Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 10.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia”, on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 Russian attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 14 Russian attacks near Bilohorivka, Terny, and Yampolivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 22 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 33 enemy attacks in the area of Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy  near Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, south of Zolota Nyva, north of Pryiutne,  where the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 21 enemy attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks west of Novopokrovka, Verbove and in the area of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, on the Kherson direction the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 4 unsuccessful assault attempts.

General conclusion:

  • The visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu could suggest that the adversary’s “Zapad” Operational Grouping is reevaluating certain aspects of its ongoing offensive operation along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line after intense attacks in January yielded only minimal tactical advancements in this operational area.
  • The focus of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the Kupyansk direction suggests a potential change in the adversary’s primary attack from the Avdiivka direction to Kupyansk.
  • The adversary on the Avdiivka direction is close to successfully completing the operation to capture Avdiivka.
  • The tactical situation on the Avdiivka direction is displaying an unfavorable trend for the “Tavriya” OSG. The enemy has come close to establishing fire control over the northern logistical route along the O0542 Orlivka – Lastochkyne – Avdiivka road, which will disrupt the steady logistics of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ grouping defending Avdiivka. The southern ATP-100 logistical route, Tonenke – Severne – Orlovske, is under intense enemy fire from a distance of about 2 km.
  • Further attempts to hold the Avdiivka defense sector without improving the situation in the area of the Avdiivka Coking Plant and pushing back the enemy to the Vodyane – Opytne line will pose an increased encirclement threat to the “Tavriya” OSG.
  • In the Novomykhailivka area, the enemy employs tactics to isolate specific territories and “Tavriya” OSG units in order to accomplish its tactical objectives in this area.
  • Russian actions in the Novomykhailivka area are meant to displace the “Tavriya” OSG units from the entire territory east of the O0532 Vuhledar – Maryinka road, primarily from the area north of Volodymyrivka. This explains Russian attempts to break through towards Vodyane and to flank and encircle these units further north.
  • The Russian military formation “Coordination Center of Aid to Novorossiya” is training UAV operators on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky. The CCAN is associated with the militarized “Russian Imperial Legion” organization.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There were 111 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, heavy fighting continues in the area of Synkivka, north of Tabaivka, and west of Novoselivske. Positional battles have also been ongoing near Ivanivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, in the Serebryansk Forest, the “Khortytsia” OSG units pushed back the enemy by 200 meters. The adversary has slightly advanced to the east in the area of the industrial zone of Bilohorivka and Terny. Positional battles have been ongoing near Terny, Yampolivka, Dibrova, and Hryhorivka.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy has made minor progress in the area of Klishchiivka and towards Ivanivske. Units of the Russian 106th Airborne Division have captured several positions near Vesele. The 98th Airborne Division has advanced west of Bakhmut, seized several positions, and continues to advance along the O0506 highway from Khromove to Chasiv Yar.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG units have advanced west of Horlivka.
  • Positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the adversary continues to concentrate efforts to break through to the Avdiivka motor depot and Fire Station No. 13, successfully implementing their plan to bypass the Avdiivka Coking Plant from the east and southeast. Advanced units of the 114th and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades have advanced over the past few days into the “Ivushka” garden community to Mychurin Street and Railway Alley, reaching the overpass above the railway near the bend of Chystiakov Street, attempting to gain control of the overpass. The front line in this area is located 500 meters from the Avdiivka motor depot and less than 1 km from the “Brevno” restaurant.
  • The enemy is close to encircling Avdiivka. The distance between the combat formations of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps in the “Ivushka” garden community and the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army north of Opytne is 5.4 km.
  • On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy has been pushed back from the northeast outskirts of Novomykhailivske. In Heorhiivka, the enemy has advanced 200 meters and is attacking towards Pobieda, where they have advanced 1 km from Road N15. South of Novomykhailivka, the enemy 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is attempting to break through from Solodke towards Vodyane, with the intermediate task of reaching the O0532 Road while simultaneously advancing towards the southern approaches to Novomykhailivka.
  • Berdyansk direction: the “Tavriya” OSG repelled Russian attacks south of Zolota Nyva and north of Pryiutne.
  • Tokmak direction: Positional battles continued near Robotyne, west of Verbove, west of Novopokrovka, and near Novoprokopivka.
  • Kherson direction, “Odesa” OSG troops achieved minor success in Krynky. Russian forces reduced the intensity of shelling on Ukrainian positions and increasingly conduct assaults without armored vehicles due to significant losses.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 4 ships.
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition: not detected.

Escalation indicators:

  • The enemy is close to encircling Avdiivka and will escalate efforts in this area.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • The breach in the defense of the “Tavria” OSG and the subsequent advance of the enemy’s forward units from the eastern and southeastern sectors of the Avdiivka Coking Plant territory, reaching the line of the “Brevno” restaurant – Avdiivka vehicle station – “Ivushka” gardening community – western edge of the sand quarry, would mark the end of organized and cohesive defense of Avdiivka.
  • The adversary will reinforce its grouping in the Novomykhailivka area with the 103rd and 163rd Tank Regiments of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army or the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps.
  • The Russian command is gradually reinforcing its formation in the northern and central parts of the Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, given that the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps, reinforced by the 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops, continues its operations in the directions of Syhnalne–Novomykhailivka and Stepne–Novomykhailivka.
  • In the area of Novomykhailivka, the enemy will initially attempt to split the combat formations of the “Tavriya” OSG in the northern part of the Vuhledar bulge, in the general direction of Novomykhailivka – Paraskoviivka – Kostyantynivka. Subsequently, they will attack south of Vodyane thus compelling the “Tavriya” OSG to withdraw from its positions near Volodymyrivka and north of Mykilske.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.02.24 

Personnel – almost 394б270 people (+960);

Tanks – 6,394 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,942 (+21);

Artillery systems – 9,459 (+24);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 981 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 666 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,551 (+38);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,235 (+26);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,881 (0);

Boats/ships – 25 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 145 towns and villages and 82 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • In Kharkiv, due to an attack by Russian drones on a gasoline storage facility overnight on February 10, seven people were killed. Among them was an entire family – a couple and three children. Additionally, in another house, a 66-year-old man and his 65-year-old wife were killed. 57 people were reported injured.
  • During the night of February 10, Russian occupiers launched three attacks on port and civilian infrastructure in Odesa Oblast using “Shahed” drones. Four people were injured in the attacks.
  • During the past day, Russian forces killed one civilian and injured five others in Kherson Oblast. They carried out 66 shelling attacks across the region, with 52 of them targeting Kherson.
  • Another child has been returned from the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. At the start of the full-scale war, the girl was staying with her grandparents. They could not leave immediately as the grandmother was seriously ill. It took two years to bring the girl home to her mother.
  • In Kherson Oblast, a building belonging to the head of the occupation administration in Nova Mayachka, Gennadiy Kolomoyets, known by the nickname “Tankist”, was destroyed by a Ukrainian drone.

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