Russia’s war on Ukraine. 13.02.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Khortytsia” on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 Russian attacks near Synkivka and Tabaivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks near Terny and north of Vesele. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 7 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 29 enemy attacks in the area of Avdiivka, Tonenke and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy  near Heorhiivka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka,  repelling 35 enemy attacks. On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack south of Prechystivka. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled a Russian attack west of Novopokrovka.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 2 unsuccessful assault attempts.

General conclusion:

• The enemy has intensified the deployment of armored groups on the Avdiivka direction, aiming to assert firmer control over the captured territories.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

• There were 84 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy advanced 200 meters to bypass Tabaivka.
• Russian forces slightly advanced to the northwest of the Synkivka-Lyman area.
• Positional battles persisted near Ivanivka, Synkivka, Lake Lyman, Tabaivka, and Tymkivka.
• On the Lyman direction, in the Serebryansk Forest, encounter battles took place. Russian forces have slightly advanced to the east of Terny and are currently operating within 2 km of the outskirts of the village.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG troops have regained some tactical positions approximately 3 km east of Yampolivka. Positional battles persisted in Terny, Yampolivka, Dibrova, and Bilohorivka.
• On the Bakhmut direction, intense and complex battles continued in the areas of Klishchiivka, Bohdanivka, and Khromove. The enemy has advanced up to 1 km along the O0506 highway Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar in the direction of Khromove, into the fields north of Bohdanivka, and near Klishchiivka. Positional battles persisted near Bohdanivka, near Ivanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Mayorske, Pivdenne, and New York.
• On the Avdiivka direction, intense battles continues in the residential sector and west of the railway line to the southeast of the Avdiivka Coking Plant. The situation remains critical.
• The enemy troops have advanced into Avdiivka, crossing the railway line in Avdiivka, and consolidated in the suburban areas west of the railway. They have also moved 300 meters along Chystyakov Street and Zaliznychny Lane, and into the wood belt east of Opytne, with incursions into Pervomaiske.
• Positional battles persisted in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
• On the Shakhtarsk direction, the enemy has advanced 300 meters north and east of Novomykhailivka, and up to 100-150 meters within the village itself.
• The “Tavriya” OSG units made slight advancements northeast of Pobieda. The enemy advanced along the T0524 highway Vuhledar-Pobieda, towards Pobieda, and seized additional positions immediately south of the village. Positional battles persisted near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka.
• Berdyansk direction: the enemy has advanced towards Pryiutne, but the “Tavriya” OSG troops repelled Russian attacks north of the village.
• Russian forces have advanced 1 kilometer near Vodyane. Positional battles persisted near Prechystivka and Pryiutne.
• Tokmak direction: the “Tavriya” OSG forces advanced to the west of Pyatykhatky near Kamianske. Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Robotyne and Novopokrovka.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
  • Black Sea: 4 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 6 cruise missiles.
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army and the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Combined Arms Army operate near Svatove and Bilohorivka, respectively.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy is close to encircling Avdiivka and is escalating efforts in this area.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• The breach in the defense of the “Tavria” OSG and the subsequent advance of the enemy’s forward units from the eastern and southeastern sectors of the Avdiivka Coking Plant territory, reaching the line of the “Brevno” restaurant – Avdiivka vehicle station – “Ivushka” gardening community – western edge of the sand quarry, would mark the end of organized and cohesive defense of Avdiivka.
• In the area of Novomykhailivka, the enemy will initially attempt to split the combat formations of the “Tavriya” OSG in the northern part of the Vuhledar bulge, in the general direction of Novomykhailivka – Paraskoviivka – Kostiantynivka. Subsequently, they will attack south of Vodyane thus compelling the “Tavriya” OSG to withdraw from its positions near Volodymyrivka and north of Mykilske.
• The adversary command will reinforce its grouping in the northern and central parts of the Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, particularly in the Novomykhailivka area with the 103rd and 163rd Tank Regiments of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army or the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps.
• The Russian command will now begin to redeploy forces and assets on the Avdiivka direction, at least on a tactical level.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.02.24 

Personnel – almost 397,080  people (+1090);

Tanks- 6,424 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,004 (+27);

Artillery systems – 9,500 (+19);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 981 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 667 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,623 (+24);

Aircraft – 332 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,332 (+30);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 1,882 (0);

Boats/ships – 25 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 104 towns and villages and 117 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• Overnight on February 13, air defense units successfully neutralized 16 out of 23 enemy “Shahed” drones launched at Ukraine.
• Following a Russian attack overnight on February 13, one of the thermal power plants in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast ceased generating electricity. Restoring the plant’s operation, hampered by critical equipment damage, will be a lengthy process. While all consumers in Dnipro have been reconnected, the reconnection scheme lacks reliability due to the damage to the crucial energy facility.
• As a result of the overnight shelling in Dnipro, one hospital was evacuated, its heating system was turned off, and a significant number of palliative care patients were relocated. Additionally, the city mayor Borys Filatov mentioned that some schools in the city had to be closed due to heating problems caused by the attack.
• As a result of the Russian attack on the oil depot in the Nemyshlyanske district of Kharkiv on February 9, four rivers in the region have been contaminated. The contamination is not expected to affect the water quality in the city of Kharkiv.
• A new position has been established within the Office of the President of Ukraine, namely the Special Representative of the President of Ukraine for the Implementation of International Security Guarantees and the Development of Ukraine’s Defense Forces. Lieutenant General Yevhen Moysiuk has been appointed to this position. Prior to this appointment, Moysiuk served as a deputy to the former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeriy Zaluzhny.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

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