Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 12.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on  the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 Russian attacks near Ivanivka and Tabaivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 3 enemy attacks near Bilohorivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 19 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 41 enemy attacks in the area of Avdiivka, south of Tonenke and near Pervomaiske and Nevelske.  On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobeda and Novomykhailivka, repelling 32 enemy attacks. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack north of Pryiutne. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled an enemy attack near Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 1 unsuccessful assault attempt.

General conclusion:

  • On the Tavriya direction, the enemy is increasingly deploying armored groups during assault operations.
  • Both sides are constantly vying for initiative on the Zaporizhzhia direction with neither side prioritizing the frontline.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • There have been 100 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, battles continue for Synkivka and in the Kyslivka area. Russian forces attacked the flank of the “Khortytsia” OSG forces near Synkivka, east of Bilohorivka. Positional battles persisted near Orlyanske, Krokhmalne, Ivanivka, and Tabaivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, the enemy achieved success in the industrial zone near Bilohorivka and made some progress near Terny. Positional battles continued near Torske, Yampolivka, Dibrova, and Serebryansk forestry.
  • On the Bakhmut direction, intense counterattacks took place in the Klishchiivka area; the enemy conducted assault operations towards Ivanivka. A challenging situation is in the Bohdanivka area, where Russian forces have made advancements and are located 2 km from Chasiv Yar.
  • Positional battles are ongoing near Andriivka, Mayorske, Pivdenne, and New York.
  • On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy is advancing through the residential sector to the southeast of Avdiivka Coking Plant, capturing its significant part and moving up to 200 meters towards the fire station, experiencing a substantial slowdown in progress.
  • Russian forces recently advanced along the Railway Alley north of Avdiivka, to the east of Nevelske, progressing along Tymiryazev and SilgospTekhnika streets in the north of Avdiivka and near Pervomaiske. Positional battles took place in the areas of Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, near Tonenke, Severne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. The enemy continues attempts to block the main logistical route of the Defense Forces in the Avdiivka area.
  • On the Shakhtarsk direction, the situation remains critical.
  • Russian forces advanced to the west of Solodke. The “Tavriya” OSG forces advanced to Pavlivka. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobeda, and Novomykhailivka.
  • During the last year, Russian forces constructed engineering barriers using railway cars, coupling them together and welding them to the railway tracks. The barrier extends from the occupied Olenivka (south of Donetsk) to Volnovakha, with an approximate length of up to 30 km.
  • Berdyansk Direction: Russian forces have advanced towards Pryiutne, but the “Tavriya” OSG forces  repelled Russian attacks north of the village.
  • Tokmak Direction: Russian forces have recently made some progress to the west of Robotyne and 1 km northwest of Verbove. Positional battles persisted near Robotyne, Novopokrovka, and to the west of Verbove.
  • Kherson Direction: The “Odesa” OSG forces have recently achieved minor territorial gains in Krynky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
    • Black Sea: 5 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Change in enemy disposition:

  • The 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division is advancing towards Chasiv Yar, while the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade is engaged in combat near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
  • In the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, the 77th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army is active. Near Pryiutne, the 14th Separate SOF Brigade is in action. In the area of Urozhaine, units of the 11th Army of the Russian Air Forces and Air Defense, as well as the 336th Separate Marine Brigade of the 11th Army Corps of the  Russian Baltic Sea Fleet, are operating. In the vicinity of Vremivka, the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army is involved in combat. The 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army is active near Chervone.

Escalation indicators:

  • The enemy is close to encircling Avdiivka and is intensifying efforts in this area.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • The breach in the defense of the “Tavria” OSG and the subsequent advance of the enemy’s forward units from the eastern and southeastern sectors of the Avdiivka Coking Plant territory, reaching the line of the “Brevno” restaurant – Avdiivka vehicle station – “Ivushka” gardening community – western edge of the sand quarry, would mark the end of organized and cohesive defense of Avdiivka.
  • In the area of Novomykhailivka, the enemy will initially attempt to split the combat formations of the “Tavriya” OSG in the northern part of the Vuhledar bulge, in the general direction of Novomykhailivka – Paraskoviivka – Kostiantynivka. Subsequently, they will attack south of Vodyane thus compelling the “Tavriya” OSG to withdraw from its positions near Volodymyrivka and north of Mykilske.
  • The adversary will reinforce its grouping in the northern and central parts of the Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, particularly in the Novomykhailivka area with the 103rd and 163rd Tank Regiments of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army or the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.02.24 

Personnel – almost 395,990 people (+790);

Tanks – 6,416 (+10);

Armored combat vehicles – 11,977 (+21);

Artillery systems – 9,481 (+6);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 981 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 666 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,599 (+7);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,302 (+45);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,882 (+1);

Boats/ships – 25 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 97 towns and villages and 69 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 3 civilians were injured in Donetsk Oblast and 3 in Kherson Oblast. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the night of February 12, 2024, the adversary launched 17 Shahed-136/131 UAVs from the area of Primorsko-Akhtarsk, an air-launched Kh-59 missile (from the temporarily occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast) and S-300 surface-to-air guided missiles (from Belgorod Oblast). Ukrainian Air Defense destroyed 14 Shahed UAVs as well as the Kh-59 missile.
  • In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, an energy facility caught fire due to a Russian drone attack. More than 53 thousand residential consumers in Pavlohrad and surrounding areas as well as industrial facilities, including a factory and seven mines, were left without electricity, while 10 thousand residents in Ternivka were left without water.
  • Over the past week, Mykolaiv faced heavy shelling from Russian forces, who employed cunning tactics. On the night of February 11, they launched drone groups four times, with intervals of 30-60 minutes, aiming to inflict more damage and target rescuers responding to the attacks, the head of Mykolayiv Oblast Military Administration Vitaliy Kim said. 
  • During the past week, the “Tavriya” OSG captured almost 25 Russian servicemen, with half of them captured in the last day, most notably on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

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