to the south.
• The Russian command is gradually reinforcing its formation in the northern and central parts of the Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, given that the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps, reinforced by the 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops, continues its operations in the directions of Syhnalne–Novomykhailivka and Stepne–Novomykhailivka.
• The adversary will reinforce its grouping in the Novomykhailivka area with the 103rd and 163rd Tank Regiments of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army or the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps.
• The command of the enemy’s “Dnieper” operational grouping in the Krynky area will attempt to completely prevent any advance of the “Odesa” OSG forces towards Kozachi Lagery, Oleshky Pisky, and especially toward the T2206 road. The enemy will seek to create favorable conditions for delivering a decisive strike to eliminate this foothold completely.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 08.02.24  

Personnel – almost 392,380 people (+910); 

Tanks – 6,383 (+11); 

Armored combat vehicles – 11,899 (+20); 

Artillery systems – 9,411 (+24);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 980 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 666 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,513 (+27);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,191 (+14);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,880 (+31);

Boats/ships – 25 (0).

Humanitarian+general

• President Zelensky dismissed General Valeriy Zaluzhny and replaced him with General Oleksandr Syrskyi at the position of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 105 towns and villages and 48 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 1 civilian was reported dead and 15 injured in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• Overnight on February 8, 2024, the adversary launched 17 “Shahed-136/131” strike UAVs from Cape Chauda in Crimea. 11 drones were destroyed within Mykolaiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• Around 00:30 on February 8, Russian forces conducted a mass rocket attack on Selydove, Donetsk Oblast. As a result of the attack, a 50-year-old woman was killed. Seven civilians were injured, including a 6-year-old boy.
• A bulk carrier carrying humanitarian wheat bound for Nigeria is currently traversing the Ukrainian maritime corridor. This marks the first vessel in 2024 chartered by the UN World Food Programme as part of the Grain From Ukraine initiative.
• According to official records, 1,200 residents of Zaporizhzhya Oblast are currently held captive by the Russian authorities. However, this number may be significantly higher. Among them are the mayor of Dniprorudne, Yevhen Matviyev, who has been in captivity for almost two years, and journalist Irina Levchenko from Melitopol.
• Residents of several towns in the south of Ukraine lack access to YouTube, the Google search engine, Gmail, and other services, the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports. This move not only tightens the enemy’s grip on the information space but also forces people to use “Russian alternatives.” The Center notes that Yandex, the Russian tech company, is known to provide information to the occupiers and assist in tracking the movements of Ukrainians in the temporarily occupied territories.

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